Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Reflections on fusion history, current events, and predictions for the 'fusion powered future.
Beryl
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Beryl »

Mainly because of this thread and the Price of Indium thread, I've been thinking quite a lot about investing some money into metals rather than "virtual cash" so I have a few questions that I believe some of you may be able to answer:

If someone was to invest in an amount of silver or other precious/rare metals, how (or "to whom") would they sell it?

Do any of you have any recommendations for "buyers" (people, businesses, or exchanges that would exchange your metal for money) or suppliers of metals (and what to expect from them, such as certificates of purity)?
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Richard Hull
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Richard Hull »

Investment metals have a special methodology.

Never buy metal market shares, metal futures, etc. Always "take delivery".

In general, the "spot prices" are for bullion amounts of metal 10,000 ounces or more. Needless to say a healthy premium is often commanded at time of purchase for coining or ingoting and small transaction overhead.

For spot prices check:

http://www.kitco.com/market/


Silver on the ounce in bar stock commands about a 10% or more surcharge over spot. Gold is similar. Never buy fancy forms of metals. Common ingots with weight and purity stamped on them is usually sufficient.

If you sell your metal, expect to recieve no more than spot, but never sell it for less either.

Every large city has a bunch of stores that sell and buy gold and silver for private individuals. Check your phone book in the yellow pages. Often these are specialty stores, but can be coin shops, or pawn shops. Know what spot is before buying and make your choices accordingly when purchasing.

example. US silver eagles command a stupid and rediculous premium over the far more pure Canadian maple leaf. Both are 1 troy ounce coins. (make sure the verbage is TROY ounce) the US coin can be $8.00 when spot is $6.50 while the maple leaf might be $7.70 and be an order of magnitude purer. All common bullion is rated as FINE metal or .999 pure as is the US coin. The Canadians claim .9999 . Another great option is to purchase old 1964 and earlier US coins. (.90 purity) This is probably the cheapest way to accumulate silver.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
AnGuy
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by AnGuy »

>In 1900, gold and silver were just leaving the scene as pocket ripping $1.00 silver cartwheels and heavy $20.00 gold pieces were left in the banks. All your paper money was either a gold or silver certificate redemable at any bank for the metals, if you had your truss on to haul'em away.


>Finally, How many of you think there is a pile of money in your personal savings bank with your name on it and all the other depositers names on it that represent your actual savings account balance that you can get to if a great fall comes?


Hold on a sec. Throughout history when the US dollar or any currency that was backed by precious metals faired no better. There were boom and busts all the time. In fact, when the dollar was under the gold, or silver standard, the economy have a severe depression every 10 to 15 years. There were also periods when the US dollar was faced high inflation on many occuations (usually during war or economic booms). During the 19th century there were many panics where people ran to the banks to get there money out, only to find it wasn't there. In fact during the 20th century the US faired much better than the 19th and 18th centuries.

Second, I would not be as concerned about the declining US dollar and inflation. For instance if we look at Japan, the economy has faced deflation for over a decade, depisite every effort by the Japanese goverment to induce inflation. And Japan is in far worse economic shape then the US! They import just about everything, have higher budget deficits and a mountain of national debt.

Personally I think the danger is deflation. If inflation was a real concern in the US, the long term interest rates would be substantial higher as investors would demand higher rates to offset the risks associated with inflation. Despite the Federal reserves action of raising short term rates, the long term rates have barely moved at all. In some instances the rates of long term rates have fallen. This is an indicator of lack of confidence in the economy.

Rising Commodity prices do not necessarily mean that inflation will happen. Inflation almost always occurs when the labor market is tight, where employment is easy to find and the average work week exceeds 40 hours per week. As it stands few business are hiring. Most of the employment growth is through temp agencies as business are unwilling to hire full time employees. The number of working hours per week is well off the late 1999s high. These all signal weakness in the labor market. Rising Commodity prices with weak labor markets leads to a period of stagflation. When this occurs, salaries remain flat but living costs rises (energy, food, housing). Unless the labor market improves, the economy falls into a recession, as consumers cut spending to preserve cash flow. Recessions can create periods of deflation, because consumers stop spending and this forces business to lower prices to attract consumers to buy thier products. At some point consumers hold back spending even more to hold out for better pricing. This creates an economic death spirl which un-employment soars and prices endlessly fall.


Despite past bank runs (where consumers run to the banks and withdrawl all their money to put under the mattress), there have been none since the Federal reserve had created the FDIC. This is an insurance program that protects personal bank accts up to $100K against a bank failure. In the 1980's the US had the collapse of the S&L's no one lost their money because the US gov't stepped up and made sure everyone got their money. Even bank accounts that were not FDIC insured, where covered by Uncle Sam. The gov't was not going to take the risk that consumers would lose confidence in the banking system. However, holding your money in a Money market account is not FDIC insured. If you are concerned about the risk to your money you can move it to an FDIC insured account. You can also do this with your 401K or IRA. You can also invest your money in treasury bills, which is virtually the same as FDIC accounts.


[Disclaimer: The following text isn't investment advice. These are my views and should not be accepted blindly for your own personal investments. I am not a financial planner nor am would I consider myself a professional in financial services]

Personally I have reservations about putting money into precious metals. PMs are probably not substantial safer than paper currencies. The price of PMs is dictated by supply and demand. Many gov't have substantial PM reserves and would dump them on the open market to protect the value of their currencies. In fact, Germany has announced several times that it may sell PM reserves if the price is right. Therefore, its probably unlikely that you can preserve wealth with PMs. Investment in the energy industry may be a safer bet since few countries can dump oil or natural gas on the market. However, like PM, the price of energy is limited to supply and demand. If the global economy enters a severe recession or a depression, demand for energy will fall causing prices to fall as well.

For now, all of my money is in either cash or short term AA or better bonds. I fear deflation more than I fear inflation. I am not particularly concerned about the falling dollar, because I believe its limited. The rest of the world is dependant on exports to America. Both European and Asian economies are based upon exports. Europe uses exports to finance their domestic entitlement (retirement, and health benefits) programs. Asian countries have weak domestic demand for goods and services and use exports for growth. If the dollar depreciates, americans will no longer be able to afford imported goods. Overseas economies will slide into deflation because their factories will have excess capacity and too few consumers to buy goods. This will likely make the US dollar more apealing to investors and the dollar is still the world's reserve currency.

Although, I have not invested in any energy companies yet, because I believe the price of Oil will fall sometime this year. This is because there are 18 new oil production projects coming online this year. This is likely to improve supply. Over the longer term, I see oil higher because of oil depletion. Fields in North sea, indonesia are drying up. Russian production peaked in 1987, Many of the current Middle east fields in production are nearing peak or are already in decline (google the Ghawar oil field), Mexico's PMEX has announced production will peak by 2006.

However, the recent rise of oil may have to do more with refining capacity than depletion. From my research, I discovered that we have a lack of refining capacity of heavy crude. Most of the refineries in Asia can only process light crude. The US and Europe refineries can process heavy crude, however they cannot process enough to meet internal demand. If additional heavy crude refineries came on line Oil prices would fall. However, There isn't much available real estate in the US for building refineries, and many Americans and Europeans don't want them built in their backyards anyway.

The US economy has replaced one bubble with another, in the late 90's it was the Tech and Equity bubble. Today it is an asset and real estate bubble. Consumers have over extended themselves by purchasing new homes. Last year 37% of all new mortgages were ARM's or Adjustable Rate Mortgages. These loans float provide borrowers with very low rates at a fixed interest rate for about 2 to 5 years. After that period the rate flow with the market rate. If these borrowers were unable to afford a 15 or 30 year mortgage, its unlikely they well be able to afford their existing mortgage, once the loan floats with the market interest rates. Those that believe the rise of housing prices will continue indefinately are foolish.

Because of the risk involved with consumers using these types of loans, banks have acted to protect themselves. Rather than assume the loan risk themselves they have push off the risks to investors and other institutions. They make money by charging loan processing fees and other fees for servicing the debt. Then they sell bonds on the open market or other businesses. This method is a win win situation from them. If the borrower defaults on the loan, The back can forclose on the loan, sell the property, pay off the loan to the bond holders. If the property has gone up in value the bank pockets the difference. If the property declines in value, its the bond holder that assumes the loss. Oh, and the bank can also charge fees for the forclosure to the bond holders, even if it sells at a loss!

The next question in your mind probably is, who are all these bond holders that are assuming this risk! Well some of it bought by REIT (or Real estate investment trusts), The remainer is financed through GSE (or Government sponsered Entities). The US currency sponsers two companies for home mortgages. They are Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac. They were established in the 1970s to make houses loans more affordable for low income families. Howerver over time, lending practices and the type of loans offer have evolved. Back in the 1970's the GSEs required substantial downpayments. Today, borrows need not put a dime for a downpayment. A homebuyer wantabe can walk in a buy a home with no saves or a downpayment. The size of loans offered by the GSE has also grown substantially. Consumers can now take out loans as large as $400K!. Borrowers can also now skip a payment or two a year. The GSE's aren't worried about these loans because housing prices are rising. If the borrower is unable to afford the loan, the GSE can just forclose on the loan. So what happens when housing prices fall?!?! That's something that GSE's simply don't think about these days!

In addition, the majority of loans issued by the GSEs are long term fixed rates (15,20,30 year loans, and now ever 40 years!). This means that over the entire life of the loan, the borrow pays a fixed payment, no matter how high or low the market interest rates move. Consumers lend to borrow money using fixed rates, so that don't get trapped with a rising mortgage payment. However, the GSE's cannot find enough bond holders willing to purchase 20 or 30 year bonds. Most bonds are sold with 10 year or less maturies. So the GSE have to do some finance engineering to make up the difference. The sell shorter term bonds (2,5, 10 years) to bond holders and give the cash to the borrower. When the bond reaches maturity they have to issue more short term bonds, to pay off the previous bonds. They continue to do this until the borrowers loan is paid off. What if the interest rates rise? Well they estimate the expected interest rates over the life of the loan and add that cost into the loan the borrower gets. This is why short term rates are always lower than long term rates. What if the interest rates rise above thier estimates? Well they assume a loss. In instances they can purchase insurance to cover potential loses. However, when you assume Trillions in loans there are limits. If we see a sigificant change in the housing market and loan defaults, the GSEs will be in serious trouble.

Currently Freddie Mac is already under scrutiny for lack of proper reserve capital reserves. Personally I believe the GSE will make the S&L crisis of the 1980s look like a mosquito bite.



I hope you found this information enlighting.
AG
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Richard Hull
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Richard Hull »

The bottom line is that in the complicated world of today all economics is the business of economic engineering and not economic foundation.

I have never found a knowledgable source in economics that could tell me a simple ratio. I don't think all of the kings horses or all the kings men have a way of knowing. If all the world's physical assets were put in a pile (this doesn't include one dime of the world accounts receivables)............... and all of the wolrd's physically demanded debt placed in another pile..........What is the ratio of real physical goods products and owned items of value to all debt both national, public and private ........1:10?...1:50?....1:100? What? How bankrupt is the planetary economy? As it is merrily sailing along at present, what is genuine wealth in the mind of modern man in the current economy? What would it be in the more realistic pay as you go economy of a world in a deep, depression should all debt be called tomorrow morning?

401 k's are no more valuable that the stability of the entire economy at any given moment as the money they pay out is not real savings, but portions of that being paid in daily, OR cash coming from various investments being sold at market perceived value.

Greenbacks are no more valuable than the public confidence that most of their fellows do not have a million of them in there immediate personal posession at any one time. (if everyone is a millionaire bread is $3,200 per loaf.)

Precious metals are no more valuable that their rarity coupled with their value in science and industry.

Given a 20 kilo ingot of gold or a loaf of bread the starving man might just choose the bread.

Real wealth is in services, land or goods only . All other tokens of defered wealth are images of tokenized wealth and are no more valuable than there perceived value compared to a loaf of bread of a warm shelter in time of need.

The real world is the one we live in. The condition of that world determines the value of all tokens of defered wealth. Usable, valued goods, services, skills, and property will forever be wealth. All else are tokens of defered wealth NOT IN HAND.
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
AnGuy
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by AnGuy »

>If all the world's physical assets were put in a pile (this doesn't include one dime of the world accounts receivables)............... and all of the wolrd's physically demanded debt placed in another pile..........What is the ratio of real physical goods products and owned items of value to all debt both national, public and private ........1:10?...1:50?....1:100? What? How bankrupt is the planetary economy?

What you asking is very complicated. Especially when you consider variables such as volitile prices and the value of intelletectual knowledge. For instance If a business spends two billions to develop technology, there is a intrinsic value for that technology. If you took all of the investment in todays infrastructure for the entire world, it would be measured in petadollars (thousands of trillions).

However if for instance, when oil depetion hits the market, trillions in assets will become worthless, since they all are dependant on oil to operating (road vehicles, trains, plains, power plants, gas stations, auto dealerships, factories, petrochemical plants, farms dependant upon oil based fertilizer, ships, etc). Most of it needs to be replaced with newer equipment, and some of it can't never be replaced. The lives of billions are also soly dependant on oil. If oil suddenly becomes scarce, billions will starve and probably perish. And as we can see, the world is increasing becoming dependant on oil even as production nears its peak. Our biggest fear may not be a drastic change in lifestyle, but life itself if World war 3 breaks out over oil.

I have no crystal ball to tell me what our future has in store, but with so many big issues looming its difficult for me to see a bright future ahead. I think some our best days of our lives are already behind us, and a new era of poverty and dispair is less than a decade away. This is one conclusion I hope to be proven wrong!

>Given a 20 kilo ingot of gold or a loaf of bread the starving man might just choose the bread.

Exactly, this is why investing in PM's may not be very wise investment. For a something to have future value, is very dependant on if others believe it has value and are willing to exchange it for other goods or services.
ChrisSmolinski
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by ChrisSmolinski »

Anonymous Guy wrote:
> I have no crystal ball to tell me what our future has in store, but with so
many big issues looming its difficult for me to see a bright future ahead. I
think some our best days of our lives are already behind us, and a new era of
poverty and dispair is less than a decade away. This is one conclusion I hope
to be proven wrong!

Fortunately, I think you will be proven wrong

Forecasts of imminent doom have always been with us. Man is easily able to
adapt to change, provided that change is not too drastic, in which case w're
only slightly less able to adapt, with a little more discomfort.

Oil will not suddently become unavailable, except in the case of a sudden
disruption in supply due to war/etc. Once we reach the point of limited
resources, the price will start to climb, which will push both alternatives to oil,
as well as methods of creating our own oil and petroleum products from more
available materials. We've been told for the last 50+ years that proven oil
reserves have peaked, yet somehow we keep finding MORE of the stuff. And
improved technology lets us use previously non-economical deposits.

I'm not pessimistic about the future. The future WILL BE better. The past was
NOT better. The "good old days" were not good. The nickel candy bar cost
more of your workday to earn than it does today. Will progress be an un-
interrupted straight line up? Of course not, there will always be bumps, and
short term setbacks. But I'm sure man will get through them, at least for a few
thousand more years.
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Richard Hull
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Richard Hull »

You are very optimistic Chris. More oil can always be found if the price is pretty and folks are willing to shell out for it. Worthless reserves, hard to extract, will become valuable assets, etc. Still, there is a limit.

America's core manufacturing capability is all but gone now as we become an information society selling "air" and good wishes. The infrastructure itself is the work for the elite nations.

I don't know, but one morning someone in a massive, but trailing manufacturing nation will wake up and realize they have the information folks by the short hairs.

I feel that no matter how hard it gets or what comes along, including global thermonuclear war, we will have little trouble adapting and reverting to at least an 1890's to 1910 level of production and energy capability, perhaps with vastly fewer souls on the planet.

Again, real wealth is what you hold as fixed, on site, assets coupled with its immediate, sustainable and, hopefully, recirculating, recyclable value. Skills at the lowest, hands-on, levels are of real recirculating value. Plumbing, Carpentry, electrical, electronic, mechanical repair etc. These guys may become the captains of industry in future and not the programmers and information age hacks or the money shufflers taking our money out of our pockets, playing with it and giving us a quarterly receipt telling us how rich we are in relation to all that is no longer there. We play with and accept perceived value as opposed to goods. The goods we do take in leave us oddly in debt inspite of good IRA and 401K reports. This is the bulk of America, not just a few idiots on a mindless buying spree.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
AnGuy
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by AnGuy »

>Fortunately, I think you will be proven wrong

I hope so!

> Once we reach the point of limited resources, the price will start to climb, which will push both alternatives to oil, as well as methods of creating our own oil and petroleum products from more available materials.

Well It looks like the cost of Oil is moving up! Unfortunately replacing oil isn't that simple. All the talk about replacing oil with hydrogen, Biodiesel, Ethanol is a farse! In fact all of those renewable fuels require Oil and gas to produce. Hydrogen is produced from natural gas. Ethanol needs to be distilled which requires a massive heat source (currently it's oil). Biodiesel need both hydrogen and a heat source. We also use Oil and N-gas to produce fertizlier which would be required to grow corn or soy to produce ethanol or biodiesel. If you want to learn more about the farse of renewable fuels check out www.energybulletin.net. They have recently posted a detailed article that debunks the hydrogen economy.

Now that the cost of oil is on the rise we can see some minor global discomfort. Russia is nationalizing Oil and Gas resources, China and India are traveling the globe in search of oil and N-gas contracts. The US has mobilized its forces in the Middle East. If the prices continue to rise this year, A new cold war and arms race will begin between the major nations fighting to secure the dwindling oil resources. Eventually, as the supplies get tighter a hot war could develop. On the other hand, a global recession could cool things off because it would reduce demand (at least temporarily).



> Of course not, there will always be bumps, and
short term setbacks

Depends on what you mean "short term setbacks": Geological or Human live span?

Unless a realistic subsitute is found quickly we are headed for a major setback. The World cannot sustain a population of 6+ Billion Humans without oil. We consume something like 500 exajoules to support the current infrastructure and its going to be very damn difficult to find a substitute. Not to mention the cost of changing the infrastructure to something else than oil. All those cars, trucks, planes, factories require oil. Either we need to find a very large source of energy or we need to reduce the population. I think the latter is likely to happen first. After all, we are inherently a self-destructive species. As a species we still can't seem to get along and respect either others beliefs. When the store selfs go bare, the ugly side of human nature reappears.
3l
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by 3l »

Hi AG:

You guys have more optimism than I currently possess.
I am current going more rural....infrasture costs in taxes have trippled.
The concept of the city is going tits up...too costly.
Give me the county anytime.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by AnGuy »

>You guys have more optimism
I do?

>I am current going more rural
Actually I was thinking the same. Recently I've thinking about buying a farm or large amount of land in some rural region, in perhaps a decade. Currently, I live in the NorthEast and have a very profitable business. At this point I think it would be prudent to continue to run my business while to going is good.

However, I am having difficult of identify a region that would be appropriate. I think it would be better to avoid northern regions because of difficulty of finding heating fuel for the winter. Even if I have sufficient funds, I suspect the gov't could impose rationing rather than letting price dictate supply. Coal could be an option, but who knows if gov't will permit home owners to burn coal because of environmental issues. Wood will only last so long and isn't all that more environmental friendly than coal.

On the other hand, If global warming becomes more severe, living in the south could also be a bad move. If Oil and NGas supplies dry up Coal and other heavy carbon fuels are likely be used. This would likely dramatically increase CO2 emissions and accelerate global warming. The US South East is vunerable to Hurricanes and other extreme weather events. Before the sea level rise, I think the number and severity of storms would increase as the system works off excess thermal energy.

The most of the south west is too dry and arid to consider. Plus the land is not suitable for growing crops.

The Ideal region would have:
1. Very mild winters so that heating costs are very low, and heating fuel rationing would not be a significant issue.
2. Fertial land where one can at least plant a garden to suppliment ones diet, if food rationing becomes an issue.
3. Plenty of water and where the water doesn't have to be piped in from a distance.
4. Good transportation infrastructure for the population in the region. Access Rail or some form of public ground transportation. You going to want to be able to get delivery of goods to the local stores. If the nearest store is 100 miles away its may be difficult to get there. Gasoline becomes scarce at any price because of gov't rationing. If the car becomes uneconomical I believe a good portion of the US highway would be converted to rail. All they would need to do is lay track over the road bed. Before the car, the Railroad was the only US transportation system.
5. Good Local Medical faculties. Everyone gets sick!
6. Access to high speed Internet. If I could only keep access to one medium (TV, Radio, Telephone, Internet, etc), for me, it would be the internet. I could care less about all the rest.
3l
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by 3l »

Hi AG:

You have just described Mississippi.
Shock!
Rail travel and shipping are still availible here.
The area has fertile soil and loads of rainfall.
I plan to raise trout and catfish in a small aquaculture tank.
You can plant virtually any plant in Mississippi and it will grow
fairly well.
Shallow surface wells are possible with only a 100 ft well hole.
I live near Oxford Ms...All the eminities you describe exist there.
I plan to live within 40 miles of the city. I am moving to take advantage of a crazy sellers market in Oxford. Land prices are in orbit in the city limits. I purchased the property in '96 for about
45k$ ,it is worth 70K$ (7 miles outside the central core) now. Land retails for 20k$+ per acre in town and $700/acre out of town. A no brainer!

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Mike Veldman
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Mike Veldman »

I'm curious what the draw is to your little town. LIke I'm curious what the draw is to the one I live in. The living and growing, and the infrastructure conditions you describe are similar. Our major industry is the university, with a few minor others, but the people are moving in like crazy. Land prices in town can run to 12k an acre, close outside, 4k an acre, ten miles out, west, south or north 2.5k an acre, east is a little less at 2k. We bought ten acres east of town in 96 and paid 1k an acre for it. Some close friends bought 35 acres two miles further east of us and paied 1.5k, but they have frontage on a state highway, we're a mile from the highway. Within six months of our purchase the guy we bought from offered us 1.5k to buy it back. But very few sale signs stay up even in the rural areas for long. When I moved into this house twenty years back it was pretty rural, I was on the eastern outskirts of town. I built a raised deck 12' above the patio on the east side of my house to sit and look through my telescopes. I did this to clear the tree line south of me. I could look to the east, north and south and not see a light. Now the entire panorama is dotted with yard lights. So I drive ten miles east to the new place to look at the stars, but in the last ten years the dots on the horizon have been growing. I guess a lot of people like me are moving to the country.

mike
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by AnGuy »

>I'm curious what the draw is to your little town. LIke I'm curious what the draw is to the one I live in.

Its not a local phenomena. Here in the northeast Builders can't build fast enough. They contine to build even when there is over a foot of snow on the ground. Where there was some wooded areas, there are now McManisons on tiny lots. Prices have more than doubled since 2000. In 2000, a small raised ranch was less than $200K, Today they are over $400K for a fixer'up'er. Tiny Condos (< 900 Sq feet) sell in the $300-$350K range. And this isn't the expensive area. There, the homes now average above $750K for a small 1800 Sq foot home with no land and no garage. Its truely ridiculous. Few folks can really afford to buy these homes, but lenders are sure willing to help them with the financing. The stock mania of the late 90's has now morphed into a real estate mania. People I bump into now talk about purchasing a vacation home as an investment. Its only a matter of time before it all comes crashing back to earth. When I meation housing bubble to them, I get the look: "what planet are you from?". When I bring up the stock bubble, the reply always is "Its different this time". Yeah Right.

>I guess a lot of people like me are moving to the country.

I would suspect much of this is "investment" property, that people are buying to build a second (vacation) home or to rent it out in hope to make some money.

Note: This week Bankruptcy reform was just passed in the House. Just in time for the Real Estate Bubble to go bust.
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Edward Miller »

interesting article ain the la times about the real estate bubble.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-e ... &cset=true

if it requres a login you can use www.bugmenot.com
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Richard Hull
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Richard Hull »

It is all smoke and mirrors...............

There are, actually, many bubbles about to burst.

It is all about "grabin' yours" and screw all the rest of 'em. There are many other such "grab and runs" active in the economy whereby slick schiester's fleece the flock. A huge percentage of these are extremely well constructed around stock holdings that are not held, bonds that are not there and I fear that the 401K programs are as solid as the faith people put in them.

It will all have to shakeout with any serious adjustments towards reality in financial dealings. I predict that the S&L and Enron scandals will pale against the coming 401K meltdowns. Rest assured that no one will pay for this debacle who has not already paid into their 401Ks. I have a 401k.

There is just too much apparent wealth flowing about with multi-trillion dollar debt and matching deficits.

Here....Have another platinum VISA card..... No interest for 12 months!

Buy this living room suite... no payments until 2007!

New Chevy Suburbans on sale below dealer cost... zero down and low interest rates with 6 years to pay.

Where is the real money?... The cash? Who pays the workers that built that Chevy while the purchaser takes years to pay? Is there no backlog in the money source?

The answer is that GM can use their accounts receivables (the multi-year debt on that Suburban) as a true and real asset in obtaining loans to pay their workers today.

Ever seen a cat chase its tale?

There is countless trillions locked up in accounts receivables and unpaid debt all of which is far out in front of, and an overburden on, an out of control buying spree.

Rest assured the buying glut can and will stop on a dime and all that tailgating overburden will result in a multi-institutional rear-ender that will leave all asking "where's th' beef"? The answer is that there never was enough beef to go around just the unending promise of beef to come.

If cash money is just a certificate of deferred wealth that the bearer has chosen to delay receiving but is honored by all institutions and merchants, then how much weaker is accounts receivables that rely on countless millions of individuals to pay back over ever extened periods and not declare backruptcy.

Sure, such economic slights of hand expand the economy and allow high standards of living. The economy expanded in the late fifities, ballooned in the 80's and this balloon is ready to burst in the new millenium. We are already seeing this heralded by tiny little multi-billion dollar shell games collapse.....no matter....the good ship lolli-pop just sails on.

The little guy, who usually financed, all of these multi-billion dollar boon doggles raises hell for a bit, but is soothed back to sleep with 4 more credit cards he can max out and other perks where actual money is not needed to enrich himself. So everybody seems to be "gettin' theirs".

There is just too much fake wealth all assembled and accumulated in ledger books. All of it is based solely on accounts receivables and massive debt being considered as good as gold by those holding the debt and by lending institutions willing to lend them more based on same.

Right now we are kept groggy and off our guard in a manner similar to what follows..........

It is late at night....almost too late......we find ourselves quite comfortable, but standing in the middle of railroad tracks with several folks we know and trust, some of whom are old friends, standing just off the tracks but with us as a group. We see a light in the distance piercing the night somewhat in alignment with the tracks. We note to the others that we ought to move off as we think a train is coming. Immediately one of our trusted advisers says that we must be mistaken and continues to engage us in conversation.

As the light gets brighter, we become more concerned and interrupt our friends banter with yet another warning, but one of the more reasonable of our friends notes that the blanket statement that a train is approaching is a bit premature and rather assumptive on our part.

The light is really bright now and the alignment with the rails is near perfect. Remember, only you and I are in the tracks.

Again, we protest with more vigor. Now all of our trusted friends jump in and ask us to consider other possibilities and not continuously whine about a train when any number of other alternatives are to be suggested. Some even offer alternate possible scenarios that are far less ominous and appear to be be well crafted explanations.

By now, we are almost like deer caught in headlights.....frozen, but still listening to advice given by people we have grown to trust.

When do we leap off the tracks? Are we so used to advice and comforting assurances that we will allow the train to hit us? We seem to know one thing for sure... If it is a train, we will take the hit and our friends, who are not on the tracks, will be spared....Will we move? Probably not. Many of our kind have been hit before by allowing the siren's song to immobilize us. Others in our herd watch passively.

As we are hit, others from the herd note that our old friends all move off quietly until another night when they return and take others of the herd to the tracks for conversations.

Too bad. The herd always figures there is safety in numbers and each member figures, "what is the probability my number is up"?

In the end, it is energy that will be the measure of wealth as folks scramble to stay warm and run all their cool stuff they bought just before "The great collapse of 'aught' nine". I just don't see fusion anywhere in this picture.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
3l
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by 3l »

Hi Mike:

All the choice east coast real estate is being bought up with depreciated dollars.by foreiners...west coast too. That drives
American folks into the hinterlands. In turn that drives up the cost of marginal land.

Hi Richard:

Your last post pretty sums up why I've been absent lately from the fusornet. I am restructuring my liife to deal with the coming freight train. I now possess enough solar panels and wind mills
to support my new life style. For sale is my energy eating house
with it's ton of taxes. I will draw No city services...at all. My new house is all metal with 4 feet of blown insulation on ten acres.
I want to live my dream of the prosumer in real time. I had to really shift my thinking to make the leap.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
Fusor Tech
ebeuerle
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by ebeuerle »

Larry,
I am trying to pursue this route with a move down to North Carolina. If possible I would love to know your plans/results in detail as I am not exactly sure where to start-but I do know I want off the grid in the near term along with producing as much food on my own as I can.
-Eddie B.

ps
You can send private email to ebeuerle@excite.com if you dont want to post here:)
3l
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by 3l »

Hi Edward:

I don't mind posting here one bit.
The question to ask yourself is what cost is escallating fastest.
It is energy obviously.
I have taken two approaches to this problem.
One gather wind and solar panels to generate electricity.
But the really tricky part is how much to buy?
When I first started 6 kw was the first figure ,I computed back 5 years ago.
Back then I was tying to make my 1965 style house work.
It turned out I would need around $20k+ worth of gear to support it.
It was impractical...no matter how hard you crunched the numbers the wooden stich house of the late 19th and early twentieth century was never gonna work.
So I abandoned this approach and started with a fresh sheet of paper.
The main 110v powerhog was heating food,heating and cooling the house and illumination. Looking at my 20K+ budget...if I didn't use 110 volt stuff everywhere I could get by with less that $2k of inverters. 12 volt is much safer to use and won't burn your house down . An added plus is that a very expensive electrician fee is eliminated. Heating and cooling can be eliminated entirely by proper design. A wall with four feet of blown insulation would approximate the insulative quallities of an underground house without all the expense and headache of dirt structures. A proper selection of the blown insulation will make it a much safer house by far than even the best wooden house.
Borated cellulose would repell bugs and vermin. Rats plus wooden houses with 110volt wiring equals burned down house.
Seperated runs of 12v reduce the hazard by a factor of ten easily.
Using this hyper insulated design reduces the average energy usage down below a kilowatt per day per person.
So in my area 20K+ al little more will site my house ,buy the land,pour the concrete slab, Erect the structure, and sheave it in metal siding.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
Fusor Tech
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Adam Szendrey
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Location: Budapest, Hungary

Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Adam Szendrey »

Hi Larry,

The idea of having my own little land with my own little house, along with my own little powerplant(s), is rather tempting, even if there would be no power shortage or high energy prices on the horizon. Being independent is always great. There are some beautiful pieces for land for sale here, which are realtively cheap, as they don't have any utilities. Though even that "relatively cheap" ($ 5-10k) is a LOT or me at the moment. But i will eventually get the required amount of cash together. Right now i cannot truly decide if i should hurry up or not.

Adam
ebeuerle
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by ebeuerle »

Excellent info Larry. If you start construction-it would be great if you would post pictures as you slowly build it:) I am close to moving down to NC from Northern VA(too crazy around here to buy anything of value). I hope to buy some isolated land that is cheap and do close to what you are planning on doing. Would be nice to follow you along:)
-Eddie B.
Q
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Q »

edward,
what part of nc are you moving to? i am in the western end (mountains) and i think brian williard is almost at the opposite end of the state.

i am working towards my energy independance as well. currently i am about to put up a few small wind generators and start construction on some fusion (solar) collectors. in the near future i hope to have the house disconnected and only have the electric utility connected to the lab.

hope the move goes well,
Q
ebeuerle
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by ebeuerle »

Q,
My job would be in Charlotte, NC so somewhere near there I suspect. I have heard that living in SC I might be able to afford some decent amount of land. I am probably going to be flying down there in a couple of weeks to do some land/house shopping.
Thanks for the kind words!
-Eddie B.
Q
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Q »

ok, so that'll put you close to the middle of the state. charlotte is a good area to be around, there is much going on there. though, it is the largest city in the state. but yeah, just across the state line in sc, you should be able to find a good bit of land at a decent price. if i remember correctly, it's mostly farmland.

Q
3l
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by 3l »

Hi Guys:

I recently dusted off my 10 kv pulse rig.
Replaced the bell jar with a conflat ss tube in the z pinch mode.
Pulled a 1 torr vacuum
Backfilled the tube with deuterium gas to 100 torr.
I can get 10^5 neutrons fairly easily with a tiny cap.
500 shots on a single fill.
The rig ps is a 10 kv @ 1ma transformer and rectifier set by Plastic Capacitors company.
A small thyratron does the switching work instead of a spark gap.
The Kemmore 1 still makes a dandy mounting enclosure.
The storage cap has a capacity of 100J (2 uf @ 10kv)
The ps draws 10 Watts of ac...so I put a cheap 19 buck inverter on it. Since the supply puts out only 10 watts ...you can charge the cap in 10 seconds. Or 6 times a minute. So the next step was to put a solar panel on the inverter. I ran the rig all day on just sunlight. For night runs you need a storage battery. A cheepo 20-30 watt panel would be all you would need to crank out neuts in Bora Bora.
Do I need power in my shop?
I don't think so..
It is not perfected by any means BUT this is as close to portabilty as I had imagined it years ago.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
Fusor Tech
ebeuerle
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by ebeuerle »

Very nicely done!!! See you can do high voltage work using "free" power:) Woohoo and stuff!
Congrats Larry!
-Eddie B.
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