The canary just died

[AnGuy]

>Originally they had 20 years tops but the new data makes that estimate highly optimistic. They simply don't know.
Its just in the 5 year zone + or minus 3 years!

Well considering how important oil is, I am sure some one at the DOE has a pretty good idea. I can't imagine that the DOE, NSA, etc, doesn't compile detail reports about oil production. I figured with all the news leaks lately, that perhaps some these details have leaked through out the DOE by now.

[AnGuy]

>Ultimately, all mass and personal transport will be electric to the drive train. Trolley's, interurbans, return of continental rail service in a big way, (circa 1930's-40's) and modern alternate fuels to electric. The world will be 100% electrical.

Well, transportation is just a small piece of the pie. Back in 1970, the last report on crop production energy consumption estimated that for every calorie of food produced in the US, 10 calories of oil is consumed. Oil has permited the use to less farming land and still increase production. Much of the US's best farm land has been converted to strip Malls and residental communities. When the oil is gone, we'll need that land back.

Oil also used to heat our homes. Cheap and plentiful oil created the urbanal sprawl and its end will be the demise of the spawl. I would suspect that the majority of the population will be forced to migrate to cities. It will be too expensive to distribute food to the masses as they live as the do now. Construction of large apartment complexes in the cities could be heated using central steam plants fired by coal. This will be vastly more efficient (and less polluting) than individual furnaces. It may be possible to meet our transportant needs with electricity, but it cannot fulfill both transportation and heating needs.

The big question is war. Its highly likely that countries will fight over the remaining oil. oil = food, and when people get hungry they'll get grumpy. I wouldn't dare to speculate how bad it could become.

Finally I don't believe hydrogen be the replacement for oil. Its too volatile and dangerous for transportation. Second there aren't sufficient precious metals to permit large scale production of fuel cells.

[3l]

Hi Ag:

Over the past 10 years the DOE has become highly politicized after Bill Richards stepped down as chairman.
The agency is no longer an independent agency like it was in the 60's and 70's.
In the old days the number of engineers and scientists to adminstrators was 80 to 20 . Now it is 30 to 70 ratio.
Most research is now farmed out to Colleges and Universities, making the politic more important than the research bit..

They have official estimates but if you pidgeon hole them and get them drunk ...then ask them...they will giggle and tell you
it's all just eyewash. Out of the original group I mentioned only 2 or 3 are still there. The rest are political yes men who will try to smooth over this coming S*it Storm. Too many jobs are hanging in the balance to tell the Empeor he has no clothes. Besides it was an election year, high balling the figures was the order of the day. The old timers are too close to retirement to make waves so the new guys painted a happy face on the oil estimates.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
Fusor Tech

[MattFletcher]

If you want to know about the world’s energy reserves go to the CIA world fact book. They keep stats on all current reserves on oil, coal, & uranium + estimates are fairly accurate. The U.S. alone has over a 273 coal reserve & several thousand years worth of uranium reserves.

As for autos isn't a conversion process going on for hybrids that run on methanol & can't methanol be made from almost any fossil fuel or carbon based chemicals including fossil rock which there are thousands of years of reserves there.

I also believe solar wind & wave energy sources are nowhere near there potential.

And last but not least my money is on Fusion reactors breaking the breakeven point within the next 30 years, as I hope the rest of you feel, which should then resolve most of the problems.

And if this doesn't do it, I live in the U.S. the only superpower left and we just went through an Acquisition processes in the Gulf to secure our oil reserves for the next 20 to 30 years.

As for the rest of you who live in other countries, well good luck with that. I'm sure you will figure out how to pull it out of your asspiring minds someday.

[Richard Hull]

Yes, the beat goes on.

I hold zero propects for fusion in the next 50 years. We need energy like in the next 5 years. Gasoline and natural gas will go the way of the dodo bird real soon now and the old automobiles will be a dim memory. I expect $5.00/gallon gas real soon now.

As I have said before, the only energy that will be had will be electrical energy via some process into the future. This could open up hydrogen for vehicles. (who knows?). I predict this electrical only future may happen in 10-15 years. The fact that hydrogen costs more to make in electricity will just not be a factor for those who have to be on the move.

What oil remains will be sequestered for palstics and the chemical industry as a national priority asset. Coal and fission will be the masters, with solar and wind contributing in minor , but effective ways. Hydros that can't now be built because of flooding or snail darter endangerment will be constructed and people relocated by congressional decree. Nothing on earth beats hydro. If you need to destroy vast tracts of land and valuable property it is to be done. Dumb animals have no place in this scheme of things when it comes to keeping someone's TV on at night.

Some of us will live to see this last great stab at holding on to the dreams were are now living. Ultimately, we will have to suck it up.

The third world nations are getting rich very quickly and want their piece of the pie and, if on the world market, they are happy to pay, in a bidding war, $100.00/barrel of oil in fair market competition, then, Hey, we've got $10.00 per gallon gasoline being rationed at the rate of 10 gallons per week per licensed driver with a registered vehicle. It is not a matter of how expensive gas gets, it will be a matter of you won't be able to even buy it at that price due to supply curtailment. We'll see rationing long before gas becomes unbelievably outrageous in price. (probably in the $8- $12/gallon range)

Are you all prep'd for this? Rest assured it is just around the bend and will fold over at a geometric rate and we will all be wondering what happened.

Richard Hull

[Adam Szendrey]

I kinda fear that it's the same with the climate change. It seems to be accelerating at an exponential rate, kicking up every possible prediction by mainstream weather science....And now we go..."uh,oh...umm...well..maybe we should do something? "
Yea, like reducing greenhouse gas emissions to the HALF of what it was BEFORE 1990...And they are serious about it, no kidding! Man i would love to see the impossible happen...
Too late people...Seriously...when will PREVENTION become more than a word in the dictionary?
I don't want to blame anyone who is american here, really, but a single person in the US releases an average of 25 tonns of greenhouse gases yearly. In Europe that's 12 tonns per person per year. In India it's 1 t/p/y.
And what does Bush has to say about it? (i know, who cares) He doesn't want america to be manipulated.....i ask those who live in the US here...can a sane person say anything like that regarding such a topic? Also how is it possible that american people let this **** speak for them? I mean yes, here in Hungary we currently have a similarly **** leadership, and we also let them ruin this country...so actually the question is...why do we (all over the globe) let morons take the wheel? ...really...why?

Okay, so that was my flaming for the day, let the tomatoes fly .

Adam

[Frank Sanns]

Politics=Popularity=Don't make waves=Don't do things that are very different=Make people feel safe=Only say what is is essential to say=Let people feel good even if they quit school, don't want to work, guzzle energy and resources, and have no idea about the big picture=Money=Good ole boys=Influence with lemmings that stick together to feel whole=Politicians and the people they govern=people that think they are patriots but have no idea how lame they really are.

and a few more but those are my vegetables for the day.

Frank S.

[Brian McDermott]

Quite frankly, not many people actualy think about the implications when they step into a car. I know I don't. When I drive, I think about paying attention to the road or how to get to where I'm going. The thought of gas only crosses my mind when I glance down at the fuel gauge. That said, I do make an effort to drive in such a way that fuel consumption is minimized.

We can sit here and talk about how bad cars and oil are, but I'm willing to bet that one's personal impact on global warming is not the first thought in mind while behind the wheel.

[Richard Hull]

Brian and especially Frank hit on the core ideas.

NO president or leader dare let the situation in their country, no matter what that situation is, deteriorate or change in a perceived negative manner by so much as a Jot. Not only is it political suicide, it is just not to be considered. Every action that is made in a bold and forceful manner is to be dedicated to, if not maintaining the status quo, then actually improving conditions.... RIGHT NOW......... within the election cycle, and not for future generations. RIGHT NOW is what matters not only to the politicians but the bulk of all people on the planet. Whether it is getting food for his next meal, by the starving guy in sub-Saharan Africa or buying that new $500,000 home for the upwardly mobile american dweeb. Both are intent on the physical, immediate moment, regardless of what their higher brain function might say. These are the bulk of this world and not the well meaning, cerberal, forward thinkers.

We live in an age of technological wonder THAT MUST NOT CEASE!!! It must not cease enriching us. It must not cease saving us time. It must not cease providing constant entertainment and diversion. It must not cease to provide future opportunity for advancement. It must not have significant burps of inconvenience. It must continually provide for an ever brighter future. All of the current goodies we have and enjoy must not be interfered with. Any deviation from a smooth path that inconveniences the populace, in any way, is to be avoided at all costs.

Politicians, government ideaologies, or public policies that interfere in any way with any portion of the above does so at their peril and at risk of their continued survival.

The idea that mankind as a whole is smart enough to look at future issues with a seriousness that requires actions which will produce immediate hardship or interruption of the status quo is a grand illusion.

Mankind only works for a common good with a force of untold brilliance and will power when it is thrown into the lurch and not one second before, even if millions are seen to perish through past or current inaction.

Man is adaptable and can have things change for the worse and move on, often, still overlooking the long haul game plan and ignoring visible future disaster.

Gas prices in the US is a great example. We grumbled about gas increases over the last two years. Yet, we got used to it and are now just going about our busy way pumping gas today that is twice as expensive as two years ago. Our only concern is not if we can even get gas twenty years down the road, but just how high it will get by this Christmas. A few of us are looking at maybe getting a fuel efficient vehicle for work instead of driving the 3 ton suburban every day. A few more might be thinking about getting work closer to home and avoiding the 50 minute commute to work each morning where most of the gas is being burned at stop lights or waiting in traffic jams.

But few are considering major changes beyond this immediate options. The long view is not considered.

The long view on fusion, isn't even a blip on the radar. The dream is only slightly advanced from the 1950s. The most knowledgable and honest fusioneers now realize 50 years might be needed to see fusion power plants. Much as their forebearers did. Long before fusion pushes the first watt out to be metered in homes, fission and coal will be king again.

Richard Hull

[ebeuerle]

Since I know all of you are very smart people I want to throw this question out(and yes its sort of been answered in the past): How can we(members of this board) prepare for the eventual controlled metering of gasoline, increased prices on energy, increased prices on food and just about everything else we use on a daily basis? I currently live in a townhouse about 30min away from where I work in Northern Virginia. I am not allowed to put up solar panels on my roof(stupid HOA) so I figure when this all comes to a head I will probably have to move in order to deal with the price increases/lack of fuel. I would love to hear actual examples and potential projects that will make my transition easier than the uninformed. I feel that the engineering background most of us have will prove to be quite useful when the time comes but it would be nice to start discussing what we can actually do about it. If we need to start with some assumptions then lets lay those out too.
Anyone?
-Eddie B.

[Richard Hull]

You are correct regarding these issues having been addressed here in the past.

Without being too draconian, one would ideally like to own, free and clear, no possiblity of eviction....... the smallest dwelling sufficiant to living in a modest fashion. Ideally outside of the city, with at least a large backyard, but not too remote either, unless you are prepared to grow, make and produce all you need in an isolated environment.

A small solar array for power (mostly illumination and communication) of 50 watts would be a minimum with lead acid battery storage. A water solar panel of sorts with radiator heat and a spigot for hot water draining in at least one room, is also good.

Canned goods layed up in such a manner that the stock rotates in normal use. i.e., 20 cans of corn or peas such that you always buy corn and peas that assures 20 cans are kept on hand. You cook normally with the oldest can in the pile. Other canned goods are similarly utilized in rotation.

Water, at least 50 gallons, are in storage and on hand in plastic drums and are drained and refilled every few weeks, also in rotation. A supply of candles, coleman type gas lantern, camping coleman type small cook stove or charcoal and grill.

A complete set of HAND tools for construction and gardening. NONE of these should require batteries or power.

A weapon or two including steel ball shooting, hunting, slingshot, bow with arrows, firearms one long gun (rifle), one shotgun and one hand gun and suitable ammo. You may have to hunt and or defend your stuff and your life.

Decent medical supplies, At least a first aid kit. Get and store in the fridge neosporin (only topical antibiotic with out perscription.)
Alcohol (ethenol), hydrogen peroxide, a good selection of bandages and dressings. Suture kit if you are feeling like sewing up wounds. Normally use and rotate these supplies as well.... mainly, just be prepared

I would also have a minimum of 5 or more 20lb propane cylinders filled and ready with a single little "sunflower" style heater to attach to same. An alternate is to get one big cylinder or tank of propane on your property. The great thing is that a lot of coleman camping stuff now also uses propane.

TV and radio that can use batteries or 12 volt car battery power. Go for low power consumption (small B&W tv, small portable all band SW radio.,etc)

Most of this stuff is usable daily for good home purposes anyway, but should be on hand. Other of these materials will help duing storm blackouts, local emergencies, etc.

The key is try and use and rotate all your supplies. Make sure most of your stuff will keep over time fairly well. I would develop a minimal gardening skill along with tool and construction skills.

A good set of reference books on medicine gardening and home construction projects is a must in addition to enetertaining books.

The rest can just be stored out of sight and out of the way.

It is going to be the skilled, handy person with resources in hand that sufffers the least if things go bad fast.

The above stuff is minimalistic! Others would prepare for a continuing lifestyle free of society and the "grid" and this would mean much more expense, land and talents. Others will just cover themselves with half of the stuff above and thus rely on a rather quick return to normal utilities and services.

Richard Hull

[Adam Szendrey]

Regarding electronic stuff, i would vote for an LCD TV, instead of CRT, one of the portable small ones. LCDs consume much less power than CRTs. Plus (and i think that's a major advantage), the consume MUCH less space. They don't have a HV flyback which can cause fire or stuff like that (though i dobut that too much CRTs catch fire these days). Also since LCDs don't have any vacuum stuff (okay, the cold cathode tubes which act as the backlight, are vacuum tubes, but those can be replaced with strong white LEDs i think). What i mean is , that vacuum engineering is not a simple task...electronic stuff is a better thing. One can stock up a LOT of electornic components, also they are easy to come by (discarded electronic stuff).

Neon tubes are good for lighting as the consume little power, but have a limited lifetime. LEDs on the other hand have an extremely long lifetime (though i bought a couple of really cheap white leds and some of them started flickering, like strobes...i have no idea why or how).

I suppose that the good heat insulation of the dwelling is also important. Btw, one can generate heat via composting. Grass is a good fuel! I bet you can heat water to 50-70 degrees celsius with a spool of wire placed inside the compost (by circulating water through).
Heat pumps are also great. By drilling a couple of 15-20 meter deep holes, you can get all the heat you need. These systems give you 4 or 5 times the energy (heat) that is required for them to work (electric). Another option is to dig a long and/or wide trench, about 2 meters deep, and laying down the pipes there. That solution is less efficient but also works great.

Adam

[ebeuerle]

Richard and Adam,
Thanks for your great always thought out replies. I am starting to collect those supplied mentioned above. Thanks for a great headstart.
-Eddie B.

[3l]

Hi Edward:

A water purifying kit is another must have item.
I have run without power for a year now and have gotten by very easily on a solar bank and windmill. A thermoelectric fridge now keeps a small variety of refrigerable goods in my daily diet.
I have reduced my bills down to 15 dollars a month for water,10-20 dollars for gasoline with 25 dollars for canned goods.
Currently I'm cutting down trees and cutting them into firewood.
Propane is out of the question for heatng this fall.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
Fusor Tech

[Adam Szendrey]

Hey Larry, it's really good to see you back! Though this will be a bit off topic, sorry 'bout that, but how are ya?
Crude is up to 60 a barrel i hear. Nice..But in the eighties (accordin to what i read) it went over 80. Though i think this is a lil' bit different . It went down a little, standing around 56-57 right now. Meanwhile an unprecedented series of extreme weather conditions take place all over the globe. I guess we really ***** up this place...or i'm just a little bit too pessimistic.

Adam

[ebeuerle]

Adam,
Along those lines I just read an interesting article on newscientist.com that talked about the unique situation we are in regarding aerosols in the atmosphere. Apparently the computer weather simluations couldn't explain why the earth isn't heating up faster than it is. According to the article aerosols are keeping the atmosphere cooler but as we begin restricting pollutants the aerosol levels will decrease and cause a major speedup in warming. I guess its kinda of like putting a temporary dam in front of a river and leave it there for a while before cutting holes in the dam till the dam breaks and the water floods through.
Sounds like we are in for some exciting/scary times ahead. Although I doubt we will all live to see the extreme weather changes but we will certain be around for the BIG OIL CRUNCH.
-Eddie B.

[Adam Szendrey]

Yup i read that article, and i find it interesting. Small particulate matter, such as ash, and dust help cloud formation according to the study and that's how they keep the global temperature rise lower. If less clouds form, more solar flux reaches the surface, thus temperature rises faster.

Adam

[DaveC]

Much as I enjoy the excitement of speculation about the future, there is a large portion of what we are doing here that is just imaginary. The energy "crisis" exists only in the minds of the un-informed journalist crowd, who get paid for stirring up vivid images of something or other.

We have in this country, at least about 1000 yrs of fuel for all our electricity, and quite probably our transportation even at today's profligate and inefficient usage levels. We have both the technology and the mfr means to make enough nukes whether simple fission plants or breeders once the gummint types remove their cranial parts from elsewhere in their anatomy.

It is all virtually self correcting,,, the energy issues,.... really.

Today, you can buy a hybrid vehicle from several mfrs, at least one of which is domestic and the two imports (Toyota and Honda) are actually quite good cars. We actually do NOT have to drive SUV monsters, except that for now, it does not cost too much for the fuel. Widespread use of hybrids would/will lower out automobile fuel usage by 50% almost immediately. Endo of local crisis.

I tend to agree that fuel will go up in price. Here in So. California, the rising cost of gasoline has already begun to lighten the traffic a little. And every time the price goes up another dime/gal, a few more joy riders stay home. So fuel alone could solve the grid lock issue in some places.

But like gasoline, electricity is undervalued. Years ago I was involved in looking at future cost factors and the effects of major technological breakthroughs - like room temperature superconductivity - and what these types of advances would do to the energy markets the power company considered their own.

Well what emerged was that electricity then...over 10 years ago, was undervalued by more than a factor of two. The marginal cost of electric energy was in the neighborhood of some 30 plus cents per kwhr, but I worked for a "genius" who loved to spout that electricity costs would go below 10 cents/kwhr when the markets were de-regulated.

Even allowing for all the warpage caused by the brain-dead implentation of a new form of regulation in the guise of "deregulation", that imaginary cost reduction never happened and simply won't.

At some point in time, the economic "vars" the technologically advanced nations have been using to fuel their economies, will beome too costly to continue using and the economic "power factor" will have to be brought closer to unity, for a sustainable approach to life. We are fast approaching that day.

Future efforts will consider the complete life-cycle costs of everything, which will alter many of the givens that we in America take for granted. It will take some very serious thinking and invention and vision to move away from the reactionary approach of "Stop using everything. because there is only so much of it left...".

We have people out here talking about not "wasting" water. Now so far as I know, the weather cycles continue as they have been .. and in the words of the Preacher in Ecclesiastes..." All the rivers run into the sea, yet the sea is not full. Where the waters came from, there they return again..." So by you and me using the water to make a lawn green or to wash a car...the water still makes it to the sea, if not today, then tommorrow...or next week, and eventually returns to its source.

The important heavy lifiting here, (pun intended) is not being done by any gummint agency, but the the Almighty's agency.. and has been for a long time. But it sure sounds politically correct to intone solemnly about "water conservation"... even if it makes no sense whatever.

It will take some serious thinkers to sort thtough this kind of balderdash.

The same goes for the global warming issues. Do the math at 1Kw per sq meter on the upper atmosphere of the projected area of the earth at some 13,300 km in diameter... If my calcs are correct, that's about 226,000 Terawatts, continuously. The US electrical production is a few TW peak and we are the heavy hitters in the world. Multiply by whatever scale up you like, and it is hard to get world usage, present or projected up to more than a tiny fraction of the daily input from the Sun.

Add to this the uncalculated amount of stored heat coming from inside the earth...that brings the surface temperature to something like 15 C all by itself, and I think you can see that what the global warming crowd is spouting about local variations and possible cycles, seems to more or less ignore the bigger picture.

But it does make headlines and headlines attract attention and gummint funds worldwide... so the universities pander to it... it pays for grad students and theses... and keeps bright people employed. So it isn't all bad.... just not a crisis...

Well I had my rant for the day... its dinner time and I hope no one was either offended or bored.

Great discussions here and lots of good ideas, sown by all. Keep it going... this is how real progress occurs.

Dave Cooper

[Adam Szendrey]

Hi Dave,

About nuclear, and electricity, hybrids, etc...
We had a couple of discussions over the past time about nuclear (namely fission) being the way to go, as of now, there is no better solution, fission is cheap, produces plenty of power, and has practically zero emission.

Nuclear plants could be coupled with hydrogen factories (just like in many cases aluminium furnaces are built right next to power plants, because of the immense power requirement), and the gas could be distributed to filling stations all over the given country via pipes. Also, i think it would be a nice replacement for natural gas , if plenty is manufactured.

Hydrogen fueled cars (either with a fuel cell, or simply burning hydrogen) could take over, in no time.
But...all of that is really nice, and i would be much more optimistic, if i would see the positive change...but i don't! So how much more time should pass before it starts happening? I'm getting a bit impatient. Isn't it about time to start doing instead of talking?
Right now, though fuel cells exist for a long time, hybrid cars cost a fortune, and there is ZERO infrastructure for large scale hydrogen production/distribution. In America they might be affordable but not here. Also , while the US can afford such a major shift, most countries in the world simply cannot. Or should i say, do not want to...Changeing the ATTITUDE is the hardest part i think.

About global warming/climate change....
Well, i'm just talking about what is actually happening now....there ARE more and more weather extremes. This is not some media crap, it's a fact. Here in hungary several villages were flooded, extreme hails..In Romania, there has been a major, catastrophic flood. While in Spain there is so little precipitation, that the whole country is drying up, large fires errupted. Or snow covered palm trees... Those are not made up by journalists.

Such events would not be unusual by them selves. They have happened before. What gives me pause is that they all happen at once, and they happen a bit too often.

I see that you are rather optimistic (well, compared to what i think), i really hope you will be right, believe me.

Adam

[DaveC]

Adam - I think that the Hybrid vehicle is here, now. I am seriously pondering whether to buy one. A colleague at work has had one (Toyota Prius) for more thant a yr now... averaging 45 mpg, which is about 25% better mileage overall than the Toyota Corolla which is the same size. Few of the SUV's get much above 20 mpg. But that's probably mostly a North American situation. That's why I think that full scale production of the hybrid would result in large fuel saving right now

It would also be true with the fuel cell, IF one were actually commercially available. To my knowledge they are still experimental. Further, the only really efficient ones are the high pressure H2:O2 cells, which are very expensive, still, because of the noble metal catalysts. And a Hydrogen supply infrastructure is going to be an interesting development problem.

A real fuel shortage would catapult these devices to practicality by eliminating the interest in anything else short term. Right now, we still have apparent choices, so there is no perceived urgency. Not the right view, but the way it actually is.

I am sure we are seeing some unusual weather. We just had the absolute wettest year on record... by about 0.14 inches... But what gets lost in the hype is the statistical aspect of the phrase "normal" this or that. Normal implies a distribution, although with real data it usually is NOT a Gaussian distribution. this means that the far extremes are not abnormal, but just as normal as the "normal" weather, temperature or whatever.

Sorry for the play on words there, but it was done to make the point. 20 to 40 degrees below or above the average temperature for a date could well be normal without even considering the prospects of longterm climatic shifts.

The news business, has few science people in it, and little scientific common sense. We should not expect too much from them. They report what they see and hear. What it means or portends is something altogether different. But often the speculations of these non-science people is just.. nonsense. But we all love a catastrophe... to read about,,, not be in. So their speculations and trending are captivating, and fascinating... but rather misleading to follow.

Right now we have people worrying over minute amounts of this or that in the atmosphere, and its possible contribution to global warming/or cooling. Yet we have reported to us in the same news media, the occurence of boiling seas off the South Pacific from underseas volcanism. Now we wouldn't expect that to have any effect whatsoever on ocean temperatures, moisture, evaporation, El Nino.. etc.. would we? Nahhh...

This is what I mean... Local news business reports the vogue news... whatever is being repeated here and there. It IS information, but one has to take it in and carefully separate wheat from chaff.

Yes I am optimistic...for a variety of reasons, but I do expect big changes to be coming.

Dave Cooper

[TBenson]

What a fantastic thread.

I too agree that we already have the solution. Pebble-bed and 4th generation fission reactors could be mass-produced any time people decide to do it (lots of engineering to be done, for sure, but the science is 50 years old). They will have vastly improved fuel usage, waste output, and safety.

For example, the folks at Thoriumpower.com have already figured out and tested a simple trick for using 50% thorium fuel in any number of typical reactor configurations. That doubles our potential fuel time right there. Many of the Gen-4 reactors are significantly more effiecient in uranium usage, and produce significantly less waste, as much as 10X.

I'm sure many of you already have read that article in Wired magazine where they talk about China aiming toward the pebble bed reactor as the magic bullet to power their enormous society as it modernizes. Given that the only alternative is gigatonnes of filthy coal, sure hope that is true.

Has the canary died? I think so. Do we have solutions? Yes. Let's see if the twain shall meet.

[Richard Hull]

I have always relied on the fact that man, especially in the spirit of Americans, love a good crisis and respond rapidly to it with a "roled up sleeves" attitude..... inspite of having helped cause the crisis through action or inaction. Some whinning and finger pointing, to be sure, but ultimately, the issue is tackled. I have noted this here before.

I have also noted that electricity is the only energy to be considered "future viable" and all other issues from the environment to transprotation will be subordinate to it. With electricity in hand and continuously flowing, much that we have today will not change significantly.

Fission and Coal are tomorrow! In what order and to what extent one leads or lags the other is truly not important, for only those two will survive time's test over the next century.

How bad it gets is going to be more a function of public and government ignorance and indolence coupled with businesses seeking to control the flow and meter of it all.

We are all on board the same bus bound for the future.

Richard Hull

[john_h]

There is curious little revolution underway in model airplanes. Within the last 2-3 years, lithium polymer batteries have transformed the hobby. Internal combustion is over. It is now possible to fly an electric powered model with an 18-inch wingspan with a “full house” radio control system. (Rudder, throttle, elevator, ailerons). Peanut scale models, with a 13-inch span, are being flown with 3 channel radios. And a new species of 7-15 gram weight radio controlled airplanes, called “living room flyers” has begun to emerge.

All this progress is not a development at the margins. Slow, small, silent electric aircraft are basically taking over the hobby and the business that underlies it. The transition to electric flight with LiPo batteries is a Big Thing. NiCad and NiMH batteries are spoken of in the past tense. In a few years, the still-around multi-foot span aircraft models with snarling, spitting, and much beloved 2-cycle internal combustion engines (nastiest noise of the 20th century) will be gone, retired.

I don’t know if this story “scales”, to the level of the real world, but if it does, perhaps it carries some lessons. The interesting thing about lithium polymer batteries is their extremely light weight. Nickel metal hydride batterers offered good power density but when LiPo came along, some sort of threshold of skepticism was crossed, and suddenly, right now, there seems to be no other way to fly than electric power from LiPo batteries.

If the technology would “scale,” that is, if you could make a motorcycle with lithium polymer cells, it would outrun a Ducati. Silently. The lesson seems to be that it isn’t enough to come up with something that is merely more logical than the combustion of hydrocarbons. You have to come up with something that is more of a kick.