The last days of oil

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3l
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The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Folks:

I used to work for a DOE based company.
Back in 1976 ,the company held a 4 day seminar with Texico's Aramco Division. Back then the best estimates of the Fields in Saudia Arabia were not that good. At that time the Ghwar Fields
were estimated to have 61 billion barrels of oil that could be recovered. The crisis was that was 60 % of the TOTAL production of world oil. Well 30 years later a new look at the same figures has occurred via the Hudson Institute. Fire alarms have gone off all over Washington. It appears that the Saudis
have already pumped away 55 billion barrels since the Gwar field opened in 1950. They are in the fourth generation of oil production and recovery. The oil fields no longer have any pressure to move the oil to the well head. They pump 70 million gallons of seawater daily to move the oil to wells. That 5 billion figure breaks down to 5000 days with a consumption of 15 million barrels per day. But that figure is too low because it does not include the onstreaming of China and India. With those factors taken into account 1200 days tops or roughly four years.
the rest of the world will only be able to maintain that 30 % production for just a few years then it's lights out in 7-8 years.
When the saltwater hits the well head it's all over.
It will occur swiftly and with no warning.
We barely have time to build 100 new nuke plants if the Oil President isn't in therapy.
Why must it always be this Way?

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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

HOLY!
I estimated about 15-20 years....
I heard that there are vast fields in Alaska, and somewhere else in the world. But they cannot be extracted. What about russian reserves?
Are you sure that info is correct (sorry, i just want to be absolutely sure)?
Somebody told me that the US government is just spreading such info to pump the oil prices up (while there is enough oil for more than 50 years), but i don't think that is the case....then why did they keep it so low for so long there?

Adam
3l
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Adam:

The fun part of this storm is the Bush Adminstration knew the facts a coupla years ago. That is the BIG secret of the energy report that the Chainey's buddies have supressed so thoroughly in our country. The Saudi's have been locking production figures into a safe for many years now.. Finally someone someone started analysing
the past data that the Society of Petroleum Engineers had been reporting for years. If people had the data why did it take so long?
No one could take a comprehensive look at the data until all of the printed reports were scanned into a data base so it could be handled. When prelimenary reports were handed to the Saudis
of emanent collapse by their White House buddies they finally released the data to prevent a panic. That's how we learned that 55 billion gallons had already been pumped. They tell us that they have a plan to keep pumping oil even when the oil is inert. If you believe this fairy tale we have 50 years more oil in the Ghwar. This is what the Saudi have been protecting us from. Oh for the layperson,inert oil is the situation we have in Western Texas oil fields.
for every 100 thousand barrels of oil extracted you have to remove 10 million barrels of injected water.
Except clear water in Saudi Arabia is in short supply.
So they inject raw sea water instead.
Clear water does not react with the oil so Texas can be stripped without special measures.
Sea water reacts with the oil, we pointed this out in 1978.
So you get a salt reaction that saponifies the crude into a black soap like goo.
The unreacted crude that is left is tainted with saltwater that eats away all equipment it touches.
Russia's remaining fields have been in production for more than 50 years especially the Caspian sea area. The researve estimates are now Federation state secrets. You can draw your own conclusions.They are nowhere as large as the Ghwar field.
The Saudis have been vainly looking for another Ghwar but no luck. In fact the oil geeks have been turning every blade of grass in vain. No large researve fields anywhere just pockets of oil here and there.

>>>>>>>The writing is on the wall Folks.<<<<<<<<<<

Oh BtW:
Another neocon fantasy just bit the dust hard.
See they planned to tap the researves of natural gas from the Ghwar.
But the Saudi's used NG to distill potable water from seawater.
So even that plan to send liquified NG to America is in doubt now.

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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

And is inert oil as useful as standard oil? I suspect it's not. And doesn't it take more energy to pump out oil after some time than the energy contained in that oil? Then it is totally stupid to continue extraction...

Well i think they will somehow manage to stretch the oil age somehow...though i'm not happy about it..
I mean 7-8 years? Though it is true that international iol prices started rising...
If all we have left is that time , we should definetly prepare somehow...Maybe fuel cells will take over in that short time? Though i doubt they will...what about plastics?

I think they will rather build more coal plants insted of nuke plants, we have a lot of coal....oh yippeee....
Maybe they will make fuel out of coal for cars too....possible?

I just wonder what will happen?
Are you absolutely sure that pumping inert oil for another 50 years is a fairy tale? Isn't that soapy goo useful somehow?
Well i really hope the oil age is ending, but this may be a little too fast...it seems like it's already too late to act, so we switch without a glitch!

Adam
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Adam:

Yes the goo theory has been tested in university years ago.
It has been confirmed.
Tar sands are formed when an oil deposit has saltwater ocean water as it base as it evaporates as a land locked sea the salt turns the crude into goo like crud. Canada has loads of tar sand.

Btw one of Fusion's main selling points in the Eighties was to use fusion power to melt the tar sands for production.

LOL!

The salt water has already reached the fourth generation well heads. They are trying to use intelligent well heads that pass only oil and shut for water. But it won't last the saltwater level will get so high that the horizontal piping will finally be submerged in pure salt water. Every time they thought they could slant drill higher into the Ghwar dome to produce it only took 30 days of production for the salt water to reappear.
I hate to stake my future on Trust Us.

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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

Hmm....then we are in for it.
Do you think that alternatives (biodiesel, natural gas, fuel cells, etc..) will be able to replace gasoline in the next 10 years?

So there is about 8 years until the last "drops"? I mean we cannot run out of oil in an instant. It must take at least a couple years , a period when the gasoline prices are rising into the sky...this may have already started.

I wonder what will happen...or are we just over acting?

Adam
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Adam:

This is what people want to know.
Ever wonder why this president is so concerned with God?
He's praying the oil doesn't run out on his shift.
Estimates are just that estimates.
They wont turn into fact till the end puts a date on it.
They use fuzzy logic all the time in this stuff.
To you and me this is nothing but guessing
game.
We are truely rolling the dice here.
The really scarry part is the figures could vary +- 20 %.
The snake eyes roll coud be a lot closer than 8 years.
We simply don't know.
It is better chance to error on the side of the worst senarios here I think.
A book is now going to print on this very subject.
Wonder if it will come out for the election?


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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

I have a (maybe a little silly) question.
Is inert oil what is left after sea water reaches the well heads (meaning that they "pushed" out all the crude)? So it is a mix of oil and water. And if the water they used is salt water , then all they can extract is some gooey stuff..
Oh and where do you get this info from?

Adam
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Adam:

The information is at the website www.hudson.com
Also the Society of Petroleum Engineers has online stuff also.
Look in a Petroleum Engineering books under recovery methods.
In a couple months a book by Mullen will lay it out in print

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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

Many thanks Larry. I feel the urge to get together some solar energy converter in the next couple years....
Umm, Larry are you sure that is the website? All i get is some job site.

Adam
davidtrimmell
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by davidtrimmell »

Hi guys, I would also like to point out that it ain't all "sea water" going in those wells to push out the last bit of the black stuff! My brother-in-law worked for ARCO for many years on their big tankers, and talked about shipping quantities of "product" up to Alaska. That product was Benzene. They were pressurizing the wells with Benzene to get that last drop. Benzene is some nice stuff too. It is probably the best solvent around, and pretty good at messing you up.

When I did some Industrial Hygiene stuff for the DOE we were taught to "assume" 5% Benzene in gasoline, actual tests showed 0.1 to 2.5%.

Regards,

David Trimmell
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi David:

That benzene flush is too expensive on large fields.
It just goes to show you how desprite we are for crude.

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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Frank Sanns »

Here is a link to a site that discribes the future oil situation. http://www.hubbertpeak.com/midpoint.htm . Also click on the home page for a wealth of other info related to conventional fuels.

Frank S.
Achiever's madness; when enough is still not enough. ---FS
We have to stop looking at the world through our physical eyes. The universe is NOT what we see. It is the quantum world that is real. The rest is just an electron illusion. ---FS
3l
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Frank:

The site is very good.
It has good advice and loads of the problems.
The only difference is the time line.
I posted this after what I saw on CSPAN a meeting about the stability of the Royal Saudi family.
It ran in the dead of night at 2 am in the morning.
The Hudson Institute runs the show.
Murrow is a banker by trade in the Energy investment field.
He's the one that blew the whistle on the Saudi's little con game.
The 15-20 year figures are based on misleading numbers floated by the royal family to prop up the monarchy.
The numbers out as of last week show a very short time horizon
now thanks to the oil shenanigans of the Aramco's and the royal family.
This is vital info for folks in the know.... you can maybe meet the worst with some steps. I bought a 2kw inverter to complete my system.

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Larry Leins
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davidtrimmell
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by davidtrimmell »

Precisely. It also shows you something about the economics of Alaska oil. Great if it is subsidized...

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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

Larry are you sure about that 15 million barrels per day world oil consumption? The US alone consumes 20 million barrels per day. According to what i found the daily consumption of the world is about 75.7 million barrels per day.
The numbers don't add up.
Even with a consumption of 15 million per year, 5 billion barrels would be gone in less then a year. With 75 million barrels per day it would be gone in two months...Something is not right there.

Here is a link showing the greatest oil reserves of the world:
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0872964.html
According to this we have oil for another 30 years total (about 835 billion barrels left according to that table, and with todays consumption of 75 Mbarrels per day).

So what is going on? I'm a bit confused here...

Adam
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Adam:

The revision has not been put in yet.
That figure excludes the rest of the world.
All Americans can access are American fiqures
All the major quotes will change in the next days.
That 15 million per day is the use reported by the White House.
The higher figure sounds more like it.
That fiqure is the projection of use...IE a guess at the top levels of government.
The Saudi provides the bulk of the oil.
The US gets around 70 % of the imported oil from them.
The rest of the world gets what is left.

Adam take a look at the transport cost of automobiles in my country, there is nothing like it in Europe. We don't have public transport... at all.

But you are right the figures Do not add up at all.
The dispute is not the original field estimates but rather
how much pumping has been done on them.

I pray daily that the 30 year is right, however it does not look promising when the Saudis our good buddies are hiding vital stuff from our government. Pumping was a state secret until last week!

The point is that None in the government has a real clue.
The estimates are nothing more than wishfull thinking.
It is frightening to be a thinking person here.
I don't want to be chicken little but my rose collored are in the shop.
The American engineers that maintain and develope those numbers on world wide oil now have doubts.
For years now ,the politicians has been able to shop for the best numbers. The nintendo geologists would simulate not actually measure the field.

It could be 10 years or ten minutes...this is a civilization shaking
moment... do we just avert our eyes?

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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

Hi Larry

The white house announced that 15 million / day for the US only right? Though they cheat about five million. But i'm sure they would not say 50 million less.
So that 2003 data, of 830 billion barrels is actually a guess? It says on the site "can be extracted with present technologies and prices" and also says "prooven". Though i'm not sure what they mean by prooven.
But it seems unlikely that there is about 800 billion barrels less....
Even with the 15 Mb/day data 5000 days would mean 75 billion barrels, taking into account that the actual consumption is 75 Mb/day , 5000 days would mean 375 billion barrels...
So i don't know what to believe...the time left, the number of barrels left, or the amount of actual consumption....
I tend to believe that that 75 Mb/day is an accurate data, as it can be measured.
Now i would just want to know, how much oil is left actually.

That 830 billion barrels worldwide is 2003 data (i assume you looked at that website). IF that is true, then the info from hudson (whatever source they have) is false.
20-30 years seems much more probable then...i just don't know what data to believe.
But if in that report that you have shared they made such a big mistake as saying that the consumption is 15 Mb/day (i still don't know if they meant world or US consumption, but in both cases that data is false)...

Adam
3l
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Adam:

Do you like Coke or Pepsi?
Now you understand the problem that's been ruining my sleep lately. How can something so vital depend on such sloppy crud?
This stuff is so political and has so much impact, it is hard to take any of the data at face value.
Each group with time and money can present any point of view in data thanks to computers.
I am curious to see how this will shake out.
I'm sure they can paint a happy face on this somehow especially during election season.
I used to believe government reporting until this political spinning stuff set in.
Our government is running scared from a real boogieman....sloppy accounting ENRON style.
The proceedures were so bad they are mendeval in the scale of the screw up.
They simply stacked the production figures in a closet and never accounted for it.
In the 50's the Ghwar had rivers of oil so why bother with accounting? We aren't even sure of the figures on the paper!
In the oil companies the word "proven" is thrown around like candy...it should read in the best guess of our esteemed witchdoctors is there could be oil.

The choice is to decide to do nothing because I have a feeling that there is an acre of diamonds out back.

Crazy Huh?


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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

Yeah, crazy...to me the fact that the oil prices are rising, is enough. it is a sing, that we can all see, and feel.
Here in Europe, they wroked out a plan to slowly disassemlbe the oil industry.
Here is their planned schedule:

2010: Wide scale production of hydrogen cars, hydrogen filling stations, that are not yet ina common system, and get hydrogan by trucks.
2020: Hydrogen cars for the same price, and with the same capabilities as conventional cars.
Connecting the filling stations into a network.
2030: Wide spread hydrogen pipe system
2040: Fuel cells, and hydrogen motors are now widely used , and become the dominant technology in transportation.
2050: Hydrogen powered airplanes

Thats what they are planning....they should hurry up a bit with those plans.

This is definetly the end of the oil age (the beggining of the end) and the dawn of the hydrogen age.

Adam
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Frank Sanns »

The good news is that the reserves will last many more years into the future. The problem is that consumption is growing at a rate that will exceed oil production some time within the next decade. All the world will be forced to conserve to reduce consumption but we will not run out on that particular day. Sure it will be tougher but if everybody at that point used 10% less fuel then we would all be fine for another couple of years at which point we would have to conserve 20% and then 30% and ...... You get the idea. We will not just wake up one day and there not be oil. It will just get pricey and hard to come by more and more. It will be relatively gradual even though when it first starts, there will be panic. That is just the ways folks are.

Frank S.
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We have to stop looking at the world through our physical eyes. The universe is NOT what we see. It is the quantum world that is real. The rest is just an electron illusion. ---FS
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by davidtrimmell »

Ok. My take. We have at least 30+ years oil supply even with China and India. BUT and big BUT, the cost is going to skyrocket! Reserves are in the Artic and Antarctic with very high costs to market. Demand will eventually slow with further evidence of anthropogenic Global climate change and insurance companies loosing big time. Factors whirling fast in the chaos of time. We will see (are seeing) great advancements in efficiency of electronics. Ethyl and Methyl Alcohols, along with Biodiesel will become price competitive and with the closed loop carbon cycle, will be environmentally sound. Efficiency is the name of the game. These hairless Apes will keep pushing forward; I only hope it is to a world respectful of all life.

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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Richard Hull »

Frank and Dave have it right.

The oil will price itself out of all reason. We will never use the last drop... or get close to it.

In 2090 gasoline will be a chemical commonly available from Alfa-Aesar. in 500ml lab bottles for $41.50 or a 4 pack of 1 liter bottles for $200.00.

Oil will just leave the scene due to simple economics and not due to using it all up. Yes, there will be panic and yes, there will be oil wars international and civil, but it will all shake out and we will be on something else.

I may not live to see the light at the end of the tunnel though. (>40 years) I might make it to the first of the darkest days, (~20 years). OR..... the whole thing might be made moot by some super source of unappreciated energy. (not likely)

Richard Hull
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Guys:

You guys imply that they had a coherent plan.
I can assure you they do not have one.
Richard's scenario is the best one.
But it depends on rational restraint at the end.
We shall see if Alpha Aesar will get to list gasoline at those prices.
I'll bet they will come in 1ml vials at 100 bucks each.

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Re: The last days of oil

Post by ChrisSmolinski »

I saw the latest copy of National Geographic at a relatives house last week,
the cover article was screaming that we're running out of oil for sure this time.
Really, honest, this time we mean it. Yawn.

It's simple economics. Every subsititute for fossil fuels at this point is an also-
ran because fossil fuels are so cheap. Even at $1.80 a gallon, gas today is a
bargain compared to where it was a decade ago, especially taking inflation
into account.

Only when the price point of oil and coal reach a high enough point, will other
energy sources become viable. This won't happen until the demand/supply
ratio gets high enough. As this starts to happen, and the price of oil starts to
rise, previously un-economical sources will be tapped, keeping the supply
available, for those willing to pay the price anyway. And exploration will
continue to find new deposits.

My gut feeling is that it will take oil reaching a sustained price of around $50 a
barrel before other other energy sources start to be seriously investigated.
Sustained. Not these short term blips. The Saudis and the rest of OPEC want
to keep oil in the $30-$35 range. Remember, their goal is to maximize profit.
(Of course OPEC is a den of thieves and they all cheat on their quotas, but
that is another story) Ideally they want to be able to pump that last barrel of oil
out and sell it. If the price goes to $50 a barrel too soon, other energy sources
become attractive. Worse for OPEC, once there is a serious effort made to
develop other sources and start volume production, they become even less
expensive, once the R&D is amortized and factories are churning out millions
of the necessary widgets (whatever they are). So oil has to come *down* in
price to become competitive once other sources are in use.

Personally, I don't think there's a silver bullet - that is, one solution. Well, I do
think it's fission, but the politics make that impossible at the moment (Oil at
$50 a barrel and gas at $3 a gallon can change politics of course). I think
there's a whole host of answers, each playing a small part. Better design of
homes to take advantage of solar heating in the winter, and preventing it in
the summer. Solar cells, once the price per kWhr comes down by an order of
magnitude. Or two. Serious use of hydro power, we're nuts for letting all that
water go over Niagra Falls. Wind turbines are nifty, if for no other reason than
for letting the greenies show their true colors, since they've opposed virtually
every suggested deployment of them. And there's the obvious issue with
automobiles, somehow convincing the public that they do not need to drive a
vehicle that looks like (and gets the milage of) a Sherman tank. I don't like the
idea of changing personal habits through oppressive taxation, but a
nationwide automobile tax inversely proportional to the MPG of the car could
be interesting. Just as long as you punish the SUV driving yuppie, and not
the housewife with 4 kids who has a legitimate need for a large vehicle.

I think, in the end, it will be much as Richard has suggested. There will be
spurts of panic as the price of crude jumps upwards, resulting in spurts of
R&D and serious investigation of other energy sources. The private sector is
probably best equipped to deal with it anyway. Would you really want new
energy source development to be run by the same clowns as fusion, and
public housing for that matter?
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