Another Big "What If?"

Reflections on fusion history, current events, and predictions for the 'fusion powered future.
Quarkpot
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Another Big "What If?"

Post by Quarkpot »

Another Big "What If?"

This is an example of "putting the cart before the horse" or "counting one's chickens before the eggs hatch". On the other hand Steven Covey of "The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People" listed #2 as " Begin with the end in mind", so here it is...

If someone were able to produce a fusion device or technology that could "break even" or be self-sustaining, how should he market it?

History is full of examples of inventors, authors, artists, etc. who have been "taken advantage of" and who have received very little of the proceeds of their work.

Potential pitfalls include patent procedures, international patent rights, the concept of a "Master Patent", finding a "buyer" that could or would pay what the new technology would be worth, the limited lifetime of a patent coupled with regulatory requirements, etc. Would incorporation, a public relations campaign, and an initial public offering be the way to go, or would attempting to market the rights to one or more utilities or governments individually be more advantageous?

A workable fusion process that produces a positive net energy flow would be equivalent to owning the rights to "fire" or "the wheel", but how could the inventor hope to be compensated for anything near what it would be worth?
MontyRoberts
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by MontyRoberts »

Well, this is something I have experience in. Patents are merely the right to sue somebody. That is it. They are useful only in proportion to the size of your legal offense/defense fund. Protecting such an earth shattering idea would require massive amounts of capital and international patents. Rest assured you will not stop the Chinese, Russians or others from producing it.

I would suggest anybody who discovers such a thing publish it in the public domain, copyright it, and enjoy your fame as the first to accomplish such a feat. You will make more off of your speeches, appearances, fellowships, awards, and book deals than you ever will if you get involved in the patent and protect game. You will be in demand as a consultant. Your life will be much happier. You will be able to afford the worlds best work shop and any tool, gadget, or computer you desire. Is there anything any of us really want more than this? Do you really want a Lear jet and an entourage? A huge organization to manage? Legal headaches, business headaches?

Even if you do patent it, there will be a zillion ways to accomplish the same thing, each of which will be patented. Processes, materials, methods of manufacture-the list is endless.

There is nothing sadder than an inventor greedily hoarding his "patentable" material in hopes of making the big score. More often than not they have nothing of real value and if they do it is stolen and their patents busted. They wind up bitter and broke. Corporations have a pathological dislike of paying royalties to anybody. I know, I have been at the conference room table with very bright people figuring out how to get around patents. This is typically very easy. I have numerous US and international patents issued and pending. Patents are nothing more than another lever to be used by and against competing business entities. The individual of average means would be better off playing a lone game of football, naked, against the defensive line of the current super bowl champions in full gear.

These are the facts man. Get used to it or become very bitter and poor.
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Richard Hull
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Richard Hull »

Monty got it correct. No person who invents or patents break even or power ready fusion will make an effective dime off the thing. Oh, they might make a million net dollars after the patents, lawyers and other hangers-on scurry back into the woodwork, but most liklely one will never be repaid for even a fraction of the effort........More likely, one will find oneself repeatedly bent over a table for all to take a free shot at.

The idea of making money off the invention of break even fusion is rather niave and ludicrous in the twenty first century.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
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Mike Veldman
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Mike Veldman »

I definately have to agree with Monty about the patents based on my years on the bleeding edge of optical disk technology. I'm one of the guys with his name next to the first CD rom cut in the world. We were working in partnership with NV Phillips on the mastering systems at the time, they had the most stable transports at that time in the industry and I based my argon laser pitting system on a Magnavox transport, which Phillips manufactured. They had a department devoted to just patents, whose sole purpose was to patent file and persue and they spent more money than the research cost. As far as I can tell patents are just more welfare for lawyers. In my case for the next five years after we cut the product I had consulting retainers and contracts comming from every direction, and the same for the other guys I worked with. After that I hoped to never see an optical disk or a nondisclosure agreement or an invented property clause again. I'm a firm believer in just getting the idea out there and go on to whatever is next, life is a big wheel. But, then I live for the for the invention, not the money. So here I am working at a university where we have these faculty researchers running around wanting to make everything top secret so they can retain the patent rights for future liscensing, they have no clue, just the rumors and the lure of the big score. I didn't become broke and bitter, I just got more chances to play with more and varied fun things at someone elses expense.

Juat my couple of cents.

mike
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DaveC
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by DaveC »

It seems to me that unless the fusion energy coverter is coupled to an efficient energy extractor.. (a la some form of the charged particle braking devices discussed elswhere)...not a lot of improvement in the heat rejection will occur.

By going to all-electric drive vehicles, and using similar technology on other systems that had been thermo-mechanical, one shifts the heat rejection focus from the end use deivce, to the source conversion system... the fusion system.

So.. there is a twin challenge there, the fusion method itself, clearly the hardest and least understood - as far as ways to do it are concerned - and..... the actual energy extraction method.

Recall also, that since in the D-D process neutrons carry almost half of the energy, then an efficient neutron energy extractor is needed too.

Just in case anyone was getting bored and needed a little challenge or three....or four....

Dave Cooper
Quarkpot
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Quarkpot »

Let me see if I got this correct. No fame, no fortune, and no chicks?

This in a society where someone who can slam dunk a basketball can make millions of dollars a year?

All the inventor of practical controlled fusion would have to look forward to would be a few days on the morning talk shows, followed by endless tours selling books, autographing t-shirts, and judging high school science fairs.

Thank you Monty, Richard, and Mike for the informative replies.

Note to self:
1. Sell the high voltage power supply on ebay.
2. Study for the Realtors license exam.
3. Renew the Playboy subscription.
VividHugh
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by VividHugh »

Thanks guys, this was thoroughly entertaining as well as informative. I suggest somebody sell the whole thread to Popular Mechanics or some such rag for a couple hundred bucks. A lot of people would profit from reading it and it's wittily written.
Jon Rosenstiel
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Jon Rosenstiel »

And remember, the t-shirts you'll be signing will not be as "well-formed" as the t-shirts the multi-million dollar sports star signs!

Jon Rosenstiel
Todd Massure
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Todd Massure »

Let's say someone, an individual or small group comes up with power ready fusion. Just to make it interesting let's say it is our own Brian McDermott. Let's say a couple of years from now Brian announces to all of us.
I have done it! Behold! the 12 grided fusor!
Brian, being a smart guy doesn't even try to patent the 12 grided fusor, instead, he publishes, and hits the lecture circuit.
He's fairly well paid on the circuit, plus he totally scores with chicks at the ComiCon, Star Trek Conventions (who no longer need hard to come by dilithium crystals and are not shy about showing their pointy eared gratitude), not to mention in his Physics and Math classes.
But he still likes to have his own facilities and especially a well equipped lab, so he runs a small business doing one off, cutom "McDermotrons" as they have become commonly known.
One day however, a letter comes in the mail and says that he must stop making 12 grided McDermotrons, for Acme Fusor LLC. has patented both the 12 AND 13 grided fusor configuration.

Now seriously for a minute, could something like this happen? or would a person in a similar situation be able to prove he still has rights to produce his product because he invented it and was the first to publish the configuration etc.?

-Todd
(hope you didn't mind the jokes Brian!)
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Starfire »

Dream on - I don't think you will ever get to the stage where decisions have to be made regarding patents. Identify that you have a successful process of fusion and Big Brother will kick in to ensure you don't have Patent or Publishing problems. This would be too big a step with the potential to compromise the " National Interest ". Be content to achieve for your own interest and keep it a secret from all. Make it your daily prayer that no one will ever learn of your success and that you are allowed to live ' ? ' long and prosper by other means.
-- If you wanna get rich - open a brothel, over your bar, next to your casino { my life's ambition } and try not to be noticed. --
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Brian McDermott
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Brian McDermott »

This situation you describe seems to parallel the ordeal between Farnsworth and RCA over the Television. I'll let Richard and the Perfesser address that.

I don't mind the jokes at all.
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Mike Veldman
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Mike Veldman »

When Brian gets his 12 gridded fusor power source perfected please let me know. I have several friends who keep bugging me to come up with a stable power source for this spaceship idea they have. They seem to think it's time we ventured out for our own look at the universe, remote viewing is not enough of an experience. We'll save you a seat on the joyride.

mike
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Richard Hull
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Richard Hull »

John understands people and what makes the world really go round.

Smart money sees to it they have
1. sex (brothel)
2. A get rich quick hope or carrot hung out that lures them to the promise of riches for no work. (gamlbing includes investment schemes)
3. A source of drugs and food of their choice to lose themselves when they are bored with sex and have little or no money, having lost it all in the casino (bar&grill).
4. Try not to be noticed. A low profile is a must for if they see you doing well off their money in a sober moment, you are cooked.

Folks are not great cerbartionists on whole and allow any number of siren songs to call them off hither and thither. The man who uses and satisfies their inherent weakness is on the main track to a good life of wealth and prosperity.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
3l
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by 3l »

Hi Guys:

You missed the legions of people who hold the coats for the lawyers. Middlemen will always get a cut no matter what!
Pimps,congressmen,senators,spokespeople,lobbiests and exwives will not be denied!
Anything usefull or next to any money source will draw these people like ants to a picnic.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
Fusor Tech
Coulomb
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Coulomb »

I know this is an old thread, but it is still a good question. How could you make the appropriate return off something so revolutionary, that would probably be easy and inexpensive to duplicate and pirate?

Because of regulatory and public relations issues, it would be very time consuming and expensive to get a fusion power plant licensed and built in the U.S. You could not build without a license, EIS, etc. But the licensing regulations and standards do not even exist. It would be a long time before the money comes in, instead of flowing out. And the value of a workable fusion technology would far more than any corporation would be willing and able to pay.

A likely candidate might be China, since they have a positive balance of trade ratio (swimming in dollars), a large manufacturing base, huge population with a growing demand for electrical power, and essentially no problem at all with regulatory issues.

You could do a lot worse than just selling the "exclusive" rights, directly to the Chinese government. (To lessen the public relations fallout, the same offer could be made first in the U.S.)

Other possibilities might be France, Japan, or South Korea, but they would all be tied for a distant second place.
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Carl Willis
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Carl Willis »

>Because of regulatory and public relations issues, it would be very time consuming and expensive to get a fusion power plant licensed and built in the U.S.<

Supposing one had a monumental breakthrough like a benchtop fusion power plant to offer, I think your logical option would be straightforward: patent it, build it, and demonstrate it first, worry about licensing and perhaps serving a stint in the big house later (or not at all). It's all about priorities. The reality is that Investors won't touch an idea with a ten-foot pole--they only appreciate demonstrable hardware (and with sound reason). Asking for money to get the gig licensed before building it is a dead end. Just build it, win the Nobel Prize in physics, and if you turn your backyard into a Superfund site while doing it...well, at that point, people will be groveling at your knees for the privilege of being allowed to clean up your mess.

-Carl
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djolds1
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by djolds1 »

Doubt he does make any money. Not much at any rate.The example of the cotton gin in the 19th century is relevent. The patent(s) would be violated globally with impunity. Maybe the inventor gets a minor settlement after a time, but the inventor does not ride this tiger to become the next Bill Gates. Its simply too useful and too fundamental for the various nations & global interests to respect the usual law.

Duane
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Richard Hull
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Richard Hull »

It is always nice to place the cart before the horse and dream.

Carl put it right. If you have something, build it. Demo it. Stand back so as to not get trampled by the crowd beating a path to your doorstep.

If you can't build it or can't prove it via demo. Drop it. It won't work.

There is very little energy seeking sucker money left out there unless you develop a good bunko scam and prepare for the associated jail time.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
Coulomb
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Coulomb »

Good points. The Cotton Gin was a VERY pertinent example.

In your opinion(s), assuming that our researcher had produced a working net positive energy output prototype without loss of life or limb, would he be advised to:
(a) conduct a public demonstration and wait for business proposals, then sell out
(b) submit evidence to recognized, accredited organizations and journals, and wait for business proposals
(c) conduct a private demonstration for a small group of major utilities and corporations
(d) contact the "Energy Czar" of the federal government, try to "grease the skids"
(e) incorporate, feed the frenzy, announce a worldwide Initial Public Offering, retain all development rights, find a hospitable country willing to allow large scale development
(f) release the technology into the public domain for the good of all mankind, feel the love, sell books, wait for the Noble Prize
(g) forget the whole thing, they don't deserve it
djolds1
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by djolds1 »

(Shrug)

Irrelevent. I was replying to the scenario as stated. Yes, POC is the requisite first step in validating any potentially viable fusion power tech, first actually proving it works, but that is stipulated in the scenario.

Duane
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by djolds1 »

> Good points. The Cotton Gin was a VERY pertinent example.
>
> In your opinion(s), assuming that our researcher had
> produced a working net positive energy output prototype
> without loss of life or limb, would he be advised to:

> (a) conduct a public demonstration and wait for business
> proposals, then sell out

No. Too much chance of replaying the Cold Fusion experience.
POs the physics establishment and risks pariah status if you get a few details moderately wrong.

Note that I am not asserting that cold fusion was an actual nuclear process, only that the intra-academic & real-world political consequences would be similar.

> (b) submit evidence to recognized, accredited organizations
> and journals, and wait for business proposals

Yes. Get the concept validated by multiple experts in the field.
Once its validated, you move on to money and glory. If you get a few details wrong, people will keep plugging away at it to tweak it into shape.

First step.

> (c) conduct a private demonstration for a small group of major
> utilities and corporations

Same problem as "a."

> (d) contact the "Energy Czar" of the federal government, try
> to "grease the skids"

Unnecessary. Once validated, money for scale up via national level programs will appear.

And hopefully Scamamaks will be defunded (evil grin).

> (e) incorporate, feed the frenzy, announce a worldwide Initial
> Public Offering, retain all development rights, find a hospitable
> country willing to allow large scale development

Good odds you're written off as a crank. Even if you're right, no one with resources and/or a rep to make it stick will bother to look at your work for 1-2 generations.

> (f) release the technology into the public domain for the good
> of all mankind, feel the love, sell books, wait for the Noble Prize

Someone up thread proposed this. Don't bother trying to enforce patents and legal rights that every nation on Earth will ignore. Make the announcement, take the honors, receive multiple generous grants and awards with money to boot, and spend the rest of your life as a highly paid consultant and guest lecturer making 70k USD (2007 dollars) per speech.

Fight for the legal rights and you end up poor, bitter, and held in contempt by world opinion.

I agree with this.

> (g) forget the whole thing, they don't deserve it

I am Ming the Merciless! Nothing will stop my fusion powered ravening armies of death!!!

:):)

Duane
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by MSimon »

If you want to do something at the margins the best thing to do (provided it is not too repulsive - heh) is to get as much publicity as you can and to have some stalwart friends.

It is not a sure thing - what is in this world - but what is done in secret can be done away with in secret.

BTW better thatn a whore house - the girls can often be hard to manage - is an escort service. The more upscale ladies tend to be more reliable. Same for the bar - a club is better. As to the casino fill it with $5 slots and bacarat tables to keep out the riff raff.

It is just like the fusion business. If you are going to fail would you rather have the ITER budget? Or Dr. Bussard's current level of finances?
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Richard Hull
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Richard Hull »

Coulomb did not enumerate a group of different fusion victory paths above. He effectively enumerated the different personalities in this fray and the paths they would take.

You can bet that no one in this current world would give a lone wolf discoverer an even break, but would break him, instead. The path anyone would take if they had a worldbeater idea is based not so much on what would succeed, but the path that would suit their personality.

Whether it soars them to fame and fortune or leaves them destitute and broken is a matter of a chain of events which may or may not relate to the path they have taken.

One could undoubtedly do the same thing twice in different times or circumstances and have two different or alternate outcomes.

I doubt if anyone of us will be faced with such a situation where we are set, in fact or just in our minds, to change the world and be forced to choose a path.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
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Carl Willis
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Carl Willis »

The right thing to do, essentially regardless of the nature of the project, would be:

1. Document the work exhaustively like any good scientist

2. Patent the intellectual property in whatever jurisdictions are appropriate to the inventor's commercial vision

3. Publish complete details of the physical apparatus and any measurements in the peer-reviewed scientific and engineering literature. Attend conferences. Go on the lecture circuit. Go to Stockholm to pick up your little medal thingy from the King of Sweden.

4. Seek licensees or buyers for the intellectual property, or form partnerships as appropriate to continue developing the property and marketing any deliverables. Since this is an energy innovation, government grant sponsorship is likely. Expect folks like General Motors, the Coal Council, and OPEC to engage in aggressive denial of the science and issue focus-group-tested negative advertising which, while ultimately futile, will be annoying for a few years.

-Carl
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Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by mheslep »

3.a) Claim only what you carefully measure and observe ("I found He") and what you did not see but were expecting ("I found no Neutrons"). Do not loosely speculate on the cause. That is, if you are zapping some deuterated Paladium in Utah and have evidence of He, you can say you found some He. Do not call the press and say this must be fusion because you don't know that's the case.
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