The end of the supply of oil

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David Rosignoli
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The end of the supply of oil

Post by David Rosignoli » Fri Aug 05, 2005 2:01 pm

Here is an article about the Hircsch report. Not to sound conspiratorial (it is posted on the Guerrilla News Network!), but this DOE commissioned report on the supply of oil predicts dire consequences if action is not taken (no surprise to this crowd). Interesting to see that this report got no news coverage here in the US. ... sch_Report

The actual 91 page document can be found here: ... j_Cens.pdf

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Re: The end of the supply of oil

Post by 3l » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:54 pm

Hi folks:

The date of the end point obtained by DOE in 1976 was 2009.
It has not changed one iota since.
That was for primary sources of hydrocarbon.
We are already into secondary sources of fuel .

At 70 dollars a barrel Oil sands are open for business!
(fuels needing energy for extraction ... LNG,ethanol,hydrogen)

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
Fusor Tech

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Re: The end of the supply of oil

Post by DaveC » Fri Aug 05, 2005 7:56 pm

I have seen similar projections of where the inflection point - the downturn in new resources discoveries - occurs. An internal power company report done in the mid 90's pointed then to 2015 time frame for the peak of oil production.

It should be noted that these predictions are routinely made, and tend to form an advancing date trend. The predictions peak (or bottom) about 20 -30 yrs out. This actually represents the limit to reasonably accurate knowledge of resources - the known resources. I think in oil/gas parlance, "proven resources" are another thing and are smaller.

With the advent of the hybrid vehicles, however, now just about to become a practical reality across major car lines of mfrs., the vehicular energy consumption is probably going to take a real nosedive in the next decade. Going from 15 to 45 mpg for practically everything, will relieve the demand on gasoline. If and when the practical fuel cell for "hydrocarbon fuels" -not hydrogen - arrives, (it is almost as far behind predictions as fusion is, incidentally), then transportation fuel usage will dip again by probably another 1/4 to 1/3. But now we are reaching the point of diminishing returns, where the basic amount of energy needed to transport a body and stable, safe, containment vehicle (your car)... is reached. We won't go much below that point without major sociological changes. But that looks to be 50 yrs out... or more.

So these issues are probably not too worrisome in the object sense. Political system stability is another thing, though.

But keep an eye on the pertrochemical industry's investment strategies. Note that Shell and others are beginning to tout.."Solar". Not much more than an advertising ploy at this juncture, but an indicator that they are looking ahead at their future markets. They have got Trillions at stake, so when they start to pull out of new investments in refineries, and etc... THAT IS A SIGN the bottom of the barrel has been seen.


Dave Cooper

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Richard Hull
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Re: The end of the supply of oil

Post by Richard Hull » Fri Aug 05, 2005 9:13 pm

Don't foget GE is starting to heavily push and invest in coal technology. Future energy is surely headed for coal and nuclear on a global scale as they are the only ones showing futures in century long time scales. Certainly solar, wind, geothermal and biomass are out there and will suppliment..... However, they will not supply.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
Retired now...Doing only what I want and not what I should...every day is a saturday.

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