Another Big "What If?"

Reflections on fusion history, current events, and predictions for the 'fusion powered future.
djolds1
Posts: 56
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 7:30 pm
Real name:

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by djolds1 »

> Good points. The Cotton Gin was a VERY pertinent example.
>
> In your opinion(s), assuming that our researcher had
> produced a working net positive energy output prototype
> without loss of life or limb, would he be advised to:

> (a) conduct a public demonstration and wait for business
> proposals, then sell out

No. Too much chance of replaying the Cold Fusion experience.
POs the physics establishment and risks pariah status if you get a few details moderately wrong.

Note that I am not asserting that cold fusion was an actual nuclear process, only that the intra-academic & real-world political consequences would be similar.

> (b) submit evidence to recognized, accredited organizations
> and journals, and wait for business proposals

Yes. Get the concept validated by multiple experts in the field.
Once its validated, you move on to money and glory. If you get a few details wrong, people will keep plugging away at it to tweak it into shape.

First step.

> (c) conduct a private demonstration for a small group of major
> utilities and corporations

Same problem as "a."

> (d) contact the "Energy Czar" of the federal government, try
> to "grease the skids"

Unnecessary. Once validated, money for scale up via national level programs will appear.

And hopefully Scamamaks will be defunded (evil grin).

> (e) incorporate, feed the frenzy, announce a worldwide Initial
> Public Offering, retain all development rights, find a hospitable
> country willing to allow large scale development

Good odds you're written off as a crank. Even if you're right, no one with resources and/or a rep to make it stick will bother to look at your work for 1-2 generations.

> (f) release the technology into the public domain for the good
> of all mankind, feel the love, sell books, wait for the Noble Prize

Someone up thread proposed this. Don't bother trying to enforce patents and legal rights that every nation on Earth will ignore. Make the announcement, take the honors, receive multiple generous grants and awards with money to boot, and spend the rest of your life as a highly paid consultant and guest lecturer making 70k USD (2007 dollars) per speech.

Fight for the legal rights and you end up poor, bitter, and held in contempt by world opinion.

I agree with this.

> (g) forget the whole thing, they don't deserve it

I am Ming the Merciless! Nothing will stop my fusion powered ravening armies of death!!!

:):)

Duane
MSimon
Posts: 248
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2007 11:27 pm
Real name:
Contact:

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by MSimon »

If you want to do something at the margins the best thing to do (provided it is not too repulsive - heh) is to get as much publicity as you can and to have some stalwart friends.

It is not a sure thing - what is in this world - but what is done in secret can be done away with in secret.

BTW better thatn a whore house - the girls can often be hard to manage - is an escort service. The more upscale ladies tend to be more reliable. Same for the bar - a club is better. As to the casino fill it with $5 slots and bacarat tables to keep out the riff raff.

It is just like the fusion business. If you are going to fail would you rather have the ITER budget? Or Dr. Bussard's current level of finances?
User avatar
Richard Hull
Moderator
Posts: 14992
Joined: Fri Jun 15, 2001 9:44 am
Real name: Richard Hull

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Richard Hull »

Coulomb did not enumerate a group of different fusion victory paths above. He effectively enumerated the different personalities in this fray and the paths they would take.

You can bet that no one in this current world would give a lone wolf discoverer an even break, but would break him, instead. The path anyone would take if they had a worldbeater idea is based not so much on what would succeed, but the path that would suit their personality.

Whether it soars them to fame and fortune or leaves them destitute and broken is a matter of a chain of events which may or may not relate to the path they have taken.

One could undoubtedly do the same thing twice in different times or circumstances and have two different or alternate outcomes.

I doubt if anyone of us will be faced with such a situation where we are set, in fact or just in our minds, to change the world and be forced to choose a path.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
User avatar
Carl Willis
Posts: 2841
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2001 7:33 pm
Real name: Carl Willis
Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
Contact:

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Carl Willis »

The right thing to do, essentially regardless of the nature of the project, would be:

1. Document the work exhaustively like any good scientist

2. Patent the intellectual property in whatever jurisdictions are appropriate to the inventor's commercial vision

3. Publish complete details of the physical apparatus and any measurements in the peer-reviewed scientific and engineering literature. Attend conferences. Go on the lecture circuit. Go to Stockholm to pick up your little medal thingy from the King of Sweden.

4. Seek licensees or buyers for the intellectual property, or form partnerships as appropriate to continue developing the property and marketing any deliverables. Since this is an energy innovation, government grant sponsorship is likely. Expect folks like General Motors, the Coal Council, and OPEC to engage in aggressive denial of the science and issue focus-group-tested negative advertising which, while ultimately futile, will be annoying for a few years.

-Carl
Carl Willis
http://carlwillis.wordpress.com/
TEL: +1-505-412-3277
mheslep
Posts: 258
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:42 am
Real name:

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by mheslep »

3.a) Claim only what you carefully measure and observe ("I found He") and what you did not see but were expecting ("I found no Neutrons"). Do not loosely speculate on the cause. That is, if you are zapping some deuterated Paladium in Utah and have evidence of He, you can say you found some He. Do not call the press and say this must be fusion because you don't know that's the case.
DaveC
Posts: 2346
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2001 1:13 am
Real name:

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by DaveC »

Well put Carl and Falstaff. This is undoubtedly the generic path, that is followed for most successful discoveries.

To my mind, it seems reasonable that had Farnsworth been as successful with his early fusion efforts, as the Fission effort had been, then he would not have been a tired and discouraged inventor at the end. He would played a key role in the multifaceted development of a Fusion energy resource.

The ITT organization seemed to be poised to give it shot, not with unlimited money, but some money and a few years. As things seemed to stall, others were brought in to help, but, in the end, no one was able to get far enough to keep Sr. Mgmt interested. There's nothing either sinister or unusual about this. It happens everyday, somewhere, in Government or industry.

One thing you can be sure of, is that the mainstream fusion scientists are well aware of almost everything that impinges on their work. Despite their own strongly entrenched mind-sets, paradigms, and rationales, the facts of science speak... eloquently to these folks.

If you have the contrarian approach, and have results to show, you WILL be on the program of the next conference, and your work WILL get reviewed, sieved, scrutinized, picked apart, and countered. If it holds up under this onslaught, you definitely have something. And, if it is a fusion process, that actually works, unquestionably,... you WILL one day be needing a ticket to a Scandanavian locale for a well deserved 15 minutes of fame and glory.

But the sorting process is not kind to the players and workers. The true scientist is not a complaining wimp, but a gutsy, intuitive, hard working individual. On occasion, one of their number has come along who is truly a visionary, able to put a number ot isolated facts together, making a new grander thing.
But most are in the laboratories, producing, facts.

We are presently awaiting the sufficient assortment of facts and that certain someone with the grand vision to assemble them.

Dave Cooper
MontyRoberts
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 11:52 pm
Real name:

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by MontyRoberts »

Two years later and I stand by my original post, now with even more conviction. Things have changed technology wise and everybody is thinking with the old frame of reference.

I think the airplane is a good example to look at here. There were many who had proposed and even demonstrated various flying contraptions prior to the Wrights. Some of them actually were better ideas. The difference was the Wrights made something demonstrable and repeatable that flew under its own power. That was what they did right.

What they did wrong: They patented a, wing warping, biplane, canard pusher. How many wing warping biplane canard pushers do we fly in today? Many others got around their patents by building better more advanced designs. The Wrights bitterly fought over patent rights in the court system, even after the state of the art had passed them by.

The patent is a legal monopoly sanctioned by the state and enforced via the courts. It has no real value otherwise and no analogy outside of the framework of the law. In other words it is simply words on a piece of paper. I would argue the concept of the patent is obsolete, so is copyright. Information technology has rendered it so. Those who ignore this fact do so at their own peril. Those who embrace it and structure their business accordingly will thrive.

The pace of change in the marketplace is stunning. Most products will be totally obsolete long before the patent expires. The idea will be sliced, diced and dissected, reinvented, improved and changed 100 times before even the first round of patent litigation is appealed.

The manufacturing sector is on its way to becoming totally automated distributed and very responsive. A factory making one product this week can be making another next week. In fact most manufacturing is now customized with one factory making related products for many different companies. Things are different now.

Conceiving, designing, and producing all the applications of a new technology are beyond the abilities of an individual or even a single company. You have expertise in one area. It is a better system if you work with many companies and individuals to apply that expertise broadly.

Whatever you patent will be obsolete before the ink dries.

Your work is merely an advertisement for your skills and abilities. Just make sure you get the credit so the work comes your way. You must document and keep processes and methods confidential, or publish what you do to prevent others from trying to patent your work. You must be able to show prior art.

Stay at the bleeding edge and what do you need with patents?

Let the competition play catch up and sue. It will be like an anvil around their neck, just as you are grabbing the next balloon.

I see no reason why a working fusion device is any different than any other product. If anything what I am saying is even more applicable due to the huge demand for such a device.

I say publicly release the details of the working device widely all over the world (with your name on it), sit back and watch the show.

I am sure you will be amply rewarded.

People will want to pay you rather than try to reinvent the wheel. They don’t have the time, resources, or expertise. If you attempt to hoard all the goodies then rest assured they will hire a lot of smart people who do have the expertise to get around you.

Try to guard it, keep it secret, patent it, or otherwise control it and you will be left behind with a lot of legal bills and a very sad outcome.

Monty
Coulomb
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu May 24, 2007 6:01 pm
Real name:

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Coulomb »

Good posts, interesting points.

Not stated anywhere here, but perhaps a factor, would be the size and economic scale of the fusion device. A breakthrough fusion technology toward the Tokamak end of the size/cost scale would be less likely to be copied by every Tom, Dick, and Harry than a tabletop fusion technology such as a Fusor. Any breakthrough based on a Fusor would be modified and deployed by numerous trade schools, small-scale entrepreneurs, and refrigerator repairmen. A large-scale, very expensive technology would only be reproducible by large governments or major corporations, which would be more inclined to honor patent and licensing conventions, since they would have something to lose in litigation.

(not that we have any choice in which scale will eventually be successful)
mheslep
Posts: 258
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:42 am
Real name:

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by mheslep »

Monty Roberts wrote:
>The difference was the Wrights made something demonstrable and repeatable that flew under its own power. That was what they did right.
>
Yes I saw the Nova program too, great show. What they got right was aircraft _control_, not just lift and propulsion. As Nova showed lotsa folks could ~ do lift and propulsion but the Wrights were way ahead in terms of control which they achieved by systematic investigation of aerodynamics and Bernoulli.

> What they did wrong: They patented a, wing warping, biplane, canard pusher. How many wing warping biplane canard pushers do we fly in today?
So? Can you elaborate as to why patenting their concept, which required large sacrifice, effort and time, is 'wrong'? Scratch that. Please see Federalist 43.

>
> The patent is a legal monopoly sanctioned by the state and enforced via the courts. It has no real value otherwise and no analogy outside of the framework of the law. In other words it is simply words on a piece of paper. I would argue the concept of the patent is obsolete, so is copyright.

Ah excellent!! Guys Ive got this great new song I want to distribute and sell. Goes something like:
"You say you want a revolution
Well you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it's evolution
Well you know ...."

Falstaff
User avatar
Richard Hull
Moderator
Posts: 14992
Joined: Fri Jun 15, 2001 9:44 am
Real name: Richard Hull

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Richard Hull »

Patents in the Wright's time were cheap and rather easy to obtain. A private joe had no problems.

Has anyone HERE, in the US, actually privately started the patent process and seen it through to the end, having patent in hand?!!

What did it cost? In time? In money? In heartache?

If you are with a company and patent through them, that is really not your patent and it doesn't count.

Patents are very, very useless to the ingenious, inventive, private joe working 9-5, for all the reasons given above in other postings.

Back to the scale issue.... Who knows at what scale fusion will first morph itself into real power? I have a sneaking suspicion it will be big, very big. Nothing really patentable there. Will it stay big? Probably not.

Somehow I think fission is the natural winner and fusion will be a loser unless such a masterful new thing happens that it will push fission into being considered one of the worst power systems ever created. Fusion will probably not arrive in any usable form until the last sentence can be the whole truth, without reservation. It just will not happen in my lifetime, of that, I am sure.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
George Schmermund
Posts: 262
Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2006 8:51 pm
Real name: George Schmermund
Location: Carlsbad, CA

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by George Schmermund »

Richard - I can raise my hand and say "yes, I've prosecuted three utility patents from scratch." Nolo Press publishes a good book for DIYers. There are also other patents with my name on them that have been assigned to other people. I have no problem with that because they rewarded me handsomely as a consultant.

I may have forfeited any future money that the assigned patents might bring, but I went into the deal with my eyes open. I wouldn't have patented the assigned material myself, anyway. The ideas for those projects were only mildly interesting to me. But, that technology was the very core of the assignee's manufacturing process, so it meant a lot to them.

The real value of owned or assigned patents (that I'm directly aware of) is the huge bargaining chips they give me. To be granted a utility patent (the hardest to get) an invention must be 'novel' and 'unobvious' to a person skilled in that technology. Now that anyone can Google patents, it's not hard for me to convince a potential client that I can easily think outside of the box and that the Patent Office has already rewarded me for doing so. Also, the sum of all allowed patent 'claims' can magnify the effect.

What is "the ingenious, inventive, private joe working 9-5" doing there in the first place? If he stays in a job that doesn't reward him for being very creative, he's a chump. To him "Patents are very, very useless" forsooth.
Anything obvious in high vacuum is probably wrong.
User avatar
Richard Hull
Moderator
Posts: 14992
Joined: Fri Jun 15, 2001 9:44 am
Real name: Richard Hull

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Richard Hull »

Your last statement was correct. Unfortunately most all of the new energy people and the like who speak of secrecy surrounding their devices due to patent issues are just the type I described. Average joes, inventive, poor, skilled of hand if not mind and often have low end jobs that keep food on the table. They, to the man, have a breakthrough device that only needs funding and can't speak of it in technical terms due to said patent issues that they hope to resolve soon. They seek the illusory protection of a patent they will never receive.

Chumps? Probably so, but most likely, self-deluded and pitiable.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
Pascal Dennerly
Posts: 46
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 3:36 am
Real name: Pascal Dennerly
Location: Nottingham, UK

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Pascal Dennerly »

I don't know if non-UK residents would find this interesting but Trevor Baylis (the back room inventor that got rich from the clockwork radio) has set up a business to help your average Joe through the patent minefield.

http://www.trevorbaylisbrands.com/tbb/h ... e.asp?A332

And it sees pretty genuine too!
MontyRoberts
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 11:52 pm
Real name:

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by MontyRoberts »

falstaff wrote:
> >
> Yes I saw the Nova program too, great show. What they got right was aircraft _control_, not just lift and propulsion. As Nova showed lotsa folks could ~ do lift and propulsion but the Wrights were way ahead in terms of control which they achieved by systematic investigation of aerodynamics and Bernoulli.
>
Sorry I missed the show. I haven't watched TV for at least 15 years. No time. I'm just an aviation buff and read a lot. Actually their control was far less than ideal. The right flyer was unstable in pitch and was very difficult to fly. The US army grounded the entire fleet of Wright flyers because of unacceptable casualty numbers.


>> So? Can you elaborate as to why patenting their concept, which required large sacrifice, effort and time, is 'wrong'? Scratch that. Please see Federalist 43.
>
There was nothing wrong with patenting the idea. The problem was they devoted a lot of resources to trying to defend something that was obsolete in about 2 year’s time, instead of putting those resources into developing better technology.

> > The patent is a legal monopoly sanctioned by the state and enforced via the courts. It has no real value otherwise and no analogy outside of the framework of the law. In other words it is simply words on a piece of paper. I would argue the concept of the patent is obsolete, so is copyright.
>
> Ah excellent!! Guys Ive got this great new song I want to distribute and sell. Goes something like:
> "You say you want a revolution
> Well you know
> We all want to change the world
> You tell me that it's evolution
> Well you know ...."
>
Go ahead, just move to China or India, or some other place where intellectual property is meaningless, and remake the song. (you need to have the talent to go with it) Sell it on the internet. You will probably make money, and nobody will bother you. If they do, there may be a small "fee" to look the other way. The “fee” will be much less than the royalties you would have to pay otherwise.

Monty
MontyRoberts
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 11:52 pm
Real name:

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by MontyRoberts »

Richard Hull wrote:
>
> Has anyone HERE, in the US, actually privately started the patent process and seen it through to the end, having patent in hand?!!
>
> What did it cost? In time? In money? In heartache?
>
I have been down this road. I think it was $10-15K for the patent. I should have spent the money on a big trip to Europe. It would have been more entertaining if less educational.

Time... a lot.

Heartache....a lot; although in the school of life some lessons cost more than others.

The product was a failure due to several factors beyond my control. This is the nature of the beast. The marketplace can change overnight. It did for my product. The patent was around 30% of the capital cost of getting the product to market if my time was free. If my time was billed at my usual rate it was much less.

I offered that patents are obsolete, not that they are useless. A lot depends on what you are trying to accomplish and how your business works. Patents are a legal barrier to entry. A way to place costs on your competitors. (You have to be in a position to afford the costs of putting cost on them)

For something like a table top fusion device, forget it.

For a massive plant, why patent anything? To patent you must disclose the technology, and then you have a limited window in which the patent is in effect. There is a huge capital cost and technical barrier to such an undertaking, why would you disclose your secrets? Why place all that capital and development at risk?

The only patents I have made money on are the ones somebody else paid me to develop.

I just have to laugh when some "inventor" approaches me with an idea he wants me to develop for a share of the "riches". What these poor deluded people don't understand is an idea (even the rare good one) is nothing more than a liability. Most of them require a lot of development time, engineering, tooling, marketing, packaging, distribution, agency approval on and on and on and on. Costs as far as the eye can see, with many chances for failure along the way. I am in the product development business. I am too poor to be a venture capitalist.

I politely tell these people that I require a substantial but reasonable retainer to bill against. That is usually the last I hear from them. This is how I separate the wheat from the chaff. If the check shows up (and clears the bank)...they know what they are doing or at least have the money to get started. Otherwise I'd rather have a root canal than deal with them. It's less painful.

A product is something that you have in your hand that somebody will purchase.

Ideas are like posteriors, everybody has one and some stink worse than others.

Are my opinions colored by my past?

YES!!

The bottom line is patents are not a playground for the monetarily challenged.

Monty
User avatar
Doug Coulter
Posts: 1312
Joined: Sun May 27, 2007 3:18 pm
Real name: Doug Coulter
Location: Floyd, VA, USA
Contact:

Re: Another Big "What If?"

Post by Doug Coulter »

Richard,
I've done a few patents not counting another few done by companies I worked for based on something I thought of. Never made a dime off one. The work isn't that hard once you understand the process, and unless you had some pretty unrealistic expectations, not much heartbreak.

The one thing I ever (jointly with my Dad) patented that had a chance to make money, we turned down a flat cash payment license for, and the company interested (AT&T) found a workaround that did the same thing anyway. The rest were mostly as vanity or documentation. No heartbreak on those, and in one case I made $87,000 for inventing it for the only company that had any use for it.

I think the scale of any working fusion device has a heck of a lot to do with it. An approach I'm working on that'd make 20kw at most due to scaling issues wouldn't be of much interest (or quite a lot of very negative, even dangerous, interest) to power companies or governments, as it wouldn't fit the "subscription model" of a big centralized plant and an automatic billing system, rather, people would own their own power sources, as I do now with my huge solar array.

But most of this thread, while true, misses a major point. I've sold "IP" for a living all my life, cash outright, no percentages, and done pretty well at it, and am now retired so I can play with fusors and suchlike at a fairly young age. I totally agree about using your invention to make money in other than the conventional way. Get that medal, make the speeches, write the book, and so forth. If you can also make money by selling the thing, so much the better.

If someome really makes a working fusor of whatever approach, they can count on Vulture Capitol to handle most of the other issues. I've worked for many startups in my consulting gig and have met plenty of these guys. The inventor still has pretty good control (as they can't do without them unless the invention is pretty trivial), but these guys, if they're any good at it, know the laws, the ways and means, and how to protect their investments pretty darn well or they wouldn't have the money they have now to invest in you. You are the expert on fusion (maybe), and do your thing, so let the experts on money do theirs, it works out better that way.

Get fusion working, the rest is a piece of cake by comparision. This from someone who has started and run two sucessful businesses along the way.
Why guess when you can know? Measure!
Post Reply

Return to “Fusion --- Past, Present, and Future”