The last days of oil

Reflections on fusion history, current events, and predictions for the 'fusion powered future.
davidtrimmell
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by davidtrimmell » Sun Jul 11, 2004 1:15 am

Hi guys, I would also like to point out that it ain't all "sea water" going in those wells to push out the last bit of the black stuff! My brother-in-law worked for ARCO for many years on their big tankers, and talked about shipping quantities of "product" up to Alaska. That product was Benzene. They were pressurizing the wells with Benzene to get that last drop. Benzene is some nice stuff too. It is probably the best solvent around, and pretty good at messing you up.

When I did some Industrial Hygiene stuff for the DOE we were taught to "assume" 5% Benzene in gasoline, actual tests showed 0.1 to 2.5%.

Regards,

David Trimmell

3l
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l » Sun Jul 11, 2004 1:37 am

Hi David:

That benzene flush is too expensive on large fields.
It just goes to show you how desprite we are for crude.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Frank Sanns
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Frank Sanns » Sun Jul 11, 2004 4:26 am

Here is a link to a site that discribes the future oil situation. http://www.hubbertpeak.com/midpoint.htm . Also click on the home page for a wealth of other info related to conventional fuels.

Frank S.

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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l » Sun Jul 11, 2004 4:43 am

Hi Frank:

The site is very good.
It has good advice and loads of the problems.
The only difference is the time line.
I posted this after what I saw on CSPAN a meeting about the stability of the Royal Saudi family.
It ran in the dead of night at 2 am in the morning.
The Hudson Institute runs the show.
Murrow is a banker by trade in the Energy investment field.
He's the one that blew the whistle on the Saudi's little con game.
The 15-20 year figures are based on misleading numbers floated by the royal family to prop up the monarchy.
The numbers out as of last week show a very short time horizon
now thanks to the oil shenanigans of the Aramco's and the royal family.
This is vital info for folks in the know.... you can maybe meet the worst with some steps. I bought a 2kw inverter to complete my system.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
Fusor Tech

davidtrimmell
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by davidtrimmell » Sun Jul 11, 2004 7:39 am

Precisely. It also shows you something about the economics of Alaska oil. Great if it is subsidized...

David Trimmell

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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey » Sun Jul 11, 2004 1:10 pm

Larry are you sure about that 15 million barrels per day world oil consumption? The US alone consumes 20 million barrels per day. According to what i found the daily consumption of the world is about 75.7 million barrels per day.
The numbers don't add up.
Even with a consumption of 15 million per year, 5 billion barrels would be gone in less then a year. With 75 million barrels per day it would be gone in two months...Something is not right there.

Here is a link showing the greatest oil reserves of the world:
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0872964.html
According to this we have oil for another 30 years total (about 835 billion barrels left according to that table, and with todays consumption of 75 Mbarrels per day).

So what is going on? I'm a bit confused here...

Adam

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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l » Sun Jul 11, 2004 3:55 pm

Hi Adam:

The revision has not been put in yet.
That figure excludes the rest of the world.
All Americans can access are American fiqures
All the major quotes will change in the next days.
That 15 million per day is the use reported by the White House.
The higher figure sounds more like it.
That fiqure is the projection of use...IE a guess at the top levels of government.
The Saudi provides the bulk of the oil.
The US gets around 70 % of the imported oil from them.
The rest of the world gets what is left.

Adam take a look at the transport cost of automobiles in my country, there is nothing like it in Europe. We don't have public transport... at all.

But you are right the figures Do not add up at all.
The dispute is not the original field estimates but rather
how much pumping has been done on them.

I pray daily that the 30 year is right, however it does not look promising when the Saudis our good buddies are hiding vital stuff from our government. Pumping was a state secret until last week!

The point is that None in the government has a real clue.
The estimates are nothing more than wishfull thinking.
It is frightening to be a thinking person here.
I don't want to be chicken little but my rose collored are in the shop.
The American engineers that maintain and develope those numbers on world wide oil now have doubts.
For years now ,the politicians has been able to shop for the best numbers. The nintendo geologists would simulate not actually measure the field.

It could be 10 years or ten minutes...this is a civilization shaking
moment... do we just avert our eyes?

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey » Sun Jul 11, 2004 4:20 pm

Hi Larry

The white house announced that 15 million / day for the US only right? Though they cheat about five million. But i'm sure they would not say 50 million less.
So that 2003 data, of 830 billion barrels is actually a guess? It says on the site "can be extracted with present technologies and prices" and also says "prooven". Though i'm not sure what they mean by prooven.
But it seems unlikely that there is about 800 billion barrels less....
Even with the 15 Mb/day data 5000 days would mean 75 billion barrels, taking into account that the actual consumption is 75 Mb/day , 5000 days would mean 375 billion barrels...
So i don't know what to believe...the time left, the number of barrels left, or the amount of actual consumption....
I tend to believe that that 75 Mb/day is an accurate data, as it can be measured.
Now i would just want to know, how much oil is left actually.

That 830 billion barrels worldwide is 2003 data (i assume you looked at that website). IF that is true, then the info from hudson (whatever source they have) is false.
20-30 years seems much more probable then...i just don't know what data to believe.
But if in that report that you have shared they made such a big mistake as saying that the consumption is 15 Mb/day (i still don't know if they meant world or US consumption, but in both cases that data is false)...

Adam

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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l » Sun Jul 11, 2004 4:35 pm

Hi Adam:

Do you like Coke or Pepsi?
Now you understand the problem that's been ruining my sleep lately. How can something so vital depend on such sloppy crud?
This stuff is so political and has so much impact, it is hard to take any of the data at face value.
Each group with time and money can present any point of view in data thanks to computers.
I am curious to see how this will shake out.
I'm sure they can paint a happy face on this somehow especially during election season.
I used to believe government reporting until this political spinning stuff set in.
Our government is running scared from a real boogieman....sloppy accounting ENRON style.
The proceedures were so bad they are mendeval in the scale of the screw up.
They simply stacked the production figures in a closet and never accounted for it.
In the 50's the Ghwar had rivers of oil so why bother with accounting? We aren't even sure of the figures on the paper!
In the oil companies the word "proven" is thrown around like candy...it should read in the best guess of our esteemed witchdoctors is there could be oil.

The choice is to decide to do nothing because I have a feeling that there is an acre of diamonds out back.

Crazy Huh?


Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey » Sun Jul 11, 2004 8:42 pm

Yeah, crazy...to me the fact that the oil prices are rising, is enough. it is a sing, that we can all see, and feel.
Here in Europe, they wroked out a plan to slowly disassemlbe the oil industry.
Here is their planned schedule:

2010: Wide scale production of hydrogen cars, hydrogen filling stations, that are not yet ina common system, and get hydrogan by trucks.
2020: Hydrogen cars for the same price, and with the same capabilities as conventional cars.
Connecting the filling stations into a network.
2030: Wide spread hydrogen pipe system
2040: Fuel cells, and hydrogen motors are now widely used , and become the dominant technology in transportation.
2050: Hydrogen powered airplanes

Thats what they are planning....they should hurry up a bit with those plans.

This is definetly the end of the oil age (the beggining of the end) and the dawn of the hydrogen age.

Adam

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