The last days of oil

Reflections on fusion history, current events, and predictions for the 'fusion powered future.
davidtrimmell
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by davidtrimmell »

Hi guys, I would also like to point out that it ain't all "sea water" going in those wells to push out the last bit of the black stuff! My brother-in-law worked for ARCO for many years on their big tankers, and talked about shipping quantities of "product" up to Alaska. That product was Benzene. They were pressurizing the wells with Benzene to get that last drop. Benzene is some nice stuff too. It is probably the best solvent around, and pretty good at messing you up.

When I did some Industrial Hygiene stuff for the DOE we were taught to "assume" 5% Benzene in gasoline, actual tests showed 0.1 to 2.5%.

Regards,

David Trimmell
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi David:

That benzene flush is too expensive on large fields.
It just goes to show you how desprite we are for crude.

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Larry Leins
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Frank Sanns »

Here is a link to a site that discribes the future oil situation. http://www.hubbertpeak.com/midpoint.htm . Also click on the home page for a wealth of other info related to conventional fuels.

Frank S.
Achiever's madness; when enough is still not enough. ---FS
We have to stop looking at the world through our physical eyes. The universe is NOT what we see. It is the quantum world that is real. The rest is just an electron illusion. ---FS
3l
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Frank:

The site is very good.
It has good advice and loads of the problems.
The only difference is the time line.
I posted this after what I saw on CSPAN a meeting about the stability of the Royal Saudi family.
It ran in the dead of night at 2 am in the morning.
The Hudson Institute runs the show.
Murrow is a banker by trade in the Energy investment field.
He's the one that blew the whistle on the Saudi's little con game.
The 15-20 year figures are based on misleading numbers floated by the royal family to prop up the monarchy.
The numbers out as of last week show a very short time horizon
now thanks to the oil shenanigans of the Aramco's and the royal family.
This is vital info for folks in the know.... you can maybe meet the worst with some steps. I bought a 2kw inverter to complete my system.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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davidtrimmell
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by davidtrimmell »

Precisely. It also shows you something about the economics of Alaska oil. Great if it is subsidized...

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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

Larry are you sure about that 15 million barrels per day world oil consumption? The US alone consumes 20 million barrels per day. According to what i found the daily consumption of the world is about 75.7 million barrels per day.
The numbers don't add up.
Even with a consumption of 15 million per year, 5 billion barrels would be gone in less then a year. With 75 million barrels per day it would be gone in two months...Something is not right there.

Here is a link showing the greatest oil reserves of the world:
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0872964.html
According to this we have oil for another 30 years total (about 835 billion barrels left according to that table, and with todays consumption of 75 Mbarrels per day).

So what is going on? I'm a bit confused here...

Adam
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Adam:

The revision has not been put in yet.
That figure excludes the rest of the world.
All Americans can access are American fiqures
All the major quotes will change in the next days.
That 15 million per day is the use reported by the White House.
The higher figure sounds more like it.
That fiqure is the projection of use...IE a guess at the top levels of government.
The Saudi provides the bulk of the oil.
The US gets around 70 % of the imported oil from them.
The rest of the world gets what is left.

Adam take a look at the transport cost of automobiles in my country, there is nothing like it in Europe. We don't have public transport... at all.

But you are right the figures Do not add up at all.
The dispute is not the original field estimates but rather
how much pumping has been done on them.

I pray daily that the 30 year is right, however it does not look promising when the Saudis our good buddies are hiding vital stuff from our government. Pumping was a state secret until last week!

The point is that None in the government has a real clue.
The estimates are nothing more than wishfull thinking.
It is frightening to be a thinking person here.
I don't want to be chicken little but my rose collored are in the shop.
The American engineers that maintain and develope those numbers on world wide oil now have doubts.
For years now ,the politicians has been able to shop for the best numbers. The nintendo geologists would simulate not actually measure the field.

It could be 10 years or ten minutes...this is a civilization shaking
moment... do we just avert our eyes?

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

Hi Larry

The white house announced that 15 million / day for the US only right? Though they cheat about five million. But i'm sure they would not say 50 million less.
So that 2003 data, of 830 billion barrels is actually a guess? It says on the site "can be extracted with present technologies and prices" and also says "prooven". Though i'm not sure what they mean by prooven.
But it seems unlikely that there is about 800 billion barrels less....
Even with the 15 Mb/day data 5000 days would mean 75 billion barrels, taking into account that the actual consumption is 75 Mb/day , 5000 days would mean 375 billion barrels...
So i don't know what to believe...the time left, the number of barrels left, or the amount of actual consumption....
I tend to believe that that 75 Mb/day is an accurate data, as it can be measured.
Now i would just want to know, how much oil is left actually.

That 830 billion barrels worldwide is 2003 data (i assume you looked at that website). IF that is true, then the info from hudson (whatever source they have) is false.
20-30 years seems much more probable then...i just don't know what data to believe.
But if in that report that you have shared they made such a big mistake as saying that the consumption is 15 Mb/day (i still don't know if they meant world or US consumption, but in both cases that data is false)...

Adam
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Adam:

Do you like Coke or Pepsi?
Now you understand the problem that's been ruining my sleep lately. How can something so vital depend on such sloppy crud?
This stuff is so political and has so much impact, it is hard to take any of the data at face value.
Each group with time and money can present any point of view in data thanks to computers.
I am curious to see how this will shake out.
I'm sure they can paint a happy face on this somehow especially during election season.
I used to believe government reporting until this political spinning stuff set in.
Our government is running scared from a real boogieman....sloppy accounting ENRON style.
The proceedures were so bad they are mendeval in the scale of the screw up.
They simply stacked the production figures in a closet and never accounted for it.
In the 50's the Ghwar had rivers of oil so why bother with accounting? We aren't even sure of the figures on the paper!
In the oil companies the word "proven" is thrown around like candy...it should read in the best guess of our esteemed witchdoctors is there could be oil.

The choice is to decide to do nothing because I have a feeling that there is an acre of diamonds out back.

Crazy Huh?


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Larry Leins
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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

Yeah, crazy...to me the fact that the oil prices are rising, is enough. it is a sing, that we can all see, and feel.
Here in Europe, they wroked out a plan to slowly disassemlbe the oil industry.
Here is their planned schedule:

2010: Wide scale production of hydrogen cars, hydrogen filling stations, that are not yet ina common system, and get hydrogan by trucks.
2020: Hydrogen cars for the same price, and with the same capabilities as conventional cars.
Connecting the filling stations into a network.
2030: Wide spread hydrogen pipe system
2040: Fuel cells, and hydrogen motors are now widely used , and become the dominant technology in transportation.
2050: Hydrogen powered airplanes

Thats what they are planning....they should hurry up a bit with those plans.

This is definetly the end of the oil age (the beggining of the end) and the dawn of the hydrogen age.

Adam
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Frank Sanns »

The good news is that the reserves will last many more years into the future. The problem is that consumption is growing at a rate that will exceed oil production some time within the next decade. All the world will be forced to conserve to reduce consumption but we will not run out on that particular day. Sure it will be tougher but if everybody at that point used 10% less fuel then we would all be fine for another couple of years at which point we would have to conserve 20% and then 30% and ...... You get the idea. We will not just wake up one day and there not be oil. It will just get pricey and hard to come by more and more. It will be relatively gradual even though when it first starts, there will be panic. That is just the ways folks are.

Frank S.
Achiever's madness; when enough is still not enough. ---FS
We have to stop looking at the world through our physical eyes. The universe is NOT what we see. It is the quantum world that is real. The rest is just an electron illusion. ---FS
davidtrimmell
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by davidtrimmell »

Ok. My take. We have at least 30+ years oil supply even with China and India. BUT and big BUT, the cost is going to skyrocket! Reserves are in the Artic and Antarctic with very high costs to market. Demand will eventually slow with further evidence of anthropogenic Global climate change and insurance companies loosing big time. Factors whirling fast in the chaos of time. We will see (are seeing) great advancements in efficiency of electronics. Ethyl and Methyl Alcohols, along with Biodiesel will become price competitive and with the closed loop carbon cycle, will be environmentally sound. Efficiency is the name of the game. These hairless Apes will keep pushing forward; I only hope it is to a world respectful of all life.

Regards,

David Trimmell
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Richard Hull
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Richard Hull »

Frank and Dave have it right.

The oil will price itself out of all reason. We will never use the last drop... or get close to it.

In 2090 gasoline will be a chemical commonly available from Alfa-Aesar. in 500ml lab bottles for $41.50 or a 4 pack of 1 liter bottles for $200.00.

Oil will just leave the scene due to simple economics and not due to using it all up. Yes, there will be panic and yes, there will be oil wars international and civil, but it will all shake out and we will be on something else.

I may not live to see the light at the end of the tunnel though. (>40 years) I might make it to the first of the darkest days, (~20 years). OR..... the whole thing might be made moot by some super source of unappreciated energy. (not likely)

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
3l
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Guys:

You guys imply that they had a coherent plan.
I can assure you they do not have one.
Richard's scenario is the best one.
But it depends on rational restraint at the end.
We shall see if Alpha Aesar will get to list gasoline at those prices.
I'll bet they will come in 1ml vials at 100 bucks each.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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ChrisSmolinski
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by ChrisSmolinski »

I saw the latest copy of National Geographic at a relatives house last week,
the cover article was screaming that we're running out of oil for sure this time.
Really, honest, this time we mean it. Yawn.

It's simple economics. Every subsititute for fossil fuels at this point is an also-
ran because fossil fuels are so cheap. Even at $1.80 a gallon, gas today is a
bargain compared to where it was a decade ago, especially taking inflation
into account.

Only when the price point of oil and coal reach a high enough point, will other
energy sources become viable. This won't happen until the demand/supply
ratio gets high enough. As this starts to happen, and the price of oil starts to
rise, previously un-economical sources will be tapped, keeping the supply
available, for those willing to pay the price anyway. And exploration will
continue to find new deposits.

My gut feeling is that it will take oil reaching a sustained price of around $50 a
barrel before other other energy sources start to be seriously investigated.
Sustained. Not these short term blips. The Saudis and the rest of OPEC want
to keep oil in the $30-$35 range. Remember, their goal is to maximize profit.
(Of course OPEC is a den of thieves and they all cheat on their quotas, but
that is another story) Ideally they want to be able to pump that last barrel of oil
out and sell it. If the price goes to $50 a barrel too soon, other energy sources
become attractive. Worse for OPEC, once there is a serious effort made to
develop other sources and start volume production, they become even less
expensive, once the R&D is amortized and factories are churning out millions
of the necessary widgets (whatever they are). So oil has to come *down* in
price to become competitive once other sources are in use.

Personally, I don't think there's a silver bullet - that is, one solution. Well, I do
think it's fission, but the politics make that impossible at the moment (Oil at
$50 a barrel and gas at $3 a gallon can change politics of course). I think
there's a whole host of answers, each playing a small part. Better design of
homes to take advantage of solar heating in the winter, and preventing it in
the summer. Solar cells, once the price per kWhr comes down by an order of
magnitude. Or two. Serious use of hydro power, we're nuts for letting all that
water go over Niagra Falls. Wind turbines are nifty, if for no other reason than
for letting the greenies show their true colors, since they've opposed virtually
every suggested deployment of them. And there's the obvious issue with
automobiles, somehow convincing the public that they do not need to drive a
vehicle that looks like (and gets the milage of) a Sherman tank. I don't like the
idea of changing personal habits through oppressive taxation, but a
nationwide automobile tax inversely proportional to the MPG of the car could
be interesting. Just as long as you punish the SUV driving yuppie, and not
the housewife with 4 kids who has a legitimate need for a large vehicle.

I think, in the end, it will be much as Richard has suggested. There will be
spurts of panic as the price of crude jumps upwards, resulting in spurts of
R&D and serious investigation of other energy sources. The private sector is
probably best equipped to deal with it anyway. Would you really want new
energy source development to be run by the same clowns as fusion, and
public housing for that matter?
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Richard Hull
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Richard Hull »

I truly believe people will get used to and still transport themselves regularly on $22.00/gallon gas with not too much thought about it. What will happen at that time will be super efficient two cylinder, single or two seater cars of low mass and high MPG ratings.

The SUVs and even the small hondas and toyotas of today will be chicken coops and storage sheds at that time. Public urban and interurban transport will return, big time, and be all electric (hello Mr. Street car and mr. subway). The energy for these will come from, hopefully, mostly nuclear plants, but coal has a bright 300-400 year future. Private transport will be reserved for important long trips/vacations or small daily bouces around the city. Internal combustion will still be here in 2100, but just not as we have it today.

SUV's are feeling the crunch already and the last spate of gas hikes sent would be SUV buyers to the honda accord dealerships. Every SUV is discounted now! Unfortunately most folks have an SUV as a third or fourth vehicle in the US and can handily afford $3.00/gallon gas even at 10mpg. (minor grumbles).

Until gas prices/unit mpg in normal vehicles impacts normal drivers over a protracted period, all we remain OK. By this time the SUV market will have collapsed into "that turn of the century folly". Auto makers will have already started a line of two cylinder, city car, puddle jumpers. (6 speed, 45mph top end and 50mpg city, weight 305 lbs.)

Heating issues might actually reduce the sizes of living spaces/rooms/homes and or centralize family activies to a single decent sized room with very small sleeping quarters to conserve electrical energy, especially if coal becomes king again for electrical generation.

There are lots of ways to economize and become more efficient, but a lot that people hold dear today and demand as a sign of "having arrived" will go the way of the dodo bird.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Frank Sanns »

But here still again the auto makers have missed the market. The high mile per gallon vehicles are tin cans that have poor performance. It need not be this way. I drive a 2 wheel version of such a vehicle that you describe but it is a bit heavier at 470 lbs. (216 Kg). It has a 1,300 cc, 4 cylinder, fuel injected, 175 HP engine with 102 ft/lbs of torque that will propell it through the quarter mile (0.40 km) in 9.5 seconds at 148 MPH (238 km/hr.). Given a few more seconds, it will top out at over 205+ MPH (330 km/hr.). It is a factory stock, ultra quiet, ultra smooth, joy to drive, Suzuki Hayabusa. Even with my frequent 1.2 g acceleration pull outs and pushing through the turns as fast as any sports car can go, I still get 40 mpg. If such technology exists for motorcycles, then why not make 1,000 lb. cars with similar engines. It would still be ultra high performance with great gas mileage. Guess either the motivation to do such a thing is not there by the consumer or by the auto makers. Why does there have to be such drastic tradeoffs???

Frank S.



>Richard Hull wrote:

>By this time the SUV market will have collapsed into "that turn of the century folly". Auto makers will have already started a line of two cylinder, city car, puddle jumpers. (6 speed, 45mph top end and 50mpg city, weight 305 lbs.)
>
> Richard Hull
Achiever's madness; when enough is still not enough. ---FS
We have to stop looking at the world through our physical eyes. The universe is NOT what we see. It is the quantum world that is real. The rest is just an electron illusion. ---FS
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by ChrisSmolinski »

I think most of the "blame" needs to go to the consumer. The car makers build
what the public wants to buy. Right now, much of the public want to buy huge,
heavy, massive SUVs and their ilk. Lots of psyochological motives (ego, etc)
at work here, with attempts to justify ("I need a big SUV so I will survive when
I get hit by someone else's big SUV"). It's a trend that will eventually end,
perhaps long before gas prices ratchet up another notch. Personally I drive
small cars (Neon and a Miata) because I prefer them, I don't like having to
worry about where the bounds of my car are in a lane/parking space. Plus
they're old and paid for, one can be in the shop for minor work while I drive
the other. And you can have a lot of minor work done for the cost of a monthly
car payment. But to each his own.

If there is sufficient demand for fuel efficient cars, they will build them.
Frankly, I'd like to see diesel make a come-back in the USA.
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Alex Aitken »

Biofuel depends on planting vast quantities of crops and having them harvested and processed cheeply. I have my doubts this can fufill the need for fuel.

Petrol, ie gasoline may well increase in price but in europe we pay a lot more than is usual in the US. Roughly 10% of the cost of gasoline goes higher up in the supply chain, 10% goes to the gas station and around 80% goes directly to the goverment in tax.

If oil becomes too expensive (is running out) fuel for cars can be made from coal via hydrogenation processes that are decades old but couldn't compete with oil at the time.

Hydrogen cant be stored well at all and fatigues metals badly. While it has the advantage of being billed as 'produces only water' unless you carry round pure oxygen vehicles will typically be producing dilute nitric acid as exhaust. It also has the disadvantage of turning a form of transport into a mobile bomb. Airline fuels are vary carfully regulated in terms of flash point and explosion limits, hydrogen is the worst possible fuel under those constraints.

I'm more interested in the effects on the chemical industry, which is almost entirly based on ultracheep feedstocks like oil to produce cheep materials like plastics. Plastic may actually become an expensive item, disposable carrier bags may end up museum items and plastic furniture may even become expensive enough to be fashionable. It'll be the 60's all over again.
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by davidtrimmell »

Marvin wrote:

"I'm more interested in the effects on the chemical industry, which is almost entirly based on ultracheep feedstocks like oil to produce cheep materials like plastics. Plastic may actually become an expensive item, disposable carrier bags may end up museum items and plastic furniture may even become expensive enough to be fashionable. It'll be the 60's all over again."

Precisely! I have always believed that petroleum is much too valuable to burn. But it is going to be difficult to outright replace, but it will be... And there really is no reason why we do not have more fuel efficient vehicles; it is not a technological hurdle, just one of economics. The petrol industry is looking at volume of sale, and the chemical industry will never compete with the internal combustion engine regarding consumption. And anyway this CO2 thing is really not that great, all species’ will eventually become extinct, why should we be different? Only quality of life is really at issue, isn't it?

David Trimmell
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by AnGuy »

First off, It looks like we are indeed headed for a oil crisis. I've been reading many articles about depletion in Saudi Arabia, and some of the other Middle east states (such as Iraq). As Larry said, All of the oil produces have over estimated their proven reserves.
The largests fields are approaching depletion. We also have rapid production declines in the North Sea fields and Alaska. We may already have breached Hubbert's Peak.

Unfortunately, America is completely unprepared. Americans are driving SUVs and other low milage vehicles, More than half of US Electrical production is provided by NGAS and Oil to meet clean air regulations. However countries like Russia and China are building hundred of new Coal and Nuclear plants. Perhaps Iran really needs to start building Nuclear plants to meet future energy demand.

Because the politicians refuse to discuss this (its virtually a taboo, just like Social Security reform). We will face huge energy shortages. Rolling blackouts and fuel rationing will no longer be the realm of third world nations. The US has a terrible public transportation and 99% of homes are heated using either NGAS or oil. Whats going to happen to home prices if no can afford to heat them?

Secondly, Alternative energy solutions are simple a waste of money. Ethanol,Methanol, and Biodiesel are energy losers. Meaning it takes more energy to distill/refine them, then they create when consumed. Currently Alcohol is distilled using heating oil. (I suppose coal could be used as a replacement heat source.) But it highly unlikely it will make economic sense to manufacture alternative fuels and it would be extremely difficult to meet current demand.

Solar cell also require more energy then the produce. It takes huge amounts of energy to smelt and refine sillicon for solar cell prodution. Assuming a solar cell operation life of 15 to 20 years, it takes more energy to produce them, then the cells will deliver for their entire life span.

What I see in the near term solution is to ramp up in low-gravity oil production (such as oil from shale and tar sands). By current estimates, 285 billion bbls can be recovered from the Canadian tar sand fields using existing technologies. However the global pruduction from tar sands is less than 500,000 bbls PER YEAR.. The US along uses 8 million bbl per day! However, its going to take time to ramp up production. If tommorow the ghawar field is breached with sea water (ie it becomes depleted), we wouldn't be able to close the production gap for years!
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi AG:

It is a problem that just won't go away.
I guess the next thing is that old Joules Verne gizmo .
Use the temperature gradiants in the ocean to make electricity.
Nuclear is the only solution even close at this point.
Solar needs years more developement.
A mind blowing developement is the fact that GE wants to move the turbine division to Japan.
They site no new major orders in four years in the US.
My question is why is this country sitting on it's hands?

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Frank Sanns »

Why don't we technical people unite? Why not pick the top 3 problems facing this country and find technical solutions. Circulate what we find to other top technical circles and forward the results to the top. Maybe it would get lost in acedemia or would be ignored at the top but if we sit around and just talk about it, then we have not helped to make the change either.

Frank S.
Achiever's madness; when enough is still not enough. ---FS
We have to stop looking at the world through our physical eyes. The universe is NOT what we see. It is the quantum world that is real. The rest is just an electron illusion. ---FS
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Frank:

That is why we are here.
The internet will spread the work near and far.
I think the group has hit many topics here from nuclear powered stuff to low tech and everything in between.
College students Google us to tramp on the new stuff in search of paper materials.
We are living proof to anyone that will read about us that the people are not mindless little dweebes as some folks picture us.
Collectively we are working on large aspects of the future right now. We are not the ones with our tail in the air and head in the sands. The group is proceeding to a goal that is far off but necessary.
As I have done fusion many skills have been learned ,much research in the energy field has been done.
Loads of instruments and apparatus get build on a day to day basis by many folks here.
I share many of the construction tips on line.
Some unexpected but neat solutions have shown up.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

I wonder if there is an efficient solar cell technology out there...
I once read about 75 % efficient panels, but i guess that was just a boo-boo.
Wind turbines are good stuff...where there is enough wind...I would hate to see coal making a major come back (well it was never gone really), but i guess i will have to live with it.
I bet there is some new technology that already exist, but is top secret...it has always been this way. I just wonder where the real logic in that is.

Adam
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