The last days of oil

Reflections on fusion history, current events, and predictions for the 'fusion powered future.
Frank Sanns
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Frank Sanns »

The good news is that the reserves will last many more years into the future. The problem is that consumption is growing at a rate that will exceed oil production some time within the next decade. All the world will be forced to conserve to reduce consumption but we will not run out on that particular day. Sure it will be tougher but if everybody at that point used 10% less fuel then we would all be fine for another couple of years at which point we would have to conserve 20% and then 30% and ...... You get the idea. We will not just wake up one day and there not be oil. It will just get pricey and hard to come by more and more. It will be relatively gradual even though when it first starts, there will be panic. That is just the ways folks are.

Frank S.
Achiever's madness; when enough is still not enough. ---FS
We have to stop looking at the world through our physical eyes. The universe is NOT what we see. It is the quantum world that is real. The rest is just an electron illusion. ---FS
davidtrimmell
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by davidtrimmell »

Ok. My take. We have at least 30+ years oil supply even with China and India. BUT and big BUT, the cost is going to skyrocket! Reserves are in the Artic and Antarctic with very high costs to market. Demand will eventually slow with further evidence of anthropogenic Global climate change and insurance companies loosing big time. Factors whirling fast in the chaos of time. We will see (are seeing) great advancements in efficiency of electronics. Ethyl and Methyl Alcohols, along with Biodiesel will become price competitive and with the closed loop carbon cycle, will be environmentally sound. Efficiency is the name of the game. These hairless Apes will keep pushing forward; I only hope it is to a world respectful of all life.

Regards,

David Trimmell
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Richard Hull
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Richard Hull »

Frank and Dave have it right.

The oil will price itself out of all reason. We will never use the last drop... or get close to it.

In 2090 gasoline will be a chemical commonly available from Alfa-Aesar. in 500ml lab bottles for $41.50 or a 4 pack of 1 liter bottles for $200.00.

Oil will just leave the scene due to simple economics and not due to using it all up. Yes, there will be panic and yes, there will be oil wars international and civil, but it will all shake out and we will be on something else.

I may not live to see the light at the end of the tunnel though. (>40 years) I might make it to the first of the darkest days, (~20 years). OR..... the whole thing might be made moot by some super source of unappreciated energy. (not likely)

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
3l
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Guys:

You guys imply that they had a coherent plan.
I can assure you they do not have one.
Richard's scenario is the best one.
But it depends on rational restraint at the end.
We shall see if Alpha Aesar will get to list gasoline at those prices.
I'll bet they will come in 1ml vials at 100 bucks each.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by ChrisSmolinski »

I saw the latest copy of National Geographic at a relatives house last week,
the cover article was screaming that we're running out of oil for sure this time.
Really, honest, this time we mean it. Yawn.

It's simple economics. Every subsititute for fossil fuels at this point is an also-
ran because fossil fuels are so cheap. Even at $1.80 a gallon, gas today is a
bargain compared to where it was a decade ago, especially taking inflation
into account.

Only when the price point of oil and coal reach a high enough point, will other
energy sources become viable. This won't happen until the demand/supply
ratio gets high enough. As this starts to happen, and the price of oil starts to
rise, previously un-economical sources will be tapped, keeping the supply
available, for those willing to pay the price anyway. And exploration will
continue to find new deposits.

My gut feeling is that it will take oil reaching a sustained price of around $50 a
barrel before other other energy sources start to be seriously investigated.
Sustained. Not these short term blips. The Saudis and the rest of OPEC want
to keep oil in the $30-$35 range. Remember, their goal is to maximize profit.
(Of course OPEC is a den of thieves and they all cheat on their quotas, but
that is another story) Ideally they want to be able to pump that last barrel of oil
out and sell it. If the price goes to $50 a barrel too soon, other energy sources
become attractive. Worse for OPEC, once there is a serious effort made to
develop other sources and start volume production, they become even less
expensive, once the R&D is amortized and factories are churning out millions
of the necessary widgets (whatever they are). So oil has to come *down* in
price to become competitive once other sources are in use.

Personally, I don't think there's a silver bullet - that is, one solution. Well, I do
think it's fission, but the politics make that impossible at the moment (Oil at
$50 a barrel and gas at $3 a gallon can change politics of course). I think
there's a whole host of answers, each playing a small part. Better design of
homes to take advantage of solar heating in the winter, and preventing it in
the summer. Solar cells, once the price per kWhr comes down by an order of
magnitude. Or two. Serious use of hydro power, we're nuts for letting all that
water go over Niagra Falls. Wind turbines are nifty, if for no other reason than
for letting the greenies show their true colors, since they've opposed virtually
every suggested deployment of them. And there's the obvious issue with
automobiles, somehow convincing the public that they do not need to drive a
vehicle that looks like (and gets the milage of) a Sherman tank. I don't like the
idea of changing personal habits through oppressive taxation, but a
nationwide automobile tax inversely proportional to the MPG of the car could
be interesting. Just as long as you punish the SUV driving yuppie, and not
the housewife with 4 kids who has a legitimate need for a large vehicle.

I think, in the end, it will be much as Richard has suggested. There will be
spurts of panic as the price of crude jumps upwards, resulting in spurts of
R&D and serious investigation of other energy sources. The private sector is
probably best equipped to deal with it anyway. Would you really want new
energy source development to be run by the same clowns as fusion, and
public housing for that matter?
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Richard Hull
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Richard Hull »

I truly believe people will get used to and still transport themselves regularly on $22.00/gallon gas with not too much thought about it. What will happen at that time will be super efficient two cylinder, single or two seater cars of low mass and high MPG ratings.

The SUVs and even the small hondas and toyotas of today will be chicken coops and storage sheds at that time. Public urban and interurban transport will return, big time, and be all electric (hello Mr. Street car and mr. subway). The energy for these will come from, hopefully, mostly nuclear plants, but coal has a bright 300-400 year future. Private transport will be reserved for important long trips/vacations or small daily bouces around the city. Internal combustion will still be here in 2100, but just not as we have it today.

SUV's are feeling the crunch already and the last spate of gas hikes sent would be SUV buyers to the honda accord dealerships. Every SUV is discounted now! Unfortunately most folks have an SUV as a third or fourth vehicle in the US and can handily afford $3.00/gallon gas even at 10mpg. (minor grumbles).

Until gas prices/unit mpg in normal vehicles impacts normal drivers over a protracted period, all we remain OK. By this time the SUV market will have collapsed into "that turn of the century folly". Auto makers will have already started a line of two cylinder, city car, puddle jumpers. (6 speed, 45mph top end and 50mpg city, weight 305 lbs.)

Heating issues might actually reduce the sizes of living spaces/rooms/homes and or centralize family activies to a single decent sized room with very small sleeping quarters to conserve electrical energy, especially if coal becomes king again for electrical generation.

There are lots of ways to economize and become more efficient, but a lot that people hold dear today and demand as a sign of "having arrived" will go the way of the dodo bird.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Frank Sanns »

But here still again the auto makers have missed the market. The high mile per gallon vehicles are tin cans that have poor performance. It need not be this way. I drive a 2 wheel version of such a vehicle that you describe but it is a bit heavier at 470 lbs. (216 Kg). It has a 1,300 cc, 4 cylinder, fuel injected, 175 HP engine with 102 ft/lbs of torque that will propell it through the quarter mile (0.40 km) in 9.5 seconds at 148 MPH (238 km/hr.). Given a few more seconds, it will top out at over 205+ MPH (330 km/hr.). It is a factory stock, ultra quiet, ultra smooth, joy to drive, Suzuki Hayabusa. Even with my frequent 1.2 g acceleration pull outs and pushing through the turns as fast as any sports car can go, I still get 40 mpg. If such technology exists for motorcycles, then why not make 1,000 lb. cars with similar engines. It would still be ultra high performance with great gas mileage. Guess either the motivation to do such a thing is not there by the consumer or by the auto makers. Why does there have to be such drastic tradeoffs???

Frank S.



>Richard Hull wrote:

>By this time the SUV market will have collapsed into "that turn of the century folly". Auto makers will have already started a line of two cylinder, city car, puddle jumpers. (6 speed, 45mph top end and 50mpg city, weight 305 lbs.)
>
> Richard Hull
Achiever's madness; when enough is still not enough. ---FS
We have to stop looking at the world through our physical eyes. The universe is NOT what we see. It is the quantum world that is real. The rest is just an electron illusion. ---FS
ChrisSmolinski
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by ChrisSmolinski »

I think most of the "blame" needs to go to the consumer. The car makers build
what the public wants to buy. Right now, much of the public want to buy huge,
heavy, massive SUVs and their ilk. Lots of psyochological motives (ego, etc)
at work here, with attempts to justify ("I need a big SUV so I will survive when
I get hit by someone else's big SUV"). It's a trend that will eventually end,
perhaps long before gas prices ratchet up another notch. Personally I drive
small cars (Neon and a Miata) because I prefer them, I don't like having to
worry about where the bounds of my car are in a lane/parking space. Plus
they're old and paid for, one can be in the shop for minor work while I drive
the other. And you can have a lot of minor work done for the cost of a monthly
car payment. But to each his own.

If there is sufficient demand for fuel efficient cars, they will build them.
Frankly, I'd like to see diesel make a come-back in the USA.
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Alex Aitken »

Biofuel depends on planting vast quantities of crops and having them harvested and processed cheeply. I have my doubts this can fufill the need for fuel.

Petrol, ie gasoline may well increase in price but in europe we pay a lot more than is usual in the US. Roughly 10% of the cost of gasoline goes higher up in the supply chain, 10% goes to the gas station and around 80% goes directly to the goverment in tax.

If oil becomes too expensive (is running out) fuel for cars can be made from coal via hydrogenation processes that are decades old but couldn't compete with oil at the time.

Hydrogen cant be stored well at all and fatigues metals badly. While it has the advantage of being billed as 'produces only water' unless you carry round pure oxygen vehicles will typically be producing dilute nitric acid as exhaust. It also has the disadvantage of turning a form of transport into a mobile bomb. Airline fuels are vary carfully regulated in terms of flash point and explosion limits, hydrogen is the worst possible fuel under those constraints.

I'm more interested in the effects on the chemical industry, which is almost entirly based on ultracheep feedstocks like oil to produce cheep materials like plastics. Plastic may actually become an expensive item, disposable carrier bags may end up museum items and plastic furniture may even become expensive enough to be fashionable. It'll be the 60's all over again.
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by davidtrimmell »

Marvin wrote:

"I'm more interested in the effects on the chemical industry, which is almost entirly based on ultracheep feedstocks like oil to produce cheep materials like plastics. Plastic may actually become an expensive item, disposable carrier bags may end up museum items and plastic furniture may even become expensive enough to be fashionable. It'll be the 60's all over again."

Precisely! I have always believed that petroleum is much too valuable to burn. But it is going to be difficult to outright replace, but it will be... And there really is no reason why we do not have more fuel efficient vehicles; it is not a technological hurdle, just one of economics. The petrol industry is looking at volume of sale, and the chemical industry will never compete with the internal combustion engine regarding consumption. And anyway this CO2 thing is really not that great, all species’ will eventually become extinct, why should we be different? Only quality of life is really at issue, isn't it?

David Trimmell
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by AnGuy »

First off, It looks like we are indeed headed for a oil crisis. I've been reading many articles about depletion in Saudi Arabia, and some of the other Middle east states (such as Iraq). As Larry said, All of the oil produces have over estimated their proven reserves.
The largests fields are approaching depletion. We also have rapid production declines in the North Sea fields and Alaska. We may already have breached Hubbert's Peak.

Unfortunately, America is completely unprepared. Americans are driving SUVs and other low milage vehicles, More than half of US Electrical production is provided by NGAS and Oil to meet clean air regulations. However countries like Russia and China are building hundred of new Coal and Nuclear plants. Perhaps Iran really needs to start building Nuclear plants to meet future energy demand.

Because the politicians refuse to discuss this (its virtually a taboo, just like Social Security reform). We will face huge energy shortages. Rolling blackouts and fuel rationing will no longer be the realm of third world nations. The US has a terrible public transportation and 99% of homes are heated using either NGAS or oil. Whats going to happen to home prices if no can afford to heat them?

Secondly, Alternative energy solutions are simple a waste of money. Ethanol,Methanol, and Biodiesel are energy losers. Meaning it takes more energy to distill/refine them, then they create when consumed. Currently Alcohol is distilled using heating oil. (I suppose coal could be used as a replacement heat source.) But it highly unlikely it will make economic sense to manufacture alternative fuels and it would be extremely difficult to meet current demand.

Solar cell also require more energy then the produce. It takes huge amounts of energy to smelt and refine sillicon for solar cell prodution. Assuming a solar cell operation life of 15 to 20 years, it takes more energy to produce them, then the cells will deliver for their entire life span.

What I see in the near term solution is to ramp up in low-gravity oil production (such as oil from shale and tar sands). By current estimates, 285 billion bbls can be recovered from the Canadian tar sand fields using existing technologies. However the global pruduction from tar sands is less than 500,000 bbls PER YEAR.. The US along uses 8 million bbl per day! However, its going to take time to ramp up production. If tommorow the ghawar field is breached with sea water (ie it becomes depleted), we wouldn't be able to close the production gap for years!
3l
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi AG:

It is a problem that just won't go away.
I guess the next thing is that old Joules Verne gizmo .
Use the temperature gradiants in the ocean to make electricity.
Nuclear is the only solution even close at this point.
Solar needs years more developement.
A mind blowing developement is the fact that GE wants to move the turbine division to Japan.
They site no new major orders in four years in the US.
My question is why is this country sitting on it's hands?

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Frank Sanns »

Why don't we technical people unite? Why not pick the top 3 problems facing this country and find technical solutions. Circulate what we find to other top technical circles and forward the results to the top. Maybe it would get lost in acedemia or would be ignored at the top but if we sit around and just talk about it, then we have not helped to make the change either.

Frank S.
Achiever's madness; when enough is still not enough. ---FS
We have to stop looking at the world through our physical eyes. The universe is NOT what we see. It is the quantum world that is real. The rest is just an electron illusion. ---FS
3l
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l »

Hi Frank:

That is why we are here.
The internet will spread the work near and far.
I think the group has hit many topics here from nuclear powered stuff to low tech and everything in between.
College students Google us to tramp on the new stuff in search of paper materials.
We are living proof to anyone that will read about us that the people are not mindless little dweebes as some folks picture us.
Collectively we are working on large aspects of the future right now. We are not the ones with our tail in the air and head in the sands. The group is proceeding to a goal that is far off but necessary.
As I have done fusion many skills have been learned ,much research in the energy field has been done.
Loads of instruments and apparatus get build on a day to day basis by many folks here.
I share many of the construction tips on line.
Some unexpected but neat solutions have shown up.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

I wonder if there is an efficient solar cell technology out there...
I once read about 75 % efficient panels, but i guess that was just a boo-boo.
Wind turbines are good stuff...where there is enough wind...I would hate to see coal making a major come back (well it was never gone really), but i guess i will have to live with it.
I bet there is some new technology that already exist, but is top secret...it has always been this way. I just wonder where the real logic in that is.

Adam
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Richard Hull
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Richard Hull »

Solar is a great renewable, but the very finest efficiency is about 37% and that is in the outrageously expensive NASA cells only. The average consumer, if they have the bucks, is at about 22% in the most expensive panels. Common panels are about 18%. Solar is getting there, but slowly.

Nuclear (fission) is indeed the only solution on the horizon that makes sense.

Coal WILL be used as a stop gap. Get used to it. We have over 300 years worth in the US right now! It may get so bad that we just say to hell with the atmosphere as we slip and slide into the Malthusian climax.

Hydroelectric is a bit limited, but just about the finest power source on the planet. Folks still whine about the impact on the land when a hydro dam is built. This attitude will just fade into the background when the angry mobs are in the streets.

Usually, just before the mobs hit the streets....like when politicians can't get second terms across the board.........something will be done....What that is and when it will occur is for all of us to see and live through.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

I wonder if those 37 % efficient panels would be cheaper if they would be mass produced. Or is it their material that costs much?

You know a great model for corporate politics, is the computer industry. Let's look at optical drives...
When CD-ROMs have appeared for the public they gradually got faster and cheaper, then when CD-RW units appeared they did the same, same with DVD-ROMs, and the latest, DVD-RAM drives.
I would bet a lot of money on it, that they have ALL the needed technology, plans, and everything for the fastest drive, before the first, slowest is released. They make a lot of money by gradually releasing new stuff, because people will replace the old with the new as they follow the trend.
Those business people calculate a lot, to release new stuff JUST at the right "moment". They wait until the need builds up.
Same with everything else i think. I'm sure the same will happen with solar cells. It's almost certain that a highly efficient solar technology already exists, but it is not "economical" to release it just yet. They will announce age old stuff as revolutionary science...
This is no conspiracy theory, this is corporate politics.

Adam
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by davidtrimmell »

Hi, the problem with solar cells is that they are not going to be very profitable for the manufacturers when and if the prices dramatically drop. That is unless they find a way to make them fail every 5 years or so, like how incandescence light bulbs are designed to fail. Currently PV panels have 20-25 year warranties, manufacturers will replace them if they drop below 80% or if internal contacts fail.
What I would like to see is federal subsidy. Like what we have done with the oil industry. If we could have taken $150billion and invested it in solar PV, and pebble bed reactor technologies, instead of spending it in creating a puppet government in Iraq to ensure our access on their oil. Then we would have inexpensive access to renewable PV and have a pretty darn fool proof nuclear power infrastructure!

It is all doable folks! It will just take some politicians with backbone; unfortunately they are a rare (if not extinct) breed. But popular uprisings have a way of convincing even the spineless. Remember it is our world, not theirs. At least as long as some semblance of Democracy remains…

David Trimmell
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Starfire »

Hydroelectric generation does not always require big dams. While living in Switzerland I was always impressed with the multiple generators on a single stream. If you went to the top of a mountain and found a stream coming from the snow - you would find a small turbine generator or Pelton wheel. If you moved down a hundred feet or so you would find another generator on the same stream and so-on every hundred feet down the mountain I recall counting 94 on one mountain road which followed a stream down to a river valley - no energy wasted and at 10kw a time.
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Re: The last days of oil

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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey »

I don't see the point, it requires fuel, and is very inefficient (7-8 %). An external combustion engine (also requires continious heat, like the Stirling engine) with all its losses of converting mechanical energy to electricity is far more efficient i think.

Well one good point is that it has no moving parts.

Adam
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by MARK-HARRISS »

The solar cell industry uses the surplus silicon from the semiconductor industry to make their cells from. the quality is far better than is needed for making cells but only recently has someone designed a method of making solar grade silicon with only 1/3 the energy input of semi grade silicon.

The only problem is that every time solar companies have made a cheaper cell the costs have not been passed on to the consumer as they have a profit to make like all companies.

Mark H
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by AnGuy »

David Trimmell wrote:
> . Currently PV panels have 20-25 year warranties, manufacturers will replace them if they drop below 80% or if internal contacts fail.

Shell only provides a 10 year warrent on PVs at 80%. BP offers a 25 year warranty which I would be very suspicion of.

If you do some research on the Web, you can find out lots about PV degrading. The cells are made of crystalline sillicon, that over time develops microfractures caused by thermal cycling. Usenet has lots of discussions that the 20+ warranties aren't realistic and its riddled with lots of marketing hype that will probably be reneged on. Buyer beware!

I would be concerned with enviromental effects on PV panels, such as hail, ice, falling trees, hurricanes, etc. To my knowledge, no one offers warranties for acts of nature. I have a suspicion, that these new thin film are so fragile that they will be damaged well before you can make a claim on the warranty.

"If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is!"
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by AnGuy »

>The solar cell industry uses the surplus silicon from the semiconductor industry to make their cells from. the quality is far better than is needed for making cells but only recently has someone designed a method of making solar grade silicon with only 1/3 the energy input of semi grade silicon.

The only way PV cells can be truely economic sound is if they can be made using something else than silicon or other semiconductor metals. They need to be created from organic materials. Something that is cheap, doesn't create hazardous waste, and can be easily recycled.
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by AnGuy »

>Use the temperature gradiants in the ocean to make electricity.
Nuclear is the only solution even close at this point.
Solar needs years more developement.

Interesting that you mention that. The next generation Gas/Coal/Oil fired plants will used multicycle generation, using Propane. For instance Gas fired Plants will used three cycles: Combusion of Gas in a gas turbine --> gas Turbine exhausts to generate steam for a steam turbine --> Steam exhaust to heat a closed cycle turbine using Propane (as the gas medium) , The propane isnt burned. Think of freon in a air conditioner.

The final exhaust temperature is to leave the plant less than a 100 F above the air temperature. Very effiecient. All new coal and oil plants will also be built using supercritical steam to maximize efficiency. Supercritical Steam is steam that is heated above 1000 F. Normal Plants use steam between 600F and 800F

>My question is why is this country sitting on it's hands?

Part of it has to do with deregulation and another part is the enviromentalist. Deregulation caused the Enron Bankrupies and caused a lot of US power companies to build up mountains of debt. They simply don't have the money.

The enviromentalist also won't let the build new coal or Nuke plants either. The alternative Energy lobbiest have convienced the politians and americans that all it will take is a little investment in thier companies to make the US both a green and energy independant nation. As PT Barnum said "There's a sucker born every minute!".Meanwhile Ethanol, Biodiesel and the rest of the crap is made by burning imported oil, which the end result is that we import 5-10% more oil than we just used pure gasoline (instead of the 10% Ethanol that is added to gasoline)

Just wait until the gas lines and ration of the 70's and rolling blackouts of 2000 return. Them they'll all l start bitching that we didn't build any new coal or nuke plants. People are only Green as long as they can pump cheap gas into thier cars and heat their home using cheap home heating oil.
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