The last days of oil

Reflections on fusion history, current events, and predictions for the 'fusion powered future.
3l
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The last days of oil

Post by 3l » Sat Jul 10, 2004 5:54 am

Hi Folks:

I used to work for a DOE based company.
Back in 1976 ,the company held a 4 day seminar with Texico's Aramco Division. Back then the best estimates of the Fields in Saudia Arabia were not that good. At that time the Ghwar Fields
were estimated to have 61 billion barrels of oil that could be recovered. The crisis was that was 60 % of the TOTAL production of world oil. Well 30 years later a new look at the same figures has occurred via the Hudson Institute. Fire alarms have gone off all over Washington. It appears that the Saudis
have already pumped away 55 billion barrels since the Gwar field opened in 1950. They are in the fourth generation of oil production and recovery. The oil fields no longer have any pressure to move the oil to the well head. They pump 70 million gallons of seawater daily to move the oil to wells. That 5 billion figure breaks down to 5000 days with a consumption of 15 million barrels per day. But that figure is too low because it does not include the onstreaming of China and India. With those factors taken into account 1200 days tops or roughly four years.
the rest of the world will only be able to maintain that 30 % production for just a few years then it's lights out in 7-8 years.
When the saltwater hits the well head it's all over.
It will occur swiftly and with no warning.
We barely have time to build 100 new nuke plants if the Oil President isn't in therapy.
Why must it always be this Way?

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey » Sat Jul 10, 2004 9:43 am

HOLY!
I estimated about 15-20 years....
I heard that there are vast fields in Alaska, and somewhere else in the world. But they cannot be extracted. What about russian reserves?
Are you sure that info is correct (sorry, i just want to be absolutely sure)?
Somebody told me that the US government is just spreading such info to pump the oil prices up (while there is enough oil for more than 50 years), but i don't think that is the case....then why did they keep it so low for so long there?

Adam

3l
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l » Sat Jul 10, 2004 1:16 pm

Hi Adam:

The fun part of this storm is the Bush Adminstration knew the facts a coupla years ago. That is the BIG secret of the energy report that the Chainey's buddies have supressed so thoroughly in our country. The Saudi's have been locking production figures into a safe for many years now.. Finally someone someone started analysing
the past data that the Society of Petroleum Engineers had been reporting for years. If people had the data why did it take so long?
No one could take a comprehensive look at the data until all of the printed reports were scanned into a data base so it could be handled. When prelimenary reports were handed to the Saudis
of emanent collapse by their White House buddies they finally released the data to prevent a panic. That's how we learned that 55 billion gallons had already been pumped. They tell us that they have a plan to keep pumping oil even when the oil is inert. If you believe this fairy tale we have 50 years more oil in the Ghwar. This is what the Saudi have been protecting us from. Oh for the layperson,inert oil is the situation we have in Western Texas oil fields.
for every 100 thousand barrels of oil extracted you have to remove 10 million barrels of injected water.
Except clear water in Saudi Arabia is in short supply.
So they inject raw sea water instead.
Clear water does not react with the oil so Texas can be stripped without special measures.
Sea water reacts with the oil, we pointed this out in 1978.
So you get a salt reaction that saponifies the crude into a black soap like goo.
The unreacted crude that is left is tainted with saltwater that eats away all equipment it touches.
Russia's remaining fields have been in production for more than 50 years especially the Caspian sea area. The researve estimates are now Federation state secrets. You can draw your own conclusions.They are nowhere as large as the Ghwar field.
The Saudis have been vainly looking for another Ghwar but no luck. In fact the oil geeks have been turning every blade of grass in vain. No large researve fields anywhere just pockets of oil here and there.

>>>>>>>The writing is on the wall Folks.<<<<<<<<<<

Oh BtW:
Another neocon fantasy just bit the dust hard.
See they planned to tap the researves of natural gas from the Ghwar.
But the Saudi's used NG to distill potable water from seawater.
So even that plan to send liquified NG to America is in doubt now.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey » Sat Jul 10, 2004 1:30 pm

And is inert oil as useful as standard oil? I suspect it's not. And doesn't it take more energy to pump out oil after some time than the energy contained in that oil? Then it is totally stupid to continue extraction...

Well i think they will somehow manage to stretch the oil age somehow...though i'm not happy about it..
I mean 7-8 years? Though it is true that international iol prices started rising...
If all we have left is that time , we should definetly prepare somehow...Maybe fuel cells will take over in that short time? Though i doubt they will...what about plastics?

I think they will rather build more coal plants insted of nuke plants, we have a lot of coal....oh yippeee....
Maybe they will make fuel out of coal for cars too....possible?

I just wonder what will happen?
Are you absolutely sure that pumping inert oil for another 50 years is a fairy tale? Isn't that soapy goo useful somehow?
Well i really hope the oil age is ending, but this may be a little too fast...it seems like it's already too late to act, so we switch without a glitch!

Adam

3l
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l » Sat Jul 10, 2004 1:45 pm

Hi Adam:

Yes the goo theory has been tested in university years ago.
It has been confirmed.
Tar sands are formed when an oil deposit has saltwater ocean water as it base as it evaporates as a land locked sea the salt turns the crude into goo like crud. Canada has loads of tar sand.

Btw one of Fusion's main selling points in the Eighties was to use fusion power to melt the tar sands for production.

LOL!

The salt water has already reached the fourth generation well heads. They are trying to use intelligent well heads that pass only oil and shut for water. But it won't last the saltwater level will get so high that the horizontal piping will finally be submerged in pure salt water. Every time they thought they could slant drill higher into the Ghwar dome to produce it only took 30 days of production for the salt water to reappear.
I hate to stake my future on Trust Us.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey » Sat Jul 10, 2004 3:39 pm

Hmm....then we are in for it.
Do you think that alternatives (biodiesel, natural gas, fuel cells, etc..) will be able to replace gasoline in the next 10 years?

So there is about 8 years until the last "drops"? I mean we cannot run out of oil in an instant. It must take at least a couple years , a period when the gasoline prices are rising into the sky...this may have already started.

I wonder what will happen...or are we just over acting?

Adam

3l
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l » Sat Jul 10, 2004 4:01 pm

Hi Adam:

This is what people want to know.
Ever wonder why this president is so concerned with God?
He's praying the oil doesn't run out on his shift.
Estimates are just that estimates.
They wont turn into fact till the end puts a date on it.
They use fuzzy logic all the time in this stuff.
To you and me this is nothing but guessing
game.
We are truely rolling the dice here.
The really scarry part is the figures could vary +- 20 %.
The snake eyes roll coud be a lot closer than 8 years.
We simply don't know.
It is better chance to error on the side of the worst senarios here I think.
A book is now going to print on this very subject.
Wonder if it will come out for the election?


Happy Fusosong!
Larry Leins
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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey » Sat Jul 10, 2004 10:27 pm

I have a (maybe a little silly) question.
Is inert oil what is left after sea water reaches the well heads (meaning that they "pushed" out all the crude)? So it is a mix of oil and water. And if the water they used is salt water , then all they can extract is some gooey stuff..
Oh and where do you get this info from?

Adam

3l
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by 3l » Sat Jul 10, 2004 11:16 pm

Hi Adam:

The information is at the website www.hudson.com
Also the Society of Petroleum Engineers has online stuff also.
Look in a Petroleum Engineering books under recovery methods.
In a couple months a book by Mullen will lay it out in print

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Adam Szendrey
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Re: The last days of oil

Post by Adam Szendrey » Sat Jul 10, 2004 11:19 pm

Many thanks Larry. I feel the urge to get together some solar energy converter in the next couple years....
Umm, Larry are you sure that is the website? All i get is some job site.

Adam

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