Another great analysis of power fusion - The dream

Reflections on fusion history, current events, and predictions for the 'fusion powered future.
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Dennis P Brown
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Re: Another great analysis of power fusion - The dream

Post by Dennis P Brown »

I will add (like I usually do) that a semi-small effort has certainly been very successful: the Wendelstein 7x (a stellarator) by the Germans is coming along nicely and they refuse to make huge claims or make loud noise; rather, they are doing and achieving amazing results. See: https://www.ans.org/news/article-3166/g ... fficiency/ .

I have no doubt that within ten years they will create a stable plasma with a fusion power plant level/density plasma that the machine will hold stable for over 30 minutes. Better still, this will be routinely performed by that machine. Essentially proving that a stable, net energy fusion reactor is certainly possible using that configuration.

That all said, there is no chance what-so-ever any attempt at a net power plant fusion reactor will be built in the next fifty years or likely, this century. Such a 'power plant' machine would cost many times that of a fission plant (see iter - besides, iter is highly unlikely to work w/o massive failure and even if that issue is resolved, never achieve net power much less supply power.) The absolute fact remains that magnetic containment is far too expensive to build and protection of the magnets and maintenance of the shield walls are far too difficult engineering issues to solve in a cost effective manner - period. I will say that it is possible that a proto-type reactor using the German approach might be built within a thirty year time frame - maybe. But that would be research only and cost on the order of a fission nuke plant at the least.

Does this mean we shouldn't continue research? Of course not - we spend far more on the life cycle of one fleet carrier (aircraft/support ships) then all fusion research by all countries since the 1950's (iter included.) These research efforts have already shown one clear path (stellarator; still not cheap enough and needs SC magnets) and it is possible others might be developed - like recent advances in accelerator tech - the far cheaper methodologies that have been developed; here I'm talking ion beam fusion and break-throughs in making ultra cheap GeV beam protons. That is a path that might work for cost effective fusion but has zero funding interest or work to date.
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Paul_Schatzkin
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The New Yorker Weighs In on Fusion

Post by Paul_Schatzkin »

I'll just stash this here, since it seems consistent with the gist of this thread and no need start another.

The New Yorker has a medium-length feature in this week's issue about fusion research. It is mostly a distillation of all the current, costly, large scale magnetic fusion projects going on around the world. There is some emphasis on 'high temperature superconductors' (HTS) like that's the thing that's going to make the difference that will produce fusion energy's 'Kitty Hawk' moment (remember, the first powered flight was what, all of 12 seconds?).

To me it reads like a recap-for-unitiated of what I get in my "nuclear fusion" Google Alert every day. Which is to say: it's all entirely in keeping with the '20 years in the future and always will be' mentality.

The article is available from newyorker.com:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021 ... ate-change

...but that link might require a subscription, so I exported the whole thing into a .pdf attached herewith.
TNYonFusion.pdf
(122.75 KiB) Downloaded 276 times
There is a modest attempt to recount the history of fusion research going back to Arthur Eddington's earliest hypotheses on the topic, and a nod to Edward Teller as the 'Shakespearean villain' in the story. Nothing about Farnsworth or any kind of fusion that doesn't involve magnets.

I still think best that can be said about the whirling hot Russian donuts is "it's like trying to wrap jello in rubber bands." Doesn't matter if the rubber bands are superconducting, the plasma is still hot jello.

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Paul Schatzkin, aka "The Perfesser" – Founder and Host of Fusor.net
Author of The Boy Who Invented Television: 2023 Edition – https://amz.run/6ag1
"Fusion is not 20 years in the future; it is 60 years in the past and we missed it."
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Richard Hull
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Re: Another great analysis of power fusion - The dream

Post by Richard Hull »

I agree with Pauls' synopsis on the article. Bringing the average unimaginitive, marginally educated citizen up to some genuinely useful background on fusion and its complexities at the power production end of the effort is a bridge too far. I do believe that the best among such folks can parrot, by rote, all the high points, but do they have any indepth understanding of what they parrot or is this just for the fellow intellictuals about them at a fashionable wine and chesse gathering.

The scientifically adept who read in depth on fusion physics can certainly own some of the issues at a usable level and speak intelligently on the subject. However those who have done fusion and read the texts and and have interacted with kindred spirits, will own so much more related to power fusion issues. This is why this fusor.net exists! A home for action and discussion by people who really want to understand why a process to create fusion works and why another process does not.

We discuss why some processes will never do power fusion and why others that seem reasonable at first blush, run into problems which, at the moment, seem insuperable. In the end, the really smart folks, the best among us can not advance one single process that seems a sure way to power producing fusion. The best among us also look at the engineering and can view power production from the power companies perspective bean counters. I call this the cradle to grave perspective. Fusion power must make someone money all along the way to the wall outlet. Currently fusion pays only physicists, engineers and technicians involed solely in research situations. Little spider monkies clamoring over over giant edifices under the direction of a sea of engineers directed by flatulent, dispeptic physicists whose dual job is to figure out a path forward long enough into the future to keep them employed as well as continously liying to the press in search of continued congressional funding of their fiefdom.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
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