Coronavirus pandemic

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Dennis P Brown
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dennis P Brown » Sat Jul 18, 2020 10:46 am

Latest on what does and does not work, drug wise: (one lesson from this is certainly don't listen to the Fox "News" programs since they provide a lot of false information on COVID-19 and its medications)

https://apnews.com/336858902a2f21759da4 ... SocialFlow

Rex Allers
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Rex Allers » Sat Jul 18, 2020 3:28 pm

My understanding is that remdesivir might slightly improve recovery if you have a bad case of Covid-19 but the bill you receive after treatment might then kill you.

From what I have read, I am open to thinking about this as a possible preventative vaccination that is available now:

"... two studies suggest some existing vaccines,
the Bacillus Calmette–Guerin (BCG) TB vaccine, and
the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine,
might convey some protective effect – which would be more or less immediate.

It should be emphasized that neither of these approaches was developed to address COVID-19 directly. Nonetheless, there is some evidence that each may provide some benefit."
Rex Allers

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Dennis P Brown
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dennis P Brown » Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:43 am

What really distrubs me is the intentional stating of absolutely false information by not just the Fox News system (though a few there do provide good information), but that some of our leaders do this as well; this is beyond irresponsible (and leading to so many needless deaths) but is being amplified by people who either do not understand enough science to doubt these liars or have their good judgement clouded by wanting not to believe (and not just for partisan reasons.) Then these people, aided by some nation states, continue to spread false information on the internet and these lie's further confusing more people leading to the disease further uncontrolled spread. I never thought I'd see a day where intentionally lying about a deadly illness and an easy to transmitt one, at that, would gain so much traction - much less be activaly encourage by our own (!) political leaders who fully know/have access to scientific fact but choose to spread this deadly and false information.

That is why I site my sources and often add warnings when I have my doubts to that information. It is hard to trust sources with so much false and misleading information out there. While science is based on fact finding, it has its limits (and this confuses so many) and it is peer review and further research that is necessary to finally convert initial scienticific information into something that is considered true fact (now I have to add that 'true' adjective to the word 'fact' thanks to these people.) Laymen often don't understand this critical difference and those's who motivation is to sow discord or lie's easily exploit this process. Till now, this was mostly done by special interest groups to create distrust of human induced global warming (AGW) but now, is being done for the SARS-CoV-2 illness. This is just so hard to believe I have trouble even writing these facts because I don't want to believe them.

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Richard Hull
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Richard Hull » Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:52 pm

People are just people and will always be people with as many stripes and variations as one might imagine. Most are easily led as if they have a ring in their nose. Let 'em be led. Let 'em believe in the flat earth, the faked moon landing or what ever else they like which is spewed at them by the real leaders out there, be they Adolf Hitler or Jesus Christ. Real true leaders always gather a following, a flock of folks that swallow their every word. You can't really stop them so either join 'em of get out of their way, for like cattle, they will trample you. Save your love, tenderness, caring, bile, venom, and hatred for personal issues close to home. Screw the rest of 'em!

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
Retired now...Doing only what I want and not what I should...every day is a saturday.

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Frank Sanns
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Frank Sanns » Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:13 pm

What to do as a world leader or health expert then?

Not all masks work. Not all people know how to use a mask properly.

Not all people believe there is a virus. Not all people want to have their freedoms infringed on.

Not all people want their shops closed. Not all shops want people to not wear masks. Not all shops want people to wear masks.

Not all people believe COVID is dangerous and it is just like the flu. Not all people believe it is safe for children to go back to school even though children don't seem to be hardly affected at all.

Not all people believe herd immunity is possible with this virus because of the short half life of antibodies. Not all people will be vaccinated short circuiting the push to ward a possible herd immunity.

Not all people believe the virus is a contagious as it really is.

This last statement is really how we got here. Early on, the long latency, high contagiousness, the rapid undetected prolific spread, and the asymptomatic carriers all put us way behind the curve. The early lockdown measures that most of us experienced for 90 days should have worked. In fact, it should have extinct the virus in our shores. Unfortunately, "necessary" services like Wallmart, HomeDepot, Target, and many other large stores stayed open during those three months and no masks were required and no limit to the number of people in the stores was implemented. As such, we wasted 90 days of our lives and revenue.

But ask yourself this, had the national guard been called out to enforce a total stay at home order for EVERYBODY for 45 days, what would have happened. Would we have extinct the virus or created a civil war? There are no good answers. They all lead to some dark territory no matter what side of the aisle you reside.

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Dennis P Brown
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dennis P Brown » Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:41 pm

Be careful - the difference between reasonable questions on what people tolerate or do and what are simply strawman arguments isn't very wide.

I do believe the American people can easily handle moderate restrictions similar to Europe. Even the 9-11 attacks allowed massive restrictions yet people accepted these and compared to Covid, the death rate was very small. We have lost over 140,000 people and the significant majority would be alive if we followed not very restrictive containment rules and stepped up testing via a war-like response that the US has had little trouble in the past doing - see 9-11 response. The economic restrictions similar to Europe, however, would have been more painful than the piecemeal efforts we did execute; the results? We seriously flatten and even reversed the curves for inflection rates. Areas that relaxed or removed these restrictions are seeing massive increase in Covid cases now.

If the choice is the extreme's (National Guard - not that I heard anyone serious propose that) or a few million deaths and a virus that constantly kills a few hundred thousand year in and year out, certainly most people would accept that - though that is hardly necessary. Of course, that extreme isn't likely since far less restrictions can control this virus.

The overwhelming issue is having leaders that tell the truth and actually provide leadership, direction and start a proper national action using fairly simple controls that would drive the infection rates down to what Europe is experiencing.

Dan Knapp
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dan Knapp » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:17 am

This is a good WSJ story summarizing what we know about fatality rates at this point:
https://apple.news/A09wG6f_9REuVyhn6vEViTw

Dan Knapp
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dan Knapp » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:36 am

Something that has concerned me even more than the current pandemic itself is what it has revealed as a major gap in our national security preparedness. We are indeed very vulnerable to a biological attack; and six months into this pandemic, we still have major gaps in our response. We have no clear national response plan, we still have shortages of PPE, shortages of testing supplies, and the politicization of the response has further divided us. A significant portion of our citizens believe that the whole pandemic is just part of the run up to the election, and that it will disappear after November. I have been very surprised that here has not been more discussion of the national security ramifications. But then again, we have enough to concern us right now without adding this issue.

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Dennis P Brown
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dennis P Brown » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:59 am

The WSJ isn't accessible without a subscription so could you provide details? The headline say's 5 to 10 per 1,000 people die. That is a very large difference and how did they come to these conclusions (data) would be helpful. Last I read (can't recall the source (might have been WHO?) so this might be very wrong) was the death rate was about 0.56% (which agree's with the WSJ lowest end estimate.)

A Nature article gives the same (5 to 10 per 1000 infected) for the death rate; so, maybe that was the source?

See: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2

Should note this still isn't a soild number, yet. And age and/or pre-conditions have a vast impact. So be careful using this simplistic average rate.

For instance, 99 people make $10,000/yr and one makes $1,000,000/yr. Is the average salary for these 100 people truly an accurate measure of what most people in this study make?

This is no trival issue since even professionals and pretty much every reporter cites the average as something universally accuarte and offering insight to an issue (sometimes it does but far more often say's little or is very mis-leading.) For an excellent and short overview - see:
https://www.statisticshowto.com/probabi ... dian-mode/

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Richard Hull
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Richard Hull » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:32 pm

Typically, in statistics, you through out any "flyers". This assumes a useful clustering somewhere in the data. A raw data average is never much good unless there is a very tight clustering with no flyers.

The hospitals and other forces are at work as people who die due to injuries from misadventure are being tested and if positive at time of death have, in some instances, been counted as covid deaths. There is big money in covid deaths when the smoke clears and promised covid relief checks are sent to hospitals by the Fed.

Will the GAO nit pick through the claims? Hell no, it is too much like work. Just write the checks, print the money and move on.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
Retired now...Doing only what I want and not what I should...every day is a saturday.

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