Coronavirus pandemic

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Paul_Schatzkin
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Paul_Schatzkin » Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:28 am

Well, hey, hi, howzit. Greetings from the Outskirts of Twangtown.

Yeah, subject is somewhat "off topic" for this site, but, given the extraordinary circumstances we're all dealing with, entirely appropriate. I think a site like this, which tries diligently to stick to some semblance of scientific verity, can lend itself to an elevated discourse amid the #mediafrenzy.

Thanks to Frank Sanns for that detailed description of how a virus spreads. Sheesh. I started stocking up on groceries about two weeks ago, and figured I had enough to go at least two weeks; Over the weekend I thought of some additional things I might like to have now that I'm settling in.

Now, I don't really go to the store any more: about two months ago I discovered Instacart grocery delivery, and even though I live out here in West Bumfuque, they deliver for a reasonable monthly fee and a tip to the driver. So I put an order in over the weekend, tweaking it as the Monday delivery neared. But first, by the time my shopper got to the store, a bunch of things I wanted were out of stock. And second... well.. they still had to be picked up and delivered. And Frank's account of how a virus can fester and spread in even the best conditions... well, let's just say it gives me pause about the next delivery.

I did take precautions: I wore rubber gloves when I unpacked the bags, but then I realized I was using the rubber gloves to open the refrigerator and freezer and cupboards. Oops. I wiped off all the surfaces I touched with the gloves. Then I washed the gloves like I was washing my hands. Then I took the gloves off and washed my actual hands.

I work in a retail environment - an Apple store in Nashville. And over the past two weeks or so, my alarm at my potential exposure has steadily increased. I worked 8-hour shifts on Tues and Weds last week, as the case numbers were just beginning to raise alarm nationwide, and as Tennessee reported its first cases. I was scheduled to work again this Saturday and Sunday. On Friday I called my manager and said that, on the one hand I did not expect any special dispensation by virtue of being 2-3 times older than my co-workers. On the hand, I am in the age bracket (I'll be 70 in November) where the mortality rate is FIVE TIMES the statistical average. My manager said "OK, we'll take you off the schedule - and make sure you get paid for the time lost (which absolutely floored me; if I ever speak ill of this company again, may god strike me down).

The next day, Apple announced that it was doing the same for the entire retail chain (except China, which is now reopening), which means 50,000 some people are being furloughed WITH PAY. The initial closure was scheduled until 3/27, but based on the China experience, I expect it to go 4-6 weeks.

Bottom line: I have no way of knowing if I have been exposed to the virus. Reading Frank's account above, I think it's safe to say that nobody knows if they have been exposed. I certainly have no symptoms, but, jeezuz, every time I sneeze I stop and wonder.

I am well enough stocked to not have to leave the house for at least two weeks (though there are still a few things I'd like to get). I am finding things to do, the time off will prove to be a blessing in many ways. But I know that there are millions of others who are not nearly as well situated. What. A. Fucking. Mess.

Everybody take care of yourselves.

--PS

But first, a little Pandemic Humor:
89936517_10163018986500401_3824237591868211200_n.jpg
89936517_10163018986500401_3824237591868211200_n.jpg (77.84 KiB) Viewed 1237 times
Paul Schatzkin, aka "The Perfesser" – Founder and Host of Fusor.net
Author of The Boy Who Invented Television - http://farnovision.com/book.html
"Fusion is not 20 years in the future; it is 50 years in the past and we missed it."

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Bob Reite
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Bob Reite » Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:18 pm

Yep, I will probably spend more time on fusor development as well. Not going to any studio locations unless it's an off the air emergency that can't be handled remotely. As far as transmitter sites, by and large they are unattended these days, so I consider them safe to visit as there is no human contact unless another tech has been there in the last 72 hours or less.

Life on the virus on various surfaces.

Suspended in air: 3 hours.
Copper: 4 hours. I would suspect that Silver would be similar to copper if not better.
Cardboard: 24 hours.
Plastic and stainless: up to 72 hours.

Reference: New England Journal of Medicine
https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2004973
The more reactive the materials, the more spectacular the failures.
The testing isn't over until the prototype is destroyed.

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Rich Feldman
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Rich Feldman » Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:31 pm

You all know that Corona virus goes well with Lyme disease, right? :-)

The social distance protocol can be skipped on Saturdays and Sundays, for those of us with weekend immune systems.
All models are wrong; some models are useful. -- George Box

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Nicolas Krause
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Nicolas Krause » Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:59 pm

Things up in the great white north seem to be going alright. We've just had a state of emergency declared, and my local makerspace has shut down, so I don't have access to the tools I was hoping to use for my fusor. Luckily an ok drill press is a reasonable price on amazon and free shipping so I've put an order in! Hopefully everything I've put in requests for makes it here in the next little while. In addition we've had the run on toilet paper that seems to be the first real sign of panic, I talked with my grandmother who lived on a farm through the 2nd world war and she was mostly confused by it. Couldn't understand people's desperation for toilet paper at all!

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Richard Hull
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Richard Hull » Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:52 pm

I think a lot of folks don't know this is an upper respiratory type of flu rather than a lower expressiratory type flu.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
Retired now...Doing only what I want and not what I should...every day is a saturday.

Peter Schmelcher
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Peter Schmelcher » Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:06 am

I don’t chime in on these discussions but B-b-b-baby, you just ain't seen n-n-nothin' yet.
If you are in the ignorance is bliss camp stop reading now.

If the government does a fantastic job informing society of the danger and people listen and change their behavior the death rate could be as small as 0.5%. A bit of political incompetence and some public stupidity 1.5%, full on stupidity 3.5%. Let’s be honest we all know someone who is a bit clueless and if you think of the Kevin Bacon game or 5 degrees of separation, talking on the phone is probably a good idea.

Tomorrow the border between Washington state and British Columbia will be closed to all non-essential travel, I have family and friends on both sides.

40-minute documentary on the 1918 flu. Spoiler alert, it didn't start in Spain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c

additional interesting info

Estimating actual COVID 19 cases (novel corona virus infections) in an area based on deaths
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk


COVID-19 Updates- Canada
http://www.covid-19canada.com/

(10 min) foreshadowing posted 2 years ago
How did the 1918 flu pandemic start and could we have another one? | Ockham's Razor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIafYHjx04U


COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 19) March Update- causes, symptoms, diagnosis, treatment, pathology
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKpVMiv ... e=youtu.be

Visualizing the History of Pandemics
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/histor ... 45zHu_UM28

Covid-19 #Coronavirus DataPack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIafYHjx04U

Should you think these number aren’t that bad; I have a game for you with a bullet and a 30-chamber revolver.

Stay safe,
Peter

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Rich Feldman
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Rich Feldman » Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:28 pm

It's telling to compare the deaths/infections ratio between jurisdictions with different kinds of healthcare system and lockdown policy.
But easy to misinterpret when their start dates are different by even a week.

I hope the Johns Hopkins coronavirus map/dashboard is well defended against malicious actors seeking to profit or to push fake information.
Anybody know where DIY chart-ers can get the underlying numbers in tabular form, other than by scraping news articles?
All models are wrong; some models are useful. -- George Box

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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Andrew Seltzman » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:21 pm

All the charts you want:
https://corona.help/
Andrew Seltzman
www.rtftechnologies.org

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Richard Hull
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Richard Hull » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:18 pm

Pandemics are at best spotty, thinning of the herd events compared to 20th century wars, purges, racial cleansings, mass tribal eliminations in Africa, etc. Medicines of some real value started appearing in the 1920's. Viral research with the advent of the genome studies, etc., have armed us to a degree never seen in human history. Just as the wadding of humans in close quarters, runaway birth rates in the worst of places, act to breed many new hazards via the human filth borne of runaway populations, create these pandemics, yet, we troop on. Good old Malthus and his predictions and nature's propensity to clean house with ever fresh and continuing disasters work to keep the human infection of the earth in some sort of balance when man-made significant wars and mass starvations are spaced too far apart.

The news media lives on and profits from fear and hype in a way that can make a simple pandemic seem like the end of the world to the little man cowering in the corner. Everyone is now hyper-aware and hyper-frightened. When we used to just have the newspapers and radio, many things seemed far away. Now we have everything breech-loaded constantly like a pipeline to our brains via a stream of electronics that we cling to like the cross of old. We love to be in a constant state of fear and doom, in fear for our lives, now that being in fear for our souls is passe'. Without constant fear, we are at peace within, and many can't stand being alone and at peace within themselves. We espouse longing for such peace, but in our hearts, we fear and loath it, for without fear and trial we have no purpose, no reality. We lust for bad news. The famous newscaster in Great Britain during WWII, Alvar Lidell, Is famous for during the blitz opening his newscast with "news of fresh disaster".

This pandemic is but a temporary spasmodic. Regardless of how many it lays low, Earth will remain in its orbit, and more people will continue to be killed by other people than any naturally generated event.

All of this sudden terror is due to our feeling we are proof against all situations and reliance on our own super connectivity, science and supply chains. These are becoming ever more complex, interlinked and fragile with each passing year where the billions on this planet have been put to sleep with the status quo and the feeling that we are invincible. As a species, we actually are actually quite indestructible. The human infection is so great on this planet, only a 100 mile asteroid might take out all of us and probably not even then. Our brains and our will to survive will forever have a huge number of survivors in even the worst of scenarios. We are too used to "easy".......Terrible, continuous and fearsome struggle for life, itself, is totally foreign to us.

In the right circumstances of utterly hopeless survival situations. All pretenses related to goodness and civility can disappear and the dangerous, thinking and treacherous human animal will easily arise in many of us....Certainly, in all who will seek to survive at any and all costs. The question is not who would wish to live in such a world, but just simply a question of who chooses to continue to be alive.

This is not a pretty picture, but a picture of possibility, nonetheless. "Hard sayins" as brother Dave Gardner would proffer after pointing out cold hard truths.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
Retired now...Doing only what I want and not what I should...every day is a saturday.

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Rich Feldman
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Rich Feldman » Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:19 pm

I like the charts in the corona.help link posted by Andrew. Thank you.

On the Johns Hopkins map page is a cases-by-time chart that can be switched to semilogarithmic.
According to that, growth of n_infections outside of China is holding steady at 2x every four days, 10x every two weeks.
On track for 1 million before end of this month, and 8 digit numbers by mid April. Some day I bet it will surpass regular flu cases in 2020.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
corona_log.jpg
.
Let's hope to see a downward inflection as lockdowns kick in and the epidemic runs its course.

There are jurisdictions where belated increases in testing could appear as increasing infection rates. Of course that would be manipulated for political reasons. Some of my friends from mainland China say that political manipulation of numbers coming from there is a given. The PRC would not be alone in that regard.
All models are wrong; some models are useful. -- George Box

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