Coronavirus pandemic

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Dan Knapp
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dan Knapp » Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:42 pm

Frank, I would take issue with your statement that it was unexpected. Take a look at Bill Gates 2015 Ted Talk (https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_th ... anguage=en). He and others have been trying to ring the alarm bell for years. Those who study these things fully expected it. The only question was when. The only good thing which might come of this pandemic is that we finally recognize this threat as being as important as military threats. With climate change, the threat is likely to become even greater. Hopefully, this will get more attention to both threats.

Dan Knapp
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dan Knapp » Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:52 pm

Members of this forum, whom I regard as a group of amateur experimental physicists, will enjoy this quote from John Clauser,
“To be an experimental physicist, you need to be able to make anything. You need a mill and a lathe. But, most of all, to be an experimental physicist, you need a junkyard.” (quoted by Louisa Gilder in The Age of Entanglement, Vintage, 2008, p.261.)

The pandemic is offering an opportunity to replenish junkyards. Many people stuck at home are doing housecleaning and discarding all manner of things at curbside. I scored a like new 3 ton rolling jack yesterday. I’ve not seen a lot in electronics yet unless you’re into parts scavenging from consumer electronics. In that regard, it might be one of the last chances to scavenge parts from CRT TV’s. One must weigh the value of a find against the finite risk of viral contamination. I load my finds on a wagon, sanitize my hands, and let the wagon stand several days to decontaminate before further handling.

I began junk collecting as a child. Back then we called it “trash hunting.” I learned my first vacuum tube electronics playing with three tube amplifiers from discarded “suitcase” record players. My junkyard has grown now to where I try to keep track of where things are with an Evernote database. It will be a major problem for my heirs to get rid of when I pass on the great laboratory in the sky. Until then it remains a valuable resource. Happy trash hunting.

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Richard Hull
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Richard Hull » Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:16 am

Frank makes note of what I said two pages back. It is a pandemic, a spasmodic thing. Regardless of how many die, how many jobs are lost or companies go out of business, it will end as all spasmodics do in time. It's bad, yes, but definitely survivable for most all of us here. My major friends are all my age or near it. So far, no one I know as a mere friend has caught it or much less died from it. I remember my grandparents talking about the number of neighbors and their children who died in 1918-1919. My mom was born in 1915 and was only 3. If this thing ever hits my neighborhood and friends like 1918, that will be the time when I get deeply worried. Until that time and not until, I'll just hang around the place having fun and staying clean.

About the junk yard and experimental science. I have the junk yard here in my lab and up stairs. Most of what I need, I have to hand. What is not to hand, I can usually re-purpose something in the pile to serve.
I think I did a FAQ in construction about the tools needed.

I have a medium sized milling machine, 4 lathes from my K-9 southbend to my little watch makers lathe Three drill presses, welding (oxy-acetyline, stick, Spot, TIG, and MIG), Shop shear, two arbor presses, two band saws, I Jig saw, a power metal band saw, Lost wax casting setup with small furnace to melt metals up to copper, etc.

I have a load of hobbies, science books, DVDs VHS tapes, etc. Lots to do and lots to keep me busy.

We are too used to the easy, the normal, the regular, the race to be much better off than the day before. Tougher times are ahead for many once the co-vid goes away to become a dim memory. Plumbers and electricians will have no problems. Folks who can do will have no problems. Folks who have needed talents and skills and can also "do" will not suffer.

The hardest hit are those who have not lived wisely, (economically), Those who have loved living far, far beyond their income. Those who have massive debt that just cannot be forgiven by their debtors who are themselves, in dire straits. Those who have no security blanket, No real money in the bank. Those who have no genuine, real wealth. Genuine wealth is not money! It is useful, usable, applicable skills that are forever in demand. It is fully owned useful tools, implements and items that are also in great and continuous demand or that can be used to farm or assemble and create other things that represent real wealth. Arable land that can be used or tilled, having the knowledge, tools and hands capable of repairing things of real wealth that are broken or damaged. These things are true wealth.

I have mentioned Fredrick Soddy who worked with Rutherford who invented the term radio chemistry and "isotope". Soddy won the 1920 Nobel prize in Chemistry for his work in nuclear chemistry. by the mid 1930's he had written books of wealth vs. virtual wealth. His interest changed to view a world headed for a debt disaster where holders of debt would come to view the debt they held as wealth.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
Retired now...Doing only what I want and not what I should...every day is a saturday.

Dan Knapp
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Real name: Dan Knapp

Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dan Knapp » Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:08 pm

We all have it.
Attachments
Schrodinger's virus.jpg

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Rich Feldman
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Rich Feldman » Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:11 pm

Aha! What if we are entangled?

I came to put up more numbers, with references, instead of anecdotes or philosophy or humor.
The log-chart option has returned to JHU interactive map page, and is now joined by ability to make it USA-specific.
This snip is for USA only, which needs no help plowing through the decade of six digit numbers.
cov_jhu_usa_402.jpg
.
Looks similar to updated chart using numbers cut and pasted from CDC page.
cov_cdc_402.jpg
cov_cdc_402.jpg (31.73 KiB) Viewed 958 times
.
An aspirational reading shows things starting to ease.
Maybe from social distance rules. Maybe because the artifact, from increased testing rate in NY, is well behind us now.
Penciled in are extrapolations from 3/28, with 4-day doubling time, and from 4/01 with 5-day doubling time.
All models are wrong; some models are useful. -- George Box

Dan Knapp
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dan Knapp » Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:22 am

Sewage epidemiology has suddenly become a hot topic. This story just came out today in Nature:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586- ... dFVjBZqwYA
They say measuring virus in sewage could be key to early warning of a second wave of COVID-19. Things have moved quickly, and these measurements are cranking up in SC.

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Frank Sanns
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Frank Sanns » Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:44 am

Actually, it is not looking good at all long term. This is not going to end or even abate in 30 more days or even 60 or probably 90 and beyond. Until there is a vaccine or, a long time from now, herd immunity, we have a long ways to go. This is really only starting since only a fraction of a percent of the US has been infected.

Here are the numbers from today for the top ten states.

While the ultra rapid growth has been lowered, it is still a very large growth rate. Take Pennsylvania for example. We have had a stay at home order for a little over three weeks now. It was an early quarantine state so we were ahead of most of the US. Still after all this time, the growth rate of cases is still at a 20% increase PER DAY! We are not winning this. Many other states and countries are having the same issue. Sure the growth curve is not vertical but the upward slope continues its unrelenting progress.
Screen Shot 2020-04-04 at 9.30.05 PM.png
It seems in all of this, China is the only one that has totally arrested the growth and spread. None of their country has the virus. 1.4 Billion people and the have the lowest per capita rate of the top 20 countries now. The US and the EU dwarfs them with six times the number of cases and growing fast but with only 70% of their population. This does not seem right to me but that is what the numbers are by China reporting, the WHO, and independent sources.

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Richard Hull
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Richard Hull » Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:17 am

Hey, With folks trapped at home in many instances, one might have expected a real flurry of Fusor activity. I would hope most who are not fusing are repairing stuff around home, reading the FAQs - (newbies), mowing lawns and doing other stuff. I just hope most aren't cowering in a corner, totally freaked out in some self-induced mental state. I will admit, the flow of stats here is very informative, fun and interesting.

Lots of fresh disaster to go around for all. No standing in lines for our fair share of terror. Then there is that juicy $1200 that we will get. For the heavily debt ridden, it will be as but a bean cast into the lion's mouth. But, then it is just a bit better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
Retired now...Doing only what I want and not what I should...every day is a saturday.

ian_krase
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by ian_krase » Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:04 pm

I got my sputtering system set up for sputtering titanium (in a manner of speaking).

Dan Knapp
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dan Knapp » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:49 pm

72B2E5E3-2E25-439C-A4EF-80829DA689FD.jpeg
72B2E5E3-2E25-439C-A4EF-80829DA689FD.jpeg (30.47 KiB) Viewed 811 times
If you’ve been wondering what to do with that box of old tee shirts you picked up at meetings and trade shows over the years......

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