Coronavirus pandemic

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Dennis P Brown
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dennis P Brown » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:06 pm

Good news on the isolation front - the CDC say's 10 days after symptoms (ditto for a positive test if one is asymptomatic) or 24 hours after the fever has abated (No idea why they say this relative to after the fever but obviously, that is one criteria they consider critical.)

The Nature paper explains the virus load, and antibody production as a function of time; they determined the ten day period. I gave up after the second paragraph ... .

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2196-x.pdf

and the New England Med Journal agree's:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMc2001737

Again, numbers rule; when there were 947 deaths/day that wasn't new news but today we passed 1000 deaths/day; that is news. Ridiculous.

Regardless of a special number the number of deaths for the last few weeks have been terrible. That the infection rate is climbing, and of course, so will the death rate after a lag, people need to take this serious. Masks and hand washing are one's best defense. And till a vaccine, our best offense, too. It is good medical treatments are improving (a high cost paid for this knowledge) - that has helped lower the death rate compared to what the increasing infection rate might have been.

Dan Knapp
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dan Knapp » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:51 am

Dennis, I am able to get the WSJ article by just clicking on the Apple news link, and I don’t have a WSJ subscription. I don’t know why it won’t work for you. I am not able to get into the WSJ web site directly.

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Dennis P Brown
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dennis P Brown » Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:45 am

Back to apparently very bad news on the virus front; my earlier post about latent damage is apparently - and I hope it is wrong - looking more likely.

See https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm

So even if someone only gets mild symptoms the illness effects can last a very long time. Might be related to the possible organ damage issues.

Again, this isn't proven and is only suspected and don't take this as more then a possiblity or something that if true, might then just turn out to be rare.

That all said, this is a red flag and should scare younger people that think this virus isn't significant and precautions are not needed - you could develop problems in life that will last months, years or a lifttime. Don't take such a risk - wear a mask, wash hands and assume the worse. That way, the worse will not occur.

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Dennis P Brown
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dennis P Brown » Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:46 pm

Tried searching the CDC site for daily deaths (now that it is averaging over a thousnad a day) and can't find the normal tracker - is the administration also supressing that data? I know it isn't allowing hospitals to report directly to the CDC - that in of itself is borderline criminal; people need information to protect themselves and not knowing critical information can lead to further deaths. Not surprised the information has been scrubbed from the site but that is still beyond belief, if true. I hope it is just me and poor search ability.

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Richard Hull
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Richard Hull » Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:46 pm

I worry more about the possibility that the higher ups in the government are finding lies regarding covid deaths. I have talked about those killed or die by other causes such as accidents, mis-adventures, murders, or other causes at the time of hospital admission. All admissions that end in death are being routinely tested for covid. Those that and found positive, being listed as covid related deaths. This kind of crap needs to be suppressed for the lies that they are. It has been proven this is being done. How many happy, asymptomatic positives among the walking and recovered in this nation are now dead?! A microscopic fraction, of course.

Hospitals get big bucks from the government based for each covid related death. Why not cheat? Everyone else does.

One wonders what the real totals are minus the cheating. We will surely never know.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
Retired now...Doing only what I want and not what I should...every day is a saturday.

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Dennis P Brown
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dennis P Brown » Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:03 pm

I have a feeling that lying by private companies among many States on a scale that might account for a significant increase in total seasonal death rates would quickly be detected unless facilitate by the Government - a Government that looks bad by this increase. As a scientist I tend to look into cross references to look for confirmation. So considering the death rates in many countries throughout the world paralleled ours until recently, and some are still paralleling, that would then require many thousands, if not tens of thousands, all over the world to all be lying yet no one willing to reveal the facts - even by countries that do not support the U.S. Possible but not highly likely.

Still, American hospitals not reporting death rates to the CDC would facilitate such dishonesty - yet the Administration ordered this - that would require the Administration wanted to facilitate the dishonesty. That too, I do not think is something I would easily believe - possible, yes.

Dan Knapp
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dan Knapp » Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:36 am

What is the basis for the statement that hospitals get paid big bucks for COVID related deaths?

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Richard Hull
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Richard Hull » Wed Aug 05, 2020 7:24 am

Interestingly, the entire state of Virginia had 9 new covid cases reported yesterday, Aug 4. I have been going out to sit down restaurants for about 2 months now. My wife and I went out to eat 4 times in the last 9 days and to a friends to join he and his wife in their in-ground pool. Having a blast here. I personally consider the new positive case numbers rather irrelevant, it just indicates a number of younger and older asymptomatic people are out there. I wear a mask only when forced to go to herd among the great unwashed masses. (grocery stores and when entering a restaurant.) Otherwise, I am at home living th' good life.

For outdoor stuff I shoot rather frequently in Amelia and Louisa counties. visit my friends pool and have a few cookouts with friends.

Now to Dan's question.....Sorry, not deaths at all, but hospitals get paid all those big bucks whether you live or die!!

As 95% of all serious covids are older and are on medicare or indigent and on medicaid, the hospitals are paid $13,000 for covid pnemonic admissions who recover or die, but are not put on a ventilator prior to either recovery of death. The hospitals receive $39,000 for just putting a covid "diagnosed" patient on a ventilator whether they recover and live or if they die! All this has been in place and retroactive to all hospitals.

So well and cured or dead, the hospitals get paid. There is money set aside under the Cares Act in case the above sums are not enough. So if you are admitted from a car crash and they put you on a ventilator and you live or die and test positive for covid, asymptomatic or not, they get paid $39,000! You do not need to die at all to cash in on either option. Sorry for my mistake. You can survive and they get paid.

The pandemic is a money machine. Amazingly, it is claimed, but not proven that there is any instances or direct evidence that hospitals or doctors are gaming the system. That would be bad and mean. The GAO needs to be brought in on this to grind through the hospital's claims. In the end, the GAO would only have hospital paper records. They probably could not move out into the hospitals, nationwide, to hunt down families and claims directly. All they would have is a fistful of hospital, internally generated, paperwork. "Just send 'em the cash and be done with it"! We can print up the stuff by the metric ton!

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 000638001/

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
Retired now...Doing only what I want and not what I should...every day is a saturday.

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Dennis P Brown
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Dennis P Brown » Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:06 pm

For some general information, Scientific American offers a good article:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... ic-so-far/

This brings up a critical fact. Never trust any information about Covid from the Fox based system - it is generally not news but entertainment that often acts as a news show; as such, they are allowed to speculate and treat even made up information as fact. As such, they provide a lot of the fake news that people use and tragically, the President of the U.S..

As for hospitals getting paid, yes, that occurs for all illnesses. The amount of medical aid for Covid patients is huge since the virus attacks many people in many different ways - totally unlike any known illness except maybe Ebola - costs are going to be high. The fact doctors and nurses are dying of Covid, as well as EMT's tends to tell me no one wants this illness while working in a hospital. Also, people with secondary issues are ripe for complications - again, that spells $$$ for staying in a hospital.

As for getting paid even if the patient dies, well, we are a capitalist system and hospitals do expect to get paid, of course. The entire American healthcare system has always been a money machine - very true. Name a major illness or even just end of life costs. All cash cows for profit driven companies in healthcare (which are hospitals, too.) The number one cause of bankruptcies by individuals was the costs solely from medical bills. Unlike Europe - which has a far better healthcare system for its cost & overall health of the population - the US is both inferior and corporate profit driven and that tends to inflate our costs a good bit while lowering healthcare outcomes. So do American profit driven hospitals cheat the Government via medicare? Absolutely - see Rich Scott and how his company stole billions via false Medicare billing yet he is now the Senator for Florida; who said crime doesn't pay? So I guess to some extent I agree with your statement that some deaths might be profit driven and not solely or covid at all. That said, it is a small number for the reasons I outlined previously.

Virginia has average nearly a thousand new cases a day over the last week - see graph displayed below; do you mean deaths for a given day? For Tuesday, there were 26 deaths that day in all of Virginia; there were 6 in Northern Virginia for that day; so a given region within the State will have a different number - which might be where the data point you quote comes from? (Data from InsideNOVA). The InsideNOVA data follows the CDC information - which is a bit harder to get at. Total Covid deaths for Virginia was listed as 2244 to date. Daily deaths are getting hard to figure out in general or posted thanks to the Administration new restrictions so not too surprised if numbers aren't accurate between sites/sources. That, again, is totally irresponsible and something I never thought any administration would do except during war.

The latest Virginia death rate is a bit high for the death/cases per day (26/1000) * 100 = 2.6% compared to the long term average for Covid that is considered about 1-2% (this is based on assuming the cases from two weeks.) Still, that is a rather high death rate compared to the common flu (under 0.5%) and as you pointed out, Covid costs far more to treat thanks to its vast number of complications.

If you want to compare total deaths (either for the US or by State) for other years to this years data, this site has an excellent graph.

https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-re ... c-by-state
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New Covid cases by day for Virginia
Last edited by Dennis P Brown on Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:06 pm, edited 11 times in total.

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Frank Sanns
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Re: Coronavirus pandemic

Post by Frank Sanns » Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:32 pm

Looking at the change in the number of deaths for a particular day can show what is really going on. On average, there will be a certain number of people that die each day of all causes. The number goes up just a little in winter when it is flu season and it goes down a little in summer when illnesses are less. It does not quite go down as much as you would predict because more people are out and about in summer and there are more accidents. Still, there is a floating average that shows the health of a nation or the world for that matter.

The term for this is Excess Deaths. It is actually plotted weekly by the CDC and long term data is available. Even the spike from 9/11 is in there for the US.

Here is a plot for a for the past 3 years. The average is the yellow line which shows the seasonality of deaths. It also shows the effect of the bad flu season in 2017 that afflicted over a hundred million people.

The effects of only four million cases of COVID cases can be seen starting in late March. It is quite a spike considering the very low percentage of the population that has had the infection so far. This is a quite deadly disease for many. No eating in restaurants or going mask-less for me indoors. It is Russian roulette out there right now. A deadly game of chance. Still, we have to live our lives. We just need to make those indoor adjustments and keep things at a distance outdoors and we mitigate our risks down to livable levels.
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