Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Reflections on fusion history, current events, and predictions for the 'fusion powered future.
ChrisSmolinski
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by ChrisSmolinski »

Anonymous Guy wrote:
> I have no crystal ball to tell me what our future has in store, but with so
many big issues looming its difficult for me to see a bright future ahead. I
think some our best days of our lives are already behind us, and a new era of
poverty and dispair is less than a decade away. This is one conclusion I hope
to be proven wrong!

Fortunately, I think you will be proven wrong

Forecasts of imminent doom have always been with us. Man is easily able to
adapt to change, provided that change is not too drastic, in which case w're
only slightly less able to adapt, with a little more discomfort.

Oil will not suddently become unavailable, except in the case of a sudden
disruption in supply due to war/etc. Once we reach the point of limited
resources, the price will start to climb, which will push both alternatives to oil,
as well as methods of creating our own oil and petroleum products from more
available materials. We've been told for the last 50+ years that proven oil
reserves have peaked, yet somehow we keep finding MORE of the stuff. And
improved technology lets us use previously non-economical deposits.

I'm not pessimistic about the future. The future WILL BE better. The past was
NOT better. The "good old days" were not good. The nickel candy bar cost
more of your workday to earn than it does today. Will progress be an un-
interrupted straight line up? Of course not, there will always be bumps, and
short term setbacks. But I'm sure man will get through them, at least for a few
thousand more years.
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Richard Hull
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Richard Hull »

You are very optimistic Chris. More oil can always be found if the price is pretty and folks are willing to shell out for it. Worthless reserves, hard to extract, will become valuable assets, etc. Still, there is a limit.

America's core manufacturing capability is all but gone now as we become an information society selling "air" and good wishes. The infrastructure itself is the work for the elite nations.

I don't know, but one morning someone in a massive, but trailing manufacturing nation will wake up and realize they have the information folks by the short hairs.

I feel that no matter how hard it gets or what comes along, including global thermonuclear war, we will have little trouble adapting and reverting to at least an 1890's to 1910 level of production and energy capability, perhaps with vastly fewer souls on the planet.

Again, real wealth is what you hold as fixed, on site, assets coupled with its immediate, sustainable and, hopefully, recirculating, recyclable value. Skills at the lowest, hands-on, levels are of real recirculating value. Plumbing, Carpentry, electrical, electronic, mechanical repair etc. These guys may become the captains of industry in future and not the programmers and information age hacks or the money shufflers taking our money out of our pockets, playing with it and giving us a quarterly receipt telling us how rich we are in relation to all that is no longer there. We play with and accept perceived value as opposed to goods. The goods we do take in leave us oddly in debt inspite of good IRA and 401K reports. This is the bulk of America, not just a few idiots on a mindless buying spree.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
AnGuy
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by AnGuy »

>Fortunately, I think you will be proven wrong

I hope so!

> Once we reach the point of limited resources, the price will start to climb, which will push both alternatives to oil, as well as methods of creating our own oil and petroleum products from more available materials.

Well It looks like the cost of Oil is moving up! Unfortunately replacing oil isn't that simple. All the talk about replacing oil with hydrogen, Biodiesel, Ethanol is a farse! In fact all of those renewable fuels require Oil and gas to produce. Hydrogen is produced from natural gas. Ethanol needs to be distilled which requires a massive heat source (currently it's oil). Biodiesel need both hydrogen and a heat source. We also use Oil and N-gas to produce fertizlier which would be required to grow corn or soy to produce ethanol or biodiesel. If you want to learn more about the farse of renewable fuels check out www.energybulletin.net. They have recently posted a detailed article that debunks the hydrogen economy.

Now that the cost of oil is on the rise we can see some minor global discomfort. Russia is nationalizing Oil and Gas resources, China and India are traveling the globe in search of oil and N-gas contracts. The US has mobilized its forces in the Middle East. If the prices continue to rise this year, A new cold war and arms race will begin between the major nations fighting to secure the dwindling oil resources. Eventually, as the supplies get tighter a hot war could develop. On the other hand, a global recession could cool things off because it would reduce demand (at least temporarily).



> Of course not, there will always be bumps, and
short term setbacks

Depends on what you mean "short term setbacks": Geological or Human live span?

Unless a realistic subsitute is found quickly we are headed for a major setback. The World cannot sustain a population of 6+ Billion Humans without oil. We consume something like 500 exajoules to support the current infrastructure and its going to be very damn difficult to find a substitute. Not to mention the cost of changing the infrastructure to something else than oil. All those cars, trucks, planes, factories require oil. Either we need to find a very large source of energy or we need to reduce the population. I think the latter is likely to happen first. After all, we are inherently a self-destructive species. As a species we still can't seem to get along and respect either others beliefs. When the store selfs go bare, the ugly side of human nature reappears.
3l
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by 3l »

Hi AG:

You guys have more optimism than I currently possess.
I am current going more rural....infrasture costs in taxes have trippled.
The concept of the city is going tits up...too costly.
Give me the county anytime.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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AnGuy
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by AnGuy »

>You guys have more optimism
I do?

>I am current going more rural
Actually I was thinking the same. Recently I've thinking about buying a farm or large amount of land in some rural region, in perhaps a decade. Currently, I live in the NorthEast and have a very profitable business. At this point I think it would be prudent to continue to run my business while to going is good.

However, I am having difficult of identify a region that would be appropriate. I think it would be better to avoid northern regions because of difficulty of finding heating fuel for the winter. Even if I have sufficient funds, I suspect the gov't could impose rationing rather than letting price dictate supply. Coal could be an option, but who knows if gov't will permit home owners to burn coal because of environmental issues. Wood will only last so long and isn't all that more environmental friendly than coal.

On the other hand, If global warming becomes more severe, living in the south could also be a bad move. If Oil and NGas supplies dry up Coal and other heavy carbon fuels are likely be used. This would likely dramatically increase CO2 emissions and accelerate global warming. The US South East is vunerable to Hurricanes and other extreme weather events. Before the sea level rise, I think the number and severity of storms would increase as the system works off excess thermal energy.

The most of the south west is too dry and arid to consider. Plus the land is not suitable for growing crops.

The Ideal region would have:
1. Very mild winters so that heating costs are very low, and heating fuel rationing would not be a significant issue.
2. Fertial land where one can at least plant a garden to suppliment ones diet, if food rationing becomes an issue.
3. Plenty of water and where the water doesn't have to be piped in from a distance.
4. Good transportation infrastructure for the population in the region. Access Rail or some form of public ground transportation. You going to want to be able to get delivery of goods to the local stores. If the nearest store is 100 miles away its may be difficult to get there. Gasoline becomes scarce at any price because of gov't rationing. If the car becomes uneconomical I believe a good portion of the US highway would be converted to rail. All they would need to do is lay track over the road bed. Before the car, the Railroad was the only US transportation system.
5. Good Local Medical faculties. Everyone gets sick!
6. Access to high speed Internet. If I could only keep access to one medium (TV, Radio, Telephone, Internet, etc), for me, it would be the internet. I could care less about all the rest.
3l
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by 3l »

Hi AG:

You have just described Mississippi.
Shock!
Rail travel and shipping are still availible here.
The area has fertile soil and loads of rainfall.
I plan to raise trout and catfish in a small aquaculture tank.
You can plant virtually any plant in Mississippi and it will grow
fairly well.
Shallow surface wells are possible with only a 100 ft well hole.
I live near Oxford Ms...All the eminities you describe exist there.
I plan to live within 40 miles of the city. I am moving to take advantage of a crazy sellers market in Oxford. Land prices are in orbit in the city limits. I purchased the property in '96 for about
45k$ ,it is worth 70K$ (7 miles outside the central core) now. Land retails for 20k$+ per acre in town and $700/acre out of town. A no brainer!

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Mike Veldman
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Mike Veldman »

I'm curious what the draw is to your little town. LIke I'm curious what the draw is to the one I live in. The living and growing, and the infrastructure conditions you describe are similar. Our major industry is the university, with a few minor others, but the people are moving in like crazy. Land prices in town can run to 12k an acre, close outside, 4k an acre, ten miles out, west, south or north 2.5k an acre, east is a little less at 2k. We bought ten acres east of town in 96 and paid 1k an acre for it. Some close friends bought 35 acres two miles further east of us and paied 1.5k, but they have frontage on a state highway, we're a mile from the highway. Within six months of our purchase the guy we bought from offered us 1.5k to buy it back. But very few sale signs stay up even in the rural areas for long. When I moved into this house twenty years back it was pretty rural, I was on the eastern outskirts of town. I built a raised deck 12' above the patio on the east side of my house to sit and look through my telescopes. I did this to clear the tree line south of me. I could look to the east, north and south and not see a light. Now the entire panorama is dotted with yard lights. So I drive ten miles east to the new place to look at the stars, but in the last ten years the dots on the horizon have been growing. I guess a lot of people like me are moving to the country.

mike
I tried to contain myself, but I escaped.
AnGuy
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by AnGuy »

>I'm curious what the draw is to your little town. LIke I'm curious what the draw is to the one I live in.

Its not a local phenomena. Here in the northeast Builders can't build fast enough. They contine to build even when there is over a foot of snow on the ground. Where there was some wooded areas, there are now McManisons on tiny lots. Prices have more than doubled since 2000. In 2000, a small raised ranch was less than $200K, Today they are over $400K for a fixer'up'er. Tiny Condos (< 900 Sq feet) sell in the $300-$350K range. And this isn't the expensive area. There, the homes now average above $750K for a small 1800 Sq foot home with no land and no garage. Its truely ridiculous. Few folks can really afford to buy these homes, but lenders are sure willing to help them with the financing. The stock mania of the late 90's has now morphed into a real estate mania. People I bump into now talk about purchasing a vacation home as an investment. Its only a matter of time before it all comes crashing back to earth. When I meation housing bubble to them, I get the look: "what planet are you from?". When I bring up the stock bubble, the reply always is "Its different this time". Yeah Right.

>I guess a lot of people like me are moving to the country.

I would suspect much of this is "investment" property, that people are buying to build a second (vacation) home or to rent it out in hope to make some money.

Note: This week Bankruptcy reform was just passed in the House. Just in time for the Real Estate Bubble to go bust.
Edward Miller
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Edward Miller »

interesting article ain the la times about the real estate bubble.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-e ... &cset=true

if it requres a login you can use www.bugmenot.com
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Richard Hull
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Richard Hull »

It is all smoke and mirrors...............

There are, actually, many bubbles about to burst.

It is all about "grabin' yours" and screw all the rest of 'em. There are many other such "grab and runs" active in the economy whereby slick schiester's fleece the flock. A huge percentage of these are extremely well constructed around stock holdings that are not held, bonds that are not there and I fear that the 401K programs are as solid as the faith people put in them.

It will all have to shakeout with any serious adjustments towards reality in financial dealings. I predict that the S&L and Enron scandals will pale against the coming 401K meltdowns. Rest assured that no one will pay for this debacle who has not already paid into their 401Ks. I have a 401k.

There is just too much apparent wealth flowing about with multi-trillion dollar debt and matching deficits.

Here....Have another platinum VISA card..... No interest for 12 months!

Buy this living room suite... no payments until 2007!

New Chevy Suburbans on sale below dealer cost... zero down and low interest rates with 6 years to pay.

Where is the real money?... The cash? Who pays the workers that built that Chevy while the purchaser takes years to pay? Is there no backlog in the money source?

The answer is that GM can use their accounts receivables (the multi-year debt on that Suburban) as a true and real asset in obtaining loans to pay their workers today.

Ever seen a cat chase its tale?

There is countless trillions locked up in accounts receivables and unpaid debt all of which is far out in front of, and an overburden on, an out of control buying spree.

Rest assured the buying glut can and will stop on a dime and all that tailgating overburden will result in a multi-institutional rear-ender that will leave all asking "where's th' beef"? The answer is that there never was enough beef to go around just the unending promise of beef to come.

If cash money is just a certificate of deferred wealth that the bearer has chosen to delay receiving but is honored by all institutions and merchants, then how much weaker is accounts receivables that rely on countless millions of individuals to pay back over ever extened periods and not declare backruptcy.

Sure, such economic slights of hand expand the economy and allow high standards of living. The economy expanded in the late fifities, ballooned in the 80's and this balloon is ready to burst in the new millenium. We are already seeing this heralded by tiny little multi-billion dollar shell games collapse.....no matter....the good ship lolli-pop just sails on.

The little guy, who usually financed, all of these multi-billion dollar boon doggles raises hell for a bit, but is soothed back to sleep with 4 more credit cards he can max out and other perks where actual money is not needed to enrich himself. So everybody seems to be "gettin' theirs".

There is just too much fake wealth all assembled and accumulated in ledger books. All of it is based solely on accounts receivables and massive debt being considered as good as gold by those holding the debt and by lending institutions willing to lend them more based on same.

Right now we are kept groggy and off our guard in a manner similar to what follows..........

It is late at night....almost too late......we find ourselves quite comfortable, but standing in the middle of railroad tracks with several folks we know and trust, some of whom are old friends, standing just off the tracks but with us as a group. We see a light in the distance piercing the night somewhat in alignment with the tracks. We note to the others that we ought to move off as we think a train is coming. Immediately one of our trusted advisers says that we must be mistaken and continues to engage us in conversation.

As the light gets brighter, we become more concerned and interrupt our friends banter with yet another warning, but one of the more reasonable of our friends notes that the blanket statement that a train is approaching is a bit premature and rather assumptive on our part.

The light is really bright now and the alignment with the rails is near perfect. Remember, only you and I are in the tracks.

Again, we protest with more vigor. Now all of our trusted friends jump in and ask us to consider other possibilities and not continuously whine about a train when any number of other alternatives are to be suggested. Some even offer alternate possible scenarios that are far less ominous and appear to be be well crafted explanations.

By now, we are almost like deer caught in headlights.....frozen, but still listening to advice given by people we have grown to trust.

When do we leap off the tracks? Are we so used to advice and comforting assurances that we will allow the train to hit us? We seem to know one thing for sure... If it is a train, we will take the hit and our friends, who are not on the tracks, will be spared....Will we move? Probably not. Many of our kind have been hit before by allowing the siren's song to immobilize us. Others in our herd watch passively.

As we are hit, others from the herd note that our old friends all move off quietly until another night when they return and take others of the herd to the tracks for conversations.

Too bad. The herd always figures there is safety in numbers and each member figures, "what is the probability my number is up"?

In the end, it is energy that will be the measure of wealth as folks scramble to stay warm and run all their cool stuff they bought just before "The great collapse of 'aught' nine". I just don't see fusion anywhere in this picture.

Richard Hull
Progress may have been a good thing once, but it just went on too long. - Yogi Berra
Fusion is the energy of the future....and it always will be
The more complex the idea put forward by the poor amateur, the more likely it will never see embodiment
3l
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by 3l »

Hi Mike:

All the choice east coast real estate is being bought up with depreciated dollars.by foreiners...west coast too. That drives
American folks into the hinterlands. In turn that drives up the cost of marginal land.

Hi Richard:

Your last post pretty sums up why I've been absent lately from the fusornet. I am restructuring my liife to deal with the coming freight train. I now possess enough solar panels and wind mills
to support my new life style. For sale is my energy eating house
with it's ton of taxes. I will draw No city services...at all. My new house is all metal with 4 feet of blown insulation on ten acres.
I want to live my dream of the prosumer in real time. I had to really shift my thinking to make the leap.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
Fusor Tech
ebeuerle
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by ebeuerle »

Larry,
I am trying to pursue this route with a move down to North Carolina. If possible I would love to know your plans/results in detail as I am not exactly sure where to start-but I do know I want off the grid in the near term along with producing as much food on my own as I can.
-Eddie B.

ps
You can send private email to ebeuerle@excite.com if you dont want to post here:)
3l
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by 3l »

Hi Edward:

I don't mind posting here one bit.
The question to ask yourself is what cost is escallating fastest.
It is energy obviously.
I have taken two approaches to this problem.
One gather wind and solar panels to generate electricity.
But the really tricky part is how much to buy?
When I first started 6 kw was the first figure ,I computed back 5 years ago.
Back then I was tying to make my 1965 style house work.
It turned out I would need around $20k+ worth of gear to support it.
It was impractical...no matter how hard you crunched the numbers the wooden stich house of the late 19th and early twentieth century was never gonna work.
So I abandoned this approach and started with a fresh sheet of paper.
The main 110v powerhog was heating food,heating and cooling the house and illumination. Looking at my 20K+ budget...if I didn't use 110 volt stuff everywhere I could get by with less that $2k of inverters. 12 volt is much safer to use and won't burn your house down . An added plus is that a very expensive electrician fee is eliminated. Heating and cooling can be eliminated entirely by proper design. A wall with four feet of blown insulation would approximate the insulative quallities of an underground house without all the expense and headache of dirt structures. A proper selection of the blown insulation will make it a much safer house by far than even the best wooden house.
Borated cellulose would repell bugs and vermin. Rats plus wooden houses with 110volt wiring equals burned down house.
Seperated runs of 12v reduce the hazard by a factor of ten easily.
Using this hyper insulated design reduces the average energy usage down below a kilowatt per day per person.
So in my area 20K+ al little more will site my house ,buy the land,pour the concrete slab, Erect the structure, and sheave it in metal siding.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
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Adam Szendrey
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Adam Szendrey »

Hi Larry,

The idea of having my own little land with my own little house, along with my own little powerplant(s), is rather tempting, even if there would be no power shortage or high energy prices on the horizon. Being independent is always great. There are some beautiful pieces for land for sale here, which are realtively cheap, as they don't have any utilities. Though even that "relatively cheap" ($ 5-10k) is a LOT or me at the moment. But i will eventually get the required amount of cash together. Right now i cannot truly decide if i should hurry up or not.

Adam
ebeuerle
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by ebeuerle »

Excellent info Larry. If you start construction-it would be great if you would post pictures as you slowly build it:) I am close to moving down to NC from Northern VA(too crazy around here to buy anything of value). I hope to buy some isolated land that is cheap and do close to what you are planning on doing. Would be nice to follow you along:)
-Eddie B.
Q
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Q »

edward,
what part of nc are you moving to? i am in the western end (mountains) and i think brian williard is almost at the opposite end of the state.

i am working towards my energy independance as well. currently i am about to put up a few small wind generators and start construction on some fusion (solar) collectors. in the near future i hope to have the house disconnected and only have the electric utility connected to the lab.

hope the move goes well,
Q
ebeuerle
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by ebeuerle »

Q,
My job would be in Charlotte, NC so somewhere near there I suspect. I have heard that living in SC I might be able to afford some decent amount of land. I am probably going to be flying down there in a couple of weeks to do some land/house shopping.
Thanks for the kind words!
-Eddie B.
Q
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Q »

ok, so that'll put you close to the middle of the state. charlotte is a good area to be around, there is much going on there. though, it is the largest city in the state. but yeah, just across the state line in sc, you should be able to find a good bit of land at a decent price. if i remember correctly, it's mostly farmland.

Q
3l
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by 3l »

Hi Guys:

I recently dusted off my 10 kv pulse rig.
Replaced the bell jar with a conflat ss tube in the z pinch mode.
Pulled a 1 torr vacuum
Backfilled the tube with deuterium gas to 100 torr.
I can get 10^5 neutrons fairly easily with a tiny cap.
500 shots on a single fill.
The rig ps is a 10 kv @ 1ma transformer and rectifier set by Plastic Capacitors company.
A small thyratron does the switching work instead of a spark gap.
The Kemmore 1 still makes a dandy mounting enclosure.
The storage cap has a capacity of 100J (2 uf @ 10kv)
The ps draws 10 Watts of ac...so I put a cheap 19 buck inverter on it. Since the supply puts out only 10 watts ...you can charge the cap in 10 seconds. Or 6 times a minute. So the next step was to put a solar panel on the inverter. I ran the rig all day on just sunlight. For night runs you need a storage battery. A cheepo 20-30 watt panel would be all you would need to crank out neuts in Bora Bora.
Do I need power in my shop?
I don't think so..
It is not perfected by any means BUT this is as close to portabilty as I had imagined it years ago.

Happy Fusoring!
Larry Leins
Fusor Tech
ebeuerle
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by ebeuerle »

Very nicely done!!! See you can do high voltage work using "free" power:) Woohoo and stuff!
Congrats Larry!
-Eddie B.
Q
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by Q »

hi larry,
wow! quite impressive. but how do you evacuate the chamber on such a small amount of power?

Q
AnGuy
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by AnGuy »

My concern living in South East would be Hurricanes. As the global temperate rises, the planet will work off excess heat with severe weather. The hotter it gets the more frequent and violent the storms will become, and the hurricane season will grow longer. The prime targets for hurricanes is Florida, Georgia, S.C and N.C. If we have another season like 2004, I would expect insurance to get real pricey in that region. However, It might take a few more decades before the rise in global temperature permanently changes the weather in that region. I am not a climatologist, but it only seems logical that warmer water will increase hurricanes. JMHO.
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by AnGuy »

>A wall with four feet of blown insulation would approximate the insulative quallities of an underground house without all the expense and headache of dirt structures. A proper selection of the blown insulation will make it a much safer house by far than even the best wooden house.

What will you use for the supports for the four foot space for the insulation? FWIW, I would be a little concerned using galvanized steel. The Zinc forms "Zinc Whiskers" which are bad for electroncs because the causes shorts on pcbs. I would imagine they aren't much better for lungs.

The other issues I would be concerned with is rust and condensation. Unless your using Aluminum, every hole drilled in the metal is a potential spot for rust. Since Metal is a good heat sink, it will likely cause condensation on any area exposed to air. This could promote rust and mold growth. I think the blown foam insulation holds water. if you get a leak, would end up a four foot sponge that would promote mold growth.

If your using metal studs, I think you need to some sort of rubbers spacers to avoid conduction in the studs. Otherwise your four feet of insulation could be inaffective.

I was thinking of building a wooden house but use larger studs (maybe 2/6s) to permit extra insulation, and use insulation caulking to seal the studs to the exterior plywood. Usually contractors just nail the ply wood to the studs which sometimes doesn't effectively block drafts. Wood is reasonably good as an insulator. Plus you can add sheet foam insulation to the exterior before putting up the siding.

What is your thoughts on Ground loops for heating and cooling? I was thinking about using a ground loop for summer cooling, but I am not sure how much sense it would be for heating. I think it would work well for cooling in the summer.

As far as Rats, if you seal the walls well for insulation, you need not worry about rats and mice. The move trough holes in the studs for electrical and pluming. If all these holes were back filled with calking, they will not be able to to get into the walls in the first place. Second I am a firm believer in using BX cable instead of Romex for electrical cable. Just as easy for a rat to chew a electrical cable, a human can hit the cable with a drill or nail.

As for going 12V for the household electrical, I would be concerned with finding applicances and electronics that run on 12Vs. Pretty much everything sold on the market is geared to 120VAC. The power usage in my home are heating and cooling, with the Air conditioner as the biggest current sink, followed by the furnance (uses water pump, oil pump and blower), Washer/Dryer, and kitchen applicances. I think would be difficult to find these devices that operate at 12V. Perhaps they could be converted over to 12V by replacing the motor and other components, but that seems very time consuming, and forget about getting it serviced if it breaks. Plus you will need to run extra thick cabling to run these devices since you need about 10 times the current at 12v as you do at 120V.

For everything else in the house that use electricity, the power consumption is low. All of the lighting could be replaced with LED bulbs which use next to nothing and the entertainment electronics (TV, Radio, etc) also use very little current.

On the storage side of the issue, battery technology just stinks (literately too!). You need a lot of heavy and expensive batteries that contain hazardous chemicals. They have short live spans and disposal is always an issue. I think the flywheel for energy storage is a better solution. If they use magnetic bearings, they would virtually operate like solid state devices and have virtually unlimited charge/discharge cycles. But no one is mass producting them yet.

Finally, Even if the oil does run out tommorow, there will always be access to electricity (perhaps with current limits per household). Electricity will continue to be produced using coal and nuclear. I suppose coal could also be used for home heating and hot water. If you have a few acres of land getting a few tons of coal delivered should be much of an issue. Unless the gov't restricts the use of coal.
MontyRoberts
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 11:52 pm
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Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by MontyRoberts »

Well, IMHO you are all on the right path. My house, which I consider to be an inefficient energy hog, used about $35 worth of wood to provide heat for the entire winter heating season (4-5 months). Compare this to my friends and family whining about $300/month natural gas bills or worse for heating fuel. Incidentally there is enough renewable wood on my property to heat my house indefinitely, but I trust you will understand that for $35/year it is not worth the effort to cut it.

I am located in a temperate climate, and the winter is not “warm”. The house is a retrofitted frame house. It does have 2x6in walls and 2x10 in ceilings. The walls are filled with a 6 in layer of sprayed in foam insulation. The ceilings have about 8 in of foam. It is a urethane foam that uses a soy base rather than a crude oil based urethane (not that I care, one was just cheaper and had better characteristics than the other-for instance, it does not produce cyanide gas when combusted with oxygen, something I value for my home). The key to the foam is that it seals all the air leaks, thus preventing condensation. No mold.

Rats?-get some cats.

Or if you do not like cats a Jack Russell or some other rat dog.

Don’t like animals? Traps.

Failing this get a pellet gun-rats are commonly used as a source of food in the orient. I find that a little sesame oil, garlic and red pepper do wonders.

Chickens turn ticks and grass hoppers into omelets and chicken dinners. Transmutation I swear! (note: requires some assembly)

Pigs turn garbage and snakes into pork roast and Crispy Bacon, of which there is at least one connoisseur on this list.

My house is a passive solar design. The sun provides most of the heat for the winter months. Cooling is only needed during about 2-3 months of the year. A small 1.5 ton heat pump is sufficient to dehumidify the air for comfort. If the heat pump were a ground source unit it would be even better.

My total utility bills, minus communications, are $55 per month. This is with an energy hog fridge, a dehumidifier running in the crawl space, a terribly inefficient clothes washer, an electric dryer, an electric water heater (very efficient model on a timer. If I turn it off, I still have warm water a week later), and a computer that runs continuously. At current prices it would take about $15-20K USD in wind and solar to offset my power usage completely. At $55/ month I’ll wait a while. $3K on some better appliances would be better spent.

I collect rain water in cisterns and use an inefficient jet pump and pressure tank.

Plus there is a sump pump that keeps the basement dry-terrible.

I DO NOT SUFFER ANY INCONVIENIENCE. I have a dish washer, a flush toilet, a clothes washer, a hot shower, a microwave, a computer, and a TV which I use to watch movies and DVD’s on occasion-no time for the brain rot on the boob toob. MY HOUSE IS AN ENERGY HOG. I could easily cut my consumption to 1/10th my current rate. If I were to start from scratch like Larry, I could do even better.

I read a lot of pessimism on this board and elsewhere regarding the energy situation and I feel a lot of it is unfounded. There is a great deal of waste in our society. We produce about 40% of our oil domestically. With a small conservation effort we could be independent of foreign oil.

We have many ready sources of energy available. The real problem is an energy carrier. The Germans manufactured synthetic hydrocarbons in WWII from coal. It is possible to do the same today. We have lots of coal. Simple catalytic processes from the gaslight era will save our bacon. We have lots of very diffuse intermittent energy sources. The problem is storage in a concentrated transport medium. If you are on a global warming kick and wish to close the carbon cycle-fine; electrolysis to form H2 from water, use an amine solution to collect CO2 from the atmosphere, a RWGS reaction to form CO, mix to form syngas, add a few mostly exothermic catalytic reactions and POW! You got synthetic diesel fuel, gasoline, and CH4; Instant energy carriers and an existing infrastructure to boot. The hydrogen economy is pure fiction, but the hydrocarbon economy is fact. Just close the loop. You can forget $20/barrel oil however.

If you think the exploration/extraction/transport/defense and refining of crude oil are free of cost go watch Jerry Springer.

On a recent trip, I flew over the south western US. Nothing but desert as far as I could see from 30K feet. Nothing out there but salt flats, soap bush, sage brush, and lots of abandoned oil wells. I did see quite a few wind mills, and I thought, put a wind mill, solar thermal hydrogen plant/CO2 capture and catalytic hydrocarbon plant on each one of those well sites, depending on local conditions-no problem; just a matter of economics.

Cheer up guys we are only one bad bird flu away from resolution .

Monty
AnGuy
Posts: 208
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 7:49 pm
Real name:

Re: Infrastructure - the joy and end of us all.

Post by AnGuy »

Hi Monty,

Thanks for the comments. see below:

>I read a lot of pessimism on this board and elsewhere regarding the energy situation and I feel a lot of it is unfounded. There is a great deal of waste in our society. We produce about 40% of our oil domestically. With a small conservation effort we could be independent of foreign oil.

Unfortunately 40% is unsustainable. About 20% comes from Alaska which is nearing depletion. The US can never meet its oil demand, no matter how efficent we can become. Every year the domestic production will decline.

>Simple catalytic processes from the gaslight era will save our bacon. We have lots of very diffuse intermittent energy sources. The problem is storage in a concentrated transport medium.

Those processes are hugely inefficient, At best we are talking maybe about one million bbl per day, and it would take an awful lot of infrastructure to make that figure. I suspect that most of the investment in this infrastructure will be used to support military anyway.

>If you are on a global warming kick and wish to close the carbon cycle-fine; electrolysis to form H2 from water, use an amine solution to collect CO2 from the atmosphere, a RWGS reaction to form CO, mix to form syngas, add a few mostly exothermic catalytic reactions and POW!

All these process required vast amounts of energy. They are all energy losers, meaning it takes more energy to create these fuels then than produced when consumed. The H2 economy is a pipe dream. www.energybulletin.net had a good article that debunks the H2 economy
.
I am not big worrier about global warming. Even if the US was to cap its carbon emissions, it wouldn't stop 1.4 Billion Chinese or 1 billion in India from doing what ever they please.

I don't drive an SUV, but nor do I drive a hybrid. Whats the point of conserving when the majority its going to just consume everything anyway? Conservation at the individual level or even national level is pointless. The entire world needs to be part of the plan, which of course will never happen. The day the world conserves, is the day when they are forced to by lack of supply.

>If you think the exploration/extraction/transport/defense and refining of crude oil are free

No, but the global has 150 years invested in infrastructure that is dependant on Oil. We can not simple replace 150 years of infrastructure in a decade, nor can the planet sustain 6+ billion on just coal, nuclear, and renewable energy. Plus a lot of the world doesn't have abundant supplies of coal and nuclear power.

When the oil wells in the Middle East go bust, there will be half a billion Muslims fleeing the desert called the Middle East for better places to live. At least they can't walk here to America, but they can go to Asia, and Europe. I doubt they'll head for Africa.

>Cheer up guys we are only one bad bird flu away from resolution

Doesn't sound like a very pleasant way to exit the planet, but it probably the solution that will prevail.
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